2023 Yellawood 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 1st, 2023. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: NBC

Last week, William Byron became the first driver to secure their spot into the Round of 8 of the Cup Series’ playoffs thanks to his victory at Texas Motor Speedway. For the rest of the 11 drivers still fighting for the chance to keep playoff hopes alive, the Cup Series’ playoffs will embark on a critical two week stretch which features wildcard style races at Talladega and the ROVAL. For Sunday’s Yellawood 500 at Talladega, 11 drivers will be trying to avoid the “Big One” in order to gain ground in the championship hunt and perhaps put themselves in a position to get a victory. However, there are 25 other drivers that rightfully believe Talladega presents a winning opportunity as well and those drivers must be included in our betting discussion!

As everyone knows, superspeedway racing presents an enigma of unpredictability combined with better than normal betting odds. Because of the volatility, betting odds are far more valuable than traditional weekends and that can sometimes lead to huge paydays. However, I always encourage bettors to stay conservative at the superspeedways because we are simply not going to predict winners at a high rate due to the unpredictable nature of this style of racing. With that being said, we do aim to target betting value so when we are lucky enough to hit a winner the superspeedway races; the yield outweighs the risk over the long term.

Luckily, we were able to hit a winner on Saturday in the Craftsman Truck Series which netted us 5.5 units of profit. Therefore, I’m approaching Sunday’s Yellawood 500 with a freeroll mentality up to those very 5.5 units that we pocketed on Saturday. Therefore between futures bets and a few props, hopefully we can sweep the Talladega weekend with profits in both races. In order to set ourselves up for potential profits, we will want to look at historical analysis and trends at the superspeedway races in the Next Gen Car to hopefully provide some insight into drivers that consistently put themselves into position to score a potential win. However, keep in mind that trends and analysis are not a direct indicator towards success at Talladega. Therefore in some ways, everyone is worthy of betting consideration and that is where we must focus on the selections with the best betting value to sustain sufficient long-term ROI.

Talladega Handicapping Notes

• Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Talladega which is tied for the 2nd most all-time.
• Joey Logano (3), Chase Elliott (2), Kyle Busch (2), Denny Hamlin (2), Ryan Blaney (2), Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, Ross Chastain, and Bubba Wallace are all former winners at Talladega.
• Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (14.1) among active drivers through 15 career starts at Talladega.
• Ryan Blaney has two wins and five top 5 finishes in his last 8 starts at Talladega.
• Erik Jones has finished 9th or better in 6 of his last 7 starts at Talladega.
• Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, and Ryan Blaney have record two top 5 finishes in the last 3 starts at Talladega with the Next Gen Car.
• Despite 3 Talladega wins, Joey Logano has finished worse than 25th in 5 of his last 6 starts at Talladega.
• Chevrolet drivers have won each of the last 3 races at Talladega.
• Surprisingly, there have been 8 cautions or less in each of the last 5 races at Talladega.
• Each of the last 4 winners at Talladega have started outside the top 15 starting positions.

Dynamic Superspeedway Averages

Each time we visit the superspeedways, I like to take a look at how drivers have performed at the superspeedways as opposed to just results (finishing positions). Finishing positions can often be misleading because it does not tell how much time a driver may have been at the front of the field or in position to win a superspeedway event. As a result, I think it is beneficial that everyone at least review our dynamic averages this week which shows performance metrics from the last 5 superspeedway races. In the data from the last 5 races, bettors should take notice that the top 6 positions belong to Ford drivers.

Back at Daytona in late August, I mentioned that the Fords were starting to take control of the superspeedways and it is now clearly showing in our metrics. While I don’t think it’s necessarily important to discuss “why” the Fords are performing better at the superspeedways, just know that it is not a coincidence and I believe our betting card should have plenty of blue circles. Austin Cindric and Aric Almirola are a few drivers that are rated high in our dynamic averages that typically fly under the radar at the superspeedways. However, both Cindric and Almirola are excellent superspeedway talents and definitely deserve betting consideration in futures or prop bet formats.

Betting Targets

As my readers already know, we could make the case for every drivers’ chances this Sunday so if you have a favorite driver or guy that you feel confident towards betting; feel free to add them to your lineup. Personally, I am staying away from guys like Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Kevin Harvick this week. Though those drivers are all former winners at Talladega and have impressive stats, I just don’t like the momentum of any of those teams especially the #22 team with Logano. While I understand that momentum does not always correlate to performance at the superspeedways, I am just staying away from some of those popular names that are overvalued from a betting standpoint.

Usually, I love to have 1-2 favorites on each betting card just to have strong anchors that have a higher likelihood of winning. For potential favorite selections, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin are all among your top superspeedway talents that have been performing relatively well in recent weeks. In terms of better betting value, I would look deeper into the field for guys like Erik Jones, Aric Almirola, Chase Briscoe, and Martin Truex Jr.

Almirola’s odds were hurt earlier today when he won the pole for Sunday’s Yellawood 500 but he is still considered an intermediate range driver in terms of betting odds. Jones and Briscoe are deeper options that always seem to find the front of the field. Meanwhile, I may be the rare guy in America that believes in Truex. Despite never winning at a superspeedway track, Truex has won a ton of stages this year at the superspeedways and has very generous betting odds. For even deeper betting considerations, Carson Hocevar, AJ Allmendinger, and Harrison Burton are some guys that yield lottery style betting odds and may yield value in the realm of prop bets!

2023 Yellawood 500 Optimal Lineup

2023 Yellawood 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Chris Buescher +1400 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +1600 (.5 unit)
Kyle Busch +2000 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +2500 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +3000 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +4000 (.25 unit)

Prop Bets

Chase Briscoe +900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Harrison Burton +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +450 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)