2024 Ambetter Health 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday February 25th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FOX
Last week, William Byron kicked off the season by winning the Daytona 500 and helped cash a piece of a +2200 winning ticket. Despite an anti-climatic finish under caution, I thought the racing at Daytona International Speedway was very competitive and that should be a good sign because the Cup Series will go superspeedway racing again on Sunday with the running of the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. As many are aware, Atlanta was repaved and reconfigured prior to the 2022 season. As a result of the reconfiguration and new surface, Atlanta has produced racing similar to the likes of Daytona and Talladega despite being much smaller in track size at just 1.5 miles in length.
Additionally, this year’s Ambetter Health 400 was moved to an earlier date which has yielded the unique scenario where we will witness superspeedway racing for the 2nd consecutive week when the green flag waves on Sunday. While superspeedway racing is not an ideal style of racing for handicappers and bettors, we will be deploying another similar betting approach this week in hopes to hit a 2nd straight Cup Series winner. Luckily, betting odds are pretty generous once again this week which provides bettors the opportunity to potentially select numerous drivers and still maintain sufficient ROI with each selection!
However, I would still warn bettors that racing at Atlanta is perhaps slightly less volatile than typical superspeedways. We will witness much less 3-wide racing this week due to Atlanta’s more narrow surface. I would argue that the grip level has decreased slightly with every trip to Atlanta since the repave/reconfiguration in 2022. However, we really have not seen any difference in the racing product mainly because these Next Gen cars produce a ton of drag which keeps the field bunched up. With that being said, I would still not rule out the opportunity for single-file racing this weekend especially if we see more fuel conservation this week. As a result of all these intangibles, I believe bettors should lean towards the faster “cars” this week as opposed to simply the best superspeedway “talents.”
Handicapping Strategy
As I have explained in our other previews this week, I believe bettors should approach this race with a conservative strategy. Any type of superspeedway racing creates unpredictable circumstances and there is simply no reason to overextend ourselves from a risk standpoint this early in the season. While our overall risk should be conservative, we still have an opportunity to select several drivers thanks to generous betting odds. I typically refer to this strategy as a “sprinkle” approach by taking several of the drivers with the best betting value that have the highest likelihood of running upfront all afternoon. Hopefully, we can get a little luck on our side as well!
Dynamic Averages and Expectations
As we get into potential betting options, I believe we should take another glance at our dyanamic averages that features loop data for the past 5 superspeedway races including last week’s Daytona 500 and the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta last July. As you will see in these updated metrics, Ryan Blaney holds a pretty sizable advantage over the rest of the competition with a 98.6 average driver rating. Blaney leads the likes of Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Austin Cindric as the best drivers over the last 5 superspeedway races. Behind those drivers, we see a lot of the guys that I targeted at Daytona in the likes of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Chris Buescher, and others who have been top-tier threats at these events.
Going into last week’s race at Daytona, I frequently discussed my belief that the Toyota teams had a slight advantage in the speed department. In reality, I don’t think we really witnessed any advantage by any manufacturer in last Sunday’s 500. However on Saturday, the Ford teams did flex some muscle in qualifying by taking 7 of the top 9 qualifying positions. Michael McDowell posted the fastest lap at 178.844mph to earn his 1st career pole. McDowell was followed by Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, and Kyle Larson in the top 5 starting positions. While the Ford teams appeared to have some qualifying strength, I would remind bettors that the Toyota teams qualified poorly at Daytona as well but were much better in race conditions. In Saturday’s qualifying, the Toyota teams once again qualified poorly which has done nothing but create extra value for the betting odds surrounding guys like Truex, Hamlin, Reddick, and others.
Since we haven’t necessarily seen any manufacturer advantage, I would be hesitant to lessen the chances of those Toyota drivers. Perhaps we will see a better speed narrative this weekend at Atlanta but I just see qualifying results creating differences in betting odds rather than performance trends as we approach the weekend. With that being said, the Ford teams will have some advantage to their strong qualifying spots. Like I said above, I do expect track position to be an even bigger factor this week due to the more narrow racing and difficulty to move through the pack. While the Fords will likely have an early advantage, I would expect strategy and other factors to come into play as things progress through all 400 miles.
Betting Targets
As always with this style of racing, bettors could make the case for numerous drivers and have a leg to stand on. Of course, Jesse Love proved in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race that drivers can potentially control the field at the front. Love nearly led every lap before running out of gas. While I think that feat will be far more difficult with the cars competing in the Cup Series, I do think the way Saturday’s Xfinity Series race unfolded aligns with my view of track position for this race. Guys starting upfront should have some type of early advantage and that is why I believe Joey Logano/Ryan Blaney are the clear cut top two favorites for the Ambetter Health 400. Blaney and Logano have been the best superspeedway talents in the series in the Next Gen Car, they both qualified well which means they have strong starting positions, and they also appear to belong to the fastest manufacturer (Ford) so far this weekend. All of those components paint a clear picture of who I believe will be the drivers to beat.
While Logano/Blaney are my picks to be the frontrunners, I am still looking for those drivers with the best betting value. Along with Logano and Blaney, there is a huge logjam of drivers in the +1000 – +1200 betting range. Personally, I was hoping to get better numbers on guys like Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski who have been both excellent at this style of racing and at Atlanta since the reconfiguration. While I still like both Busch/Keselowski, I’m having to look even further in the field to find true value.
As crazy as it sounds, Michael McDowell stands out with value at +2000 despite winning the pole. I thought McDowell’s odds would be much lower because this is his best style of racing. However, we are getting twice the value of McDowell as compared to guys like Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain who are arguably less proven superspeedway talents. If we look even further back, Austin Cindric, Erik Jones, and Daniel Suarez are among the guys that stand out with the most betting value. Cindric has been very strong with the superspeedway product in the Next Gen Car. Meanwhile, Jones and Suarez have posted stellar results over the last 4 races at Atlanta since the reconfiguration. I would consider this trip among my favorite drivers with betting value and somewhat realistic winning upside. Lottery style options that may be more suitable for prop bet opportunities include names like Noah Gragson and Josh Berry who both have much better ceilings than current betting odds suggests.
2024 Ambetter Health 400 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Joey Logano +1000 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1100 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1800 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +2000 (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +2800 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +4500 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Austin Cindric -110 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Josh Berry +300 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
