2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race Picks

Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday November 4th, 2023. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: USA

After crowning a champion Friday night in the Craftsman Truck Series in a chaotic race, the Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to crown a champion Saturday evening at Phoenix Raceway. Unlike some could argue in the other series, I personally believe the Xfinity Series Championship features the 4 very best drivers in Xfinity competition. John Hunter Nemechek has been dominant in Joe Gibbs equipment with 7 wins on the season, Justin Allgaier has proven to be a veteran and top talent for several years in a row, Cole Custer was expected to be a favorite after returning from Cup Series competition, and young Sam Mayer has arguably been the biggest breakout driver among all series this season. Needless to say, these 4 stars will battle for an Xfinity Series Championship on Saturday!

This Saturday’s season finale will be the 2nd stop at Phoenix Raceway this season for the Xfinity Series. Back in the spring, Sammy Smith earned a victory in the United Rentals 200 in impressive fashion by leading 92 of 200 laps en route to victory. That victory remains Smith’s lone win of the season but I would also point back to the spring race as a noteworthy impressive performance by all of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars. While Smith got the victory, Ryan Truex earned a strong runner-up finish while John Hunter Nemechek led a few laps and finished 6th. In some ways, it was one of the stronger organizational performances of the season in the Xfinity Series and it will be interesting to see if the JGR cars can bring similar speed again in race trim.

From a betting perspective, I explained in yesterday’s Truck Series Championship preview that it is extremely hard to find betting value in futures (win) odds in these championship finales. More times than not, the winner of these races comes from the championship contenders who are already betting favorites. As a result, betting odds are consistently extremely conservative for the championship contenders. If we can potentially find a dark horse that could contend for a victory, that would be ideal from a value perspective. Otherwise, we will continue to put our biggest betting focus in the area of H2H match-ups in hopes to close out the year strong!

Handicapping Notes

As explained in yesterday’s preview, I like to look at the short, flatter tracks for handicapping comparisons. In Xfinity Series competition, I would list tracks like Richmond and New Hampshire as the closest comparisons to Phoenix. In those races earlier this year, Chandler Smith and John Hunter Nemechek finished 1-2 to each other in both events. Smith won at Richmond while Nemechek captured the win in Loudon. I would also note that both Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones performed very well in both of those races as well despite not contending for the outright victory in the closing laps. Both Allgaier and Jones posted 100+ driver ratings in each of those races and have historically performed well on the flatter layouts.

Additional lesser known names that have exceeded expectations, on similar layouts, include guys like Brett Moffitt, Kaz Grala, and Anthony Alfredo

Practice Observations

In Friday’s practice, John Hunter Nemechek paced the field with the fastest lap at 130.063mph. Nemechek was nearly two tenths faster than the field and also set the fastest 10 lap average late in practice with less favorable track conditions. Simply put, everyone is chasing Nemechek going into Saturday’s Xfinity Series Championship. Behind Nemechek, I thought Cole Custer was the 2nd best of the championship contenders strictly from practice observations. However, it was a very close margin between Custer, Justin Allgaier, and Sam Mayer.

Behind the championship contenders, I was really looking for a guy that could potentially steal a win on Saturday in hopes to find some betting value. I’m not sure I found a reliable dark horse for the outright win because it seems the championship contenders were the best of the field. With that being said, Sammy Smith and Chandler Smith both displayed really strong long-run speed. In watching lap times closely, both drivers were very consistent. While I’m not necessarily convinced either driver is worth betting for the outright victory, both drivers should have solid H2H value among the non-heavy favorites. Beyond those names, I would also throw out guys like Sheldon Creed and Kaz Grala both appeared to be better than opening betting odds suggested.

Betting Targets

As stated above, if you were wanting to bet on the championship drivers, I think John Hunter Nemechek is the clear favorite that could even warrant stand-alone betting value. With that being said, I do expect Justin Allgaier to run well on Saturday. Allgaier really impressed me last year battling Ty Gibbs and Noah Gragson in this race. Despite not having a strong car in that race, Allgaier really got the best of his stuff and I think he will have a better chance to get the job done on Saturday especially if something happens to Nemechek.

To be honest, this is a really tough race to identify betting value. Sammy Smith and Chandler Smith may be worth dark horse consideration for the outright win. Deeper into the field, Brandon Jones, Myatt Snider, and Brett Moffitt appear to be the drivers that are significantly undervalued. Jones has been a disappointment throughout the season but has shown high ceiling speed in recent races. Meanwhile, Snider is getting another opportunity with the #19 at Joe Gibbs Racing this week. Snider has been solid in his prior appearances with JGR and has a much higher ceiling than current betting odds suggest. Both Snider and Moffitt appear to have the best H2H match-up potential; additionally Kaz Grala may provide a bottom-tier option as well.

2023 Xfinity Series Championship Optimal Lineup

2023 Xfinity Series Championship Betting Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +150 (2 units)
Sammy Smith +800 (.75 unit)
Chandler Smith +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Justin Allgaier +105 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Austin Hill -115 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Riley Herbst -115 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Myatt Snider +375 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)