2024 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 20th, 2024. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: FS1

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series steps into the spotlight for the running of the Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway. As many are aware, Talladega is one of the most exciting venues on the NASCAR schedule that has produced countless exciting finishes and many upset winners. However in recent years, the Xfinity Series superspeedway races have been dominated by Austin Hill. In fact, Austin Hill has already captured two victories earlier this season at Daytona and Atlanta which both produce superspeedway style racing. In total, Hill has won 6 of the last 13 races at superspeedway venues which is absolutely phenomenal. On Saturday, Hill will once again be the overall betting favorite for the Ag-Pro 300.

While Hill’s dominance has been incredible and among the greatest superspeedway runs in Xfinity Series history, he has still never won at Talladega Superspeedway. I believe the reason for that is relatively simple. Unlike Daytona and Atlanta which are relatively narrow superspeedways, Hill has been unable to control the race at Talladega where the racing groove is much wider. Leaders have a much more difficult time controlling the race at Talladega because of the wide surface which is harder to block runs from behind. For this reason and others, Talladega has produced the most surprise winners because track position is hard to defend and sometimes it’s simply about being in the right position at the right time in the final laps.

For this reason, I believe Talladega is the ultimate betting wildcard. At Daytona and Atlanta, you can get away with betting favorites who have routinely emerged at the front of these unpredictable races. At Talladega where things are a true wild card, betting on favorites will absolutely ruin long-term ROI. Betting strategy for this weekend is just as important as the betting selections. We must make an attempt to get the most drivers/value out of our betting lineup as possible and hope for some luck to fall our way. Additionally, I would remind everyone that I typically stay away from H2H match-ups completely at Talladega because match-up outcomes are usually determined by attrition rather than performance. However, we may still take aim at a couple of prop bets if we can find the betting value to support the action!

Talladega – Xfinity Betting Notes

• Austin Hill has won both prior races (Daytona/Atlanta) on superspeedways this season.
• Teammate Jesse Love led the most laps (191 total) at both Daytona and Atlanta this season.
• Jeb Burton is the only driver in the field with multiple (2) career victories at Talladega.
• AJ Allmendinger is the only other driver in the field with a prior win (2022) at Talladega.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 9 straight races at Talladega.
• The eventual race winner has started inside the top 10 in 7 of the last 9 races at Talladega.
• Parker Kligerman has finished 6th or better in the last 3 starts at Talladega.
• Alongside Jeb Burton’s two Talladega wins, he has also never finished worse than 17th in 7 career starts which have produced four top 7 finishes.
• AJ Allmendinger has top 7 finishes in 4 of 6 career starts at Talladega.
• Sheldon Creed is the only driver to produce a 100 + driver rating over the last two races at Talladega.

Betting Targets

Since practice and qualifying observations can be thrown out the window this weekend, we don’t have many other handicapping angles other than stats and trends, like those shown above, that correlate to drivers that have either performed well or found ways to finish these races at Talladega. Beyond taking those statistics into consideration, we really just have to build a lineup that yields several winning options while keeping a low-risk approach. If you look at the top dozen guys, I don’t think odds offer any value for overall favorite Austin Hill despite how good he is at this style of racing. However, I think you could make legitimate arguments for a lot of drivers behind Hill since the odds get much better! Justin Allgaier, AJ Allmendinger, Sheldon Creed, and Jesse Love have all shown reasons to warrant betting consideration and are getting decent betting odds. Personally, I believe Love may be the best option among the drivers within the range of favorites based on odds/value.

I would also point to the likes of Cole Custer and Parker Kligerman as options with even better betting value than the list of names above. Personally, I like Custer more at his current number despite Kligerman showing the better superspeedway stats. Behind the favorites and intermediates, there are even better value options from drivers that I believe will add ROI value in both prop bet and futures formats. The drivers that I believe bring that type of value to betting cards include Jeb Burton, Ryan Sieg, and Brandon Jones. Sieg was one of my prop bet picks last week which cashed at +1200 but in reality Sieg was inches away from pulling out an outright victory at Texas.However, Sieg will have another shot to get back to victory lane again this week because he has been an excellent superspeedway driver when he stays out of trouble.

For Jeb Burton and Brandon Jones, Burton is a two-time winner and still a long shot simply because of the equipment factor. While I understand the odds, Burton has proved time and time again to be in position in the closing laps. For that reason, we can consider Burton a solid low-risk option. Meanwhile, Brandon Jones is in a similar betting odds range and while I absolutely hate betting on Jones because I don’t think much of his talent; I will admit that his chances are not that bad at Talladega based on his experience and the strength of the J.R. Motorsports cars at the superspeedway venues. Needless to say, I think Jones is a legitimate betting option. If you want even deeper lottery style long shots, Brennan Poole and Josh Williams are drivers that I would consider. Williams has shown solid results at the superspeedway races and despite struggling this season; he is in much better equipment than he has been throughout his Xfinity Series career. For Brennan Poole, he is another guy that seems to find a way to finish races and has capitalized on attrition to produce top 5 finishes in 2 of his last 3 starts at Talladega.

2024 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Jesse Love +1400 (.75 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1400 (.75 unit)
Cole Custer +1600 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +2000 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +2200 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +3000 (.5 unit)
Matt DiBenedetto +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Sieg +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Matt DiBenedetto +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Brennan Poole +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)