2023 XPEL 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 19th, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FS1

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series will take center stage at Circuit of the Americas for back to back races. It is the 2nd week in a row both of NASCAR’s lower touring series have featured a Saturday double-header and this week’s races will be the first of the season at a road course venue. While road course racing is pretty common among NASCAR’s Cup and Xfinity Series, the Craftsman Truck Series only participates at two road course venues throughout the season which means Saturday’s opening XPEL 225 will be a unique betting opportunity.

As many are aware, NASCAR recently added COTA to the schedule back in 2021 meaning there have just been two races from each of the touring series at this prestigious venue. In last year’s XPEL 225, Zane Smith captured the victory in one of the wildest last laps of the season. Kyle Busch essentially dominated the race however Alex Bowman and Stewart Friesen made a divebomb effort in turn 1 on the last lap which essentially moved all 3 trucks out of the groove allowing Smith to get by to take the checkered flag. Last year’s race followed a chaotic debut by the Trucks at COTA in 2021 that took place in a heavy rain which led to several wrecks and spins throughout the field. Therefore if we have learned anything from COTA, it is to expect the unexpected.

For Saturday’s return to Austin, we have a relatively stacked entry list that features Kyle Busch in the #51, Alex Bowman in the #7, Ross Chastain in the #41, and Parker Kligerman in the #75 among others. Busch dominated in his Truck Series debut this season at Las Vegas by leading 84 of 134 laps en route to victory. Before that race, I had questioned whether Kyle Busch Motorsports would be strong out of the gates after their transition to Chevrolet over the offseason. Busch erased any doubt of performance regression which makes him the clear favorite once again this weekend. However if we take into account the volatility discussed above in the prior two races at COTA, we must give several drivers legitimate consideration for challenging for the win this weekend especially if more chaos unfolds.

Betting and Handicapping Strategy

Despite the fact I am not a huge fan of road course racing from a spectator standpoint, I absolutely love road course racing from the handicapping perspective. These races are those events where the driver accounts for so much of the speed as opposed to setups/equipment. If you are able to handicap these races correctly, bettors should be able to identify serious value in select H2H match-ups. The only downside to these road course races is that any mistake or accident can bury a driver deep in the field. Unlike ovals, it is extremely difficult to make up ground at the road course races so any mistakes could be costly from a betting standpoint. Obviously we cannot handicap errors or mistakes, we simply must hope to avoid those incidents. With that being said, bettors should be relatively aggressive towards betting these races especially in the Truck Series where odds-makers may not have a strong understanding of everyone’s road course skills. Therefore if we can find sharp value this week, we will be aggressive with our overall risk and total betting units.

Betting Targets

I wanted to get this preview posted early prior to Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions because I thought there was enough value to warrant early plays. Keep in mind, I will add final thoughts and practice observations following Friday’s sessions before finalizing lineups. For now, I wanted to draw attention to the likes of Alex Bowman and Carson Hocevar are your top names among the favorites (less than 15 to 1). I believe Bowman is an excellent pivot option against Busch. Bowman was laying down the fastest laps at the end of last year’s race and has shown to be a very underrated short track talent. In my opinion, Bowman should be a more equal favorite towards Busch as the top 3 guys with Zane Smith trailing.

I’m not exactly sure if I believe anyone outside the top 3 guys has a great chance to win this Saturday’s XPEL 225. Guys like Ross Chastain and Ben Rhodes have shown the historical driver strengths at road courses to warrant consideration. I just don’t like the situation of either of those options this week. Meanwhile, guys like Corey Heim, Stewart Friesen, and Parker Kligerman have flashed flexible moments at road courses, I don’t have much trust in their consistency from week to week. Instead of betting on inconsistent drivers, I am just going to take aim at the options that I’m sure should overachieve on Saturday.

Leading that group of H2H targets is Carson Hocevar who has shown tremendous road course skills that I would rate much higher than anyone would give credit. I believe Hocevar is an excellent H2H option among the 2nd-tier guys this week. Additionally, guys like Kaz Grala and Nick Sanchez are also guys that should be getting much more respect for their road course skills. Due to the ceiling that both drivers have, they can be considered in all betting formats. If you are looking for even deeper options to produce fantasy racing and/or H2H match-up value, don’t overlook the road course skills of guys like the brotherly duo of Taylor and Tanner Gray!

Practice Observations – Update

The Craftsman Truck Series participated in practice and qualifying sessions on Friday afternoon for the XPEL 225. The biggest storyline unfolding after Friday’s sessions surrounds the fact Alex Bowman will not make the race. As described earlier, Bowman was among the favorites going into Saturday’s race but blew a flat tire in qualifying. Since Bowman is a part-time team entry, he does not have the points to qualify for a provisional and will miss the entire race as a result. Unfortunately, I was heavy on Bowman’s chances this weekend and even took him in several bets so this eliminates one of our value plays. I guess the only fortunate side of the ordeal is that it happened before the race so any early bets will be voided because the driver must start the race for the bet to be active.

Additional good news is the fact that Ross Chastain won the pole for Saturday’s XPEL 225. Chastain was one of the drivers that I took early at exceptional value and are locked into the pole winner with salivating 12-1 odds. Chastain and Zane Smith were among the fastest guys in Friday’s practice which was slightly surprising considering Kyle Busch is in the field. However, Busch rallied back for a 2nd place qualifying effort and will be the man to beat on Saturday. Most of the other names that looked strong in Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions included several of the same names mentioned above in our preview prior to practices. The only name to add that looked surprisingly stronger than expected is Ben Rhodes. However some of the other names that I mentioned earlier in our preview like Parker Kligerman, Corey Heim, and Stewart Friesen appeared to be really competitive on the lap charts.

Draftkings XPEL 225 Optimal Lineup

2023 XPEL 225 Race Picks

*Final*

Alex Bowman +550 (1 unit) (voided due to DNS)
Zane Smith +650 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1200 (.75 unit)
Carson Hocevar +1200 (.75 unit)
Kaz Grala +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Alex Bowman -125 over Zane Smith (2 units) (voided due to DNS)
Christian Eckes -120 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)