2024 Ally 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 30th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Superspeedway
TV: USA

After two straight days of racing in Music City, this weekend’s festivities will culminate with the running of the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway. On Saturday, the extreme heat in Nashville was among the major storylines as Cup Series’ teams participated in practice and qualifying sessions in preparation for Sunday’s Ally 400. We also saw the heat play a factor in the racing in Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250 in the Xfinity Series. While temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday, there are still a lot of unknowns surrounding the weather and the overall racing product going into this event.

For starters, there is a solid chance for rain once again this Sunday. The Cup Series brought out the rain tires to finish last week’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. However, the rain tires will not be an option this week at Nashville. If it does rain, the biggest obstacle that will throw a wrench into our handicapping is how the rain impacts the track conditions. Nashville Superspeedway is a fully concrete 1.33 mile speedway which is very sensitive to temperature changes which will make it difficult for teams and drivers to stay on top of the setup changes needed to keep their cars at the front of the field. While we have an idea of the teams/drivers who typically perform well at Nashville based on performances from the last 3 races at Nashville, this is still a very tricky venue to handicap.

As mentioned in both previous previews this weekend for the Trucks and Xfinity Series races, Nashville Superspeedway is a difficult track to handicap because it is very unique and unlike any other track on the circuit. Additionally, the concrete surface is another component that can make handicapping difficult. As a result, I would preach towards maintaining a conservative betting approach this weekend. I deviated from a conservative approach in our Xfinity Series race on Saturday and though I believe our picks were solid; we were on the wrong side of the luck factor which resulted in a significant loss. While I don’t want to back away from betting opportunities on Sunday, we must make sure our picks are sharp and have a higher degree of confidence before pulling the trigger.

Handicapping Nashville

As stated in previous previews this week, I believe the best handicapping angles for Nashville includes a combination of prior track performances with the additional element of how drivers have performed on the concrete. I know it seems like the narrative around “concrete” surfaces is overblown but in reality it is a completely different type of “feel” from behind the driver seat. Based on the speeds that are run at Nashville, I would say this track has some close comparisons to Dover which is another fully concrete surface.

The biggest difference between both tracks is the banking which is much steeper at Dover compared to Nashville where drivers must allow the car to roll the corners before getting back to full throttle. While we will not dive into how each driver performs on the concrete, just know that is something that is going into the overall handicapping equation this weekend. In terms of prior performance at Nashville, there have only been 3 races in Cup Series history at Nashville Superspeedway. As a result, I pulled together metrics, shown below, from those last 3 races to give everyone an idea of how drivers have performed in recent races at Nashville.

*Data reflects last 3 races at Nashville Superspeedway*

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Finishing Position	Avg. Starting Position	Races	Wins	Top 5 Finishes	Top 10 Finishes	Top 20 Finishes	Laps Led
Ross Chastain	117.9	2.7	9	3	1	3	3	3	103
Kyle Larson	115.6	3.3	5	3	1	3	3	3	264
Denny Hamlin	113.1	10	7.3	3	0	1	2	2	195
Chase Elliott	108.7	14.7	8	3	1	2	2	2	56
Martin Truex Jr.	99.5	15.3	17	3	0	1	1	1	132
Kyle Busch	95.0	13.7	16.3	3	0	0	1	2	76
Christopher Bell	93.1	8	18.7	3	0	0	3	3	3
William Byron	87.6	14.7	7.3	3	0	1	2	2	5
Joey Logano	84.2	12.7	3	3	0	0	2	3	4
A.J. Allmendinger	81.3	14.5	16.5	2	0	0	1	2	0
Ty Gibbs	80.9	14	16	1	0	0	0	1	0
Daniel Suarez	78.6	11.3	12.3	3	0	0	1	3	1
Tyler Reddick	75.6	22	14.7	3	0	0	0	2	33
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	75.6	14.7	22.3	3	0	0	1	2	0
Erik Jones	71.5	12.7	18.3	3	0	0	1	3	0
Bubba Wallace	69.8	15.7	20	3	0	0	0	3	0
Austin Dillon	66.9	13	24.7	3	0	0	0	3	0
Brad Keselowski	65.3	21	20.7	3	0	0	0	1	2
Chris Buescher	64.7	28	14.7	3	0	0	0	1	0
Ryan Blaney	62.6	25.3	9.7	3	0	1	1	1	1
Alex Bowman	59.3	22.3	11.7	3	0	0	0	2	9
Austin Cindric	59.1	17	24	2	0	0	1	1	0
Michael McDowell	57.4	19	24.7	3	0	0	0	2	0
Harrison Burton	52.9	23	28.5	2	0	0	0	0	0
Corey LaJoie	51.9	18.3	27.3	3	0	0	0	3	0
Ryan Preece	50.7	24	22.5	2	0	0	0	1	0
Justin Haley	47.7	27	17	3	0	0	0	0	0
Chase Briscoe	46.5	32	20.7	3	0	0	0	0	5
Noah Gragson	43.5	26	30	1	0	0	0	0	0
Todd Gilliland	32.8	29.5	30	2	0	0	0	0	0

