2023 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 29th, 2023. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: MartiTV: NBC

Just one race remains to decide the championship contenders for next week’s season finale at Phoenix. Currently, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are the two drivers that have already secured their championship bid to Phoenix courtesy of their wins at Las Vegas and Homestead. On Sunday, two additional drivers will earn their spot in the championship finale by either capturing a win or earning enough points to advance. Everything will be decided when the green flag waves for short-track racing at Martinsville Speedway and the running of the Xfinity 500.

From a betting standpoint, I want to be upfront and honest that I believe bettors should be very cautious towards betting Sunday’s Xfinity 500. In the 3 races run at Martinsville Speedway in the Next Gen Car, these races have yielded minimal passing and essentially unfolded by a game of track position. In fact if you look at the last 3 races at Martinsville Speedway, there has not been a single race with more than 10 lead changes. To put things into perspective, there were a minimum of 14 lead changes in each of the 4 races prior to the Next Gen Car. Therefore even if we do pick the guys with the fastest car on Sunday, it does not necessarily equate to profits and that is a scary proposition from a betting standpoint.

With those things in mind, we will attempt to get the most out of our betting selections this weekend. I will be looking for futures (win) bets that yield considerable upside to give us low-risk/high reward selections to bring optimal ROI to our lineups. Meanwhile, I believe H2H bets will likely provide the sharper opportunities and perhaps better paths towards a profitable afternoon. Therefore, we must do a good job towards picking guys that should exceed when current betting odds suggest they will run and/or find the guys that have a greater likelihood of under-performing this week. Therefore, let’s dive into all of the tangibles for handicapping Sunday’s Xfinity 500!

Handicapping Strategy

Each week our handicapping formula is slightly different than the week before based on the venue. For this week’s race at the half-mile paperclip at Martinsville, I believe historical narratives are just as important, if not more important, than in-season performance trends. For in-season performance trends, bettors can take a look at our dynamic averages (short tracks) which provides performance metrics for the last 5 races on short tracks this season. However, I will be putting heavier weight towards drivers’ resumes at Martinsville because I do believe there is a unique skill set required to getting around Martinsville successfully.

Back in the spring race, I provided a breakdown of the prior 5 races at Martinsville Speedway by collective loop data metrics that you can see here:. In that viewpoint, we can see that Chase Elliott had a big advantage over the other competitors. However, there are a lot of drivers that have produced really strong results during the same time period. Those drivers include the likes of Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, Martin Truex Jr, and Christopher Bell. Back in the spring, Kyle Larson earned the victory in the NOCO 400 over several of those same names which included Logano (2nd), Truex (3rd), and Hamlin (4th).

In that particular race, we saw several Ford drivers have outstanding afternoons. Ryan Preece led a career-high 135 laps, Chase Briscoe led a season-high 109 laps, while several other Ford competitors posted quality performances. I point out the anomalies of the Ford because outside of those observations, the rest of our prior loop data metrics and historical narratives were pretty consistent. Furthermore, the Ford drivers have struggled significantly during the 2nd half of the season which diminished the possibility that they will return to Martinsville with any type of advantage. As a result, I think we can trust the historical narratives for a solid foundation going into Sunday!

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On Saturday, Martin Truex Jr earned his 3rd pole of the season by setting the fastest lap in qualifying at a speed of 94.135mph. Truex has struggled throughout the playoffs but he has also won 3 times at Martinsville in his last 8 starts. While Denny Hamlin leads the Cup Series with 5 career wins at Martinsville, Truex is 2nd on the list with all of those wins coming in the last 4 years. While Truex’s expectations were greatly enhanced by his qualifying position, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell were all among the guys that qualified really well. Larson and Bell have both performed well in recent races at Martinsville and will have the luxury of not racing for points on Sunday which also strengthens their chances at a victory.

Strictly in practice, I thought the opening group (A) had a clear speed advantage with cooler track conditions. William Bryon, Corey Lajoie, and Austin Cindric appeared to be the best of the opening group. Both Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs also fired off well but struggled a bit with handling issues. In Group B which was likely unfavorable conditions, Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick emerged as guys that could be ignored on the stopwatch. Both Reddick and Busch posted some really good long-run speed averages that was evident in the 15-20 lap consecutive average categories. Behind those two guys, the likes of Martin Truex Jr, Ryan Blaney, and Bubba Wallace also displayed strong speed. Meanwhile if we look at both practices holistically, I would list guys like Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Ross Chastain were least impressive based on pre-race expectations.

Betting Targets

I must admit that it seems hard to predict an outright favorite for Sunday’s Xfinity 500. For that reason alone, I think betting odds are overvalued because names like Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex are simply overvalued at 4-1 odds. Both drivers are probably upper echelon picks on Sunday however I cannot justify their current betting odds. From a sharper perspective, I really like Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson as better outright favorites based on current betting odds. Both drivers are listed anywhere from 8-1 to 10-1 with likely a similar winning probability as the outright betting favorites.

Behind the guys that are listed or known as potential “favorites,” I would list names like William Byron and Joey Logano as near must-plays based on current betting odds. Both drivers have been among the best talents at Martinsville in recent years and are getting extremely generous betting odds. Meanwhile, I believe you could make viable and strong arguments for Tyler Reddick and Kyle Busch based on betting odds and how each driver performed in practice. The problem with both Reddick and Busch is that neither driver has shown any trend of success at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car. As a result, my personal ceiling projection may be much lower than current betting odds suggest.

In H2H formats, Joey Logano, Chase Briscoe, and Aric Almorla are among my favorite betting targets based on current odds and projected match-ups. The key will be finding those targets in match-ups against guys that I believe are overvalued. I would likely also add Ross Chastain to that list as well. Chastain is current listed at 40-1 odds because he has not looked great thus far this weekend. However, Chastain has been really good with the Next Gen Car at Martinsville finishing 5th, 4th, and 13th in his last 3 starts. As a result, I think Chastain will also have a much higher ceiling against those in a similar betting odds range!

2023 Xfinity 500 Optimal Lineup

2023 Xfinity 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +800 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +900 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1200 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Joey Logano -130 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Chase Briscoe -115 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Ryan Blaney -145 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Christopher Bell +650 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +650 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)