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Earlier today, Denny Hamlin conquered the heat by putting down the fastest lap in qualifying with a speed of 160.354mph. Rookie Josh Berry qualified in the 2nd position to continue his hot streak as of late. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Brad Keselowski rounded out the top 5 qualifying positions. For what it’s worth, Larson won the inaugural race at Nashville during the 2021 season and has never finished outside the top 5 in all 3 races at Nashville. Ross Chastain is the only other driver to finish in the top 5 in all 3 races at Nashville and Chastain is the defending winner at Nashville going back to last year.

Before teams qualified on Saturday, there were split practice sessions between two different groups of competitors. All of the fast lap times came from the opening group (A) in practice which took home the top 10 fastest lap speeds, due to cooler track conditions. Since track conditions were so different between the groups, I think it is important to base our observations in a split format as well. Trying to compare everyone on the same scale would be irresponsible. Therefore in the opening group, I thought Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney, and Bubba Wallace were among the most impressive cars. Gibbs and Wallace are somewhat surprise stories but Blaney appears to be hitting his stride with the #12 team in recent weeks. It’s also worth noting that Ross Chastain and Josh Berry were also within striking distance in that group.

In the second group (B) in practice, I thought that Martin Truex Jr and Chistopher Bell stood out as the best guys on lap times. Therefore, I was somewhat surprised when Truex had a disappointing 17th place qualifying effort. However, I will say that all of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars looked strong which includes Truex, Bell, Hamlin, and Gibbs. Hamlin never gives his best efforts in practice but proved how fast the #11 car is in qualifying. Behind some of those big names, I would also say that the Richard Childress Racing cars of Austin Dillon and Kyle Busch have shown more pace this weekend. In last week’s race at New Hampshire, those cars were downright awful and they appear to be more competitive this week. I would also mention Corey Heim as another driver that showed really good pace in practice. Despite a poor qualifying effort, do not discount Heim’s chances to have a quality showing in his 3rd Cup Series start.

Betting Targets

In terms of current betting odds, I don’t see any value in the outright favorites that include Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson who are both at less than 5-1 betting odds. While both drivers should be among the heavy threats on Sunday, Nashville Superspeedway is one of those venues where favorites rarely dominate. For that reason, I believe bettors can chase value because track position can flip this race in an instance. As a result, I believe guys like Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Ross Chastain offer significant value based on current betting odds. All 3 drivers have shown excellent trends at Nashville and the Bell/Byron combination have been equally strong throughout the year on similar surfaces.

Based on current momentum and performances on similar surfaces, Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Blaney also come to mind as ideal betting targets. Truex has yet to win this year but has been among the fastest drivers at several races in recent weeks. Needless to say, Truex appears due for a victory. Meanwhile, Blaney has been among the best in the entire series in recent weeks. Further back in the field, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suarez, and Austin Dillon are among the drivers that should best the current suggested ceilings. Both Suarez and Dillon are listed at 200-1 odds or greater. While I don’t necessarily believe either driver will be a dark horse for the win, I can see some prop bet opportunities with realistic top 10 ceilings!

Draftkings Ally 400 Optimal Lineup at Nashville

2024 Ally 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Martin Truex Jr +800 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1000 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1100 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1600 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -130 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Chase Elliott -115 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Chris Buescher -105 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Alex Bowman +250 wins Group 4 (Busch, Wallace, Cindric)(1 unit)
Austin Dillon +850 finishes Top 10 (early bet)(.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +6000 finishes Top Chevrolet (.25 unit)