2023 Wurth 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 30th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Dover International Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the Monster Mile on Sunday for the running of the Wurth 400 at Dover International Speedway. As I mentioned in yesterday’s A-Game 200 preview, NASCAR will likely be battling Mother Nature throughout the remainder of the weekend. Luckily, the rain held off for Saturday’s A-Game 200 and we were able to profit a few units thanks to some solid H2H plays. However, the forecast looks pretty bad ahead of Sunday’s scheduled Wurth 400. Whether we race on Sunday or into Monday, let’s discuss our best betting strategy for racing at the Monster Mile!

Before we dive into the specifics of Dover International Speedway, I would like to point out that qualifying was canceled on Saturday which means the starting lineup will be set by the rule book. As a result, Kyle Busch will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag following last week’s win at Talladega. Teams and drivers did have a brief window to practice on Saturday. Rain actually delayed the start of the Cup Series’ only scheduled practice and actually curtailed the end of practice prematurely. In total, most teams were able to complete about 15 laps which is relatively small when you consider the fact that Dover often produces long green flag runs where lap times vary significantly towards the latter laps of those runs. Therefore, we likely do not have any indications of the desired “long-run” speed for Sunday’s main event.

Luckily, the concrete surface at the Monster Mile has a habit of producing valuable historical trends. Concrete surfaces definitely have a different grip composition and some drivers excel on those types of surfaces. In terms of a recipe for success, drivers must attack the corners aggressively and have a setup/car under them that will keep turning throughout the turn. A driver’s biggest nemesis at Dover is a car that moves to the “tight” side or simply stops turning in the corners. Therefore, setup will be equally as important as the driver on Sunday to help maximize corner speed and keep the tires from wearing more significantly than others. Of course with the parity of the Next Gen Car, drivers are already within razor thin margins of each other which will likely equate to another race focused around “track position.”

Dover Cup Series Notes

Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at Dover
Chase Elliott (2) (defending winner), Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Alex Bowman are also former winners at Dover. *Josh Berry will be driving the #48 for Alex Bowman who suffered an injury last week at Talladega.
Kevin Harvick has finished 6th or better in 7 of his last 8 starts at Dover.
Kyle Larson leads all drivers with the most laps led (282) over the last 4 races despite only competing in two races. (Larson missed both 2020 races due to suspension)
Chase Elliott has finished in the top 5 in 9 of 12 career starts at Dover
Ryan Blaney has just two top 10 finishes in 12 career starts at Dover
Last year’s Wurth 400 produced 13 cautions which was the most since 2017. No other races during that stretch have produced more than 7 cautions
The eventual winner has started from the 2nd starting spot in 5 of the last 11 races at Dover

Practice Observations

As I stated earlier, I’m not sure if we really learned anything from practice outside of those drivers that fired off really well in terms of short-run speed. Brad Keselowski laid down the fastest lap of the afternoon with a speed of 158.660mph. Keselowski has been running very well in recent weeks for the first time since taking over at RFK Racing and it appears the team’s momentum has continued into Dover. Additional drivers that fired off well included the majority of the Hendrick Motorsports cars. William Byron and Chase Elliott both led group A in the early laps with Joey Logano in close proximity. In group B, Martin Truex Jr, Josh Berry, and Austin Cindric were a few of the guys that were really fast in the early laps and perhaps surprised some folks.

Dover has traditionally been one of Truex’s best tracks and the site of his first career win back in 2007. Despite some struggles in the Next Gen Car, Truex had one of his better practices of the season for as long as the session lasted. Some notable names that did not meet or exceed expectations included Kyle Larson who has been excellent at Dover. Larson’s struggles were somewhat surprising considering all of the other Hendrick Motorsports cars showed solid speed. Meanwhile others drivers that appeared to be well off of expectations included Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell, and AJ Allmendinger. Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, and Daniel Suarez all went for spins in practice. Dillon will be forced to a back-up car.

Dover Loop Data

As a reminder, practice observations should be held with a grain of salt. Not only did teams have just a few minutes to practice but track conditions will likely be much different when the green flag waves. Additionally, teams will be able to work on their cars overnight. Therefore, I am going to look back at our historical data at Dover International Speedway to help put our betting focus on the right angles. As I mentioned earlier, concrete surfaces often produce trends at the driver level that are worth following. In terms of the Monster Mile, I compiled loop data for the last 5 races at Dover which are shown below:

As you will see below, Kyle Larson has been excellent in his 3 starts at Dover with a lucrative 126.0 average driver rating. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex have also all averaged triple digit driver ratings which is not surprising when you consider each one of those drivers typically excel at long-run speed tracks which is a key component to Dover. On the flip side of our loop data rankings at Dover over the last 5 races, I would also make mention of the relatively poor results from the likes of Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Bubba Wallace who all have average running positions outside the top 15.

*Data reflects last 5 races at Dover and includes drivers with at least two starts*

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	126.0	3.0	11.0	3.0	4.7	15	193	436	1200
Kevin Harvick	114.3	9.4	6.6	4.8	6.2	71	168	223	1822
Denny Hamlin	111.5	5.4	5.8	10.6	7.4	44	163	402	1821
Martin Truex Jr	108.8	8.8	7.2	7.4	6.6	26	165	124	1821
Alex Bowman	99.7	13.2	6.0	7.0	10.6	78	141	100	1820
William Byron	92.4	14.6	7.2	14.2	11.0	-5	49	23	1816
Kyle Busch	90.4	14.8	16.2	10.8	14.0	65	89	106	1815
Brad Keselowski	87.3	14.0	11.0	12.8	10.4	-4	14	9	1820
Ryan Blaney	86.4	9.8	13.8	19.8	12.4	-22	25	45	1715
Chase Elliott	81.4	6.8	20.8	17.2	19.4	36	133	100	1125
Joey Logano	80.1	12.6	18.0	16.4	16.4	12	53	15	1793
Ross Chastain	78.4	20.0	19.7	16.3	17.0	23	41	86	1180
Aric Almirola	76.2	17.4	15.4	19.4	16.4	17	33	22	1717
Chris Buescher	75.8	10.0	18.4	18.2	16.2	-59	15	18	1653
Austin Dillon	75.2	20.6	14.0	15.8	15.8	-32	31	49	1817
Erik Jones	72.9	15.6	16.8	16.2	16.2	13	6	0	1815
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	72.4	16.8	21.4	17.0	19.0	23	33	1	1723
Tyler Reddick	72.1	15.5	11.8	17.3	16.3	5	11	0	1411
Christopher Bell	69.1	17.5	25.0	18.5	20.0	-35	17	0	1415
Bubba Wallace	63.1	21.4	17.6	19.0	18.8	-14	10	0	1813
Daniel Suarez	63.0	21.2	19.6	19.0	20.6	-3	10	1	1813
Ryan Preece	58.5	25.2	23.0	22.6	21.6	-7	5	0	1812
Chase Briscoe	53.5	20.0	29.0	24.0	26.0	-11	1	0	735
Michael McDowell	52.7	23.6	21.2	23.4	24.0	2	4	0	1803
Ty Dillon	52.1	21.0	22.3	24.3	24.0	-63	10	1	1407
Corey LaJoie	48.3	27.0	27.0	24.8	26.2	-16	2	0	1795
B.J. McLeod	34.7	35.2	33.0	33.8	33.2	-25	0	0	1352

Betting Targets

Similar to my strategy for Saturday’s A-Game 200, I will feature another betting card that is focused on sharp H2H value for Sunday’s Wurth 400. For clear transparency, I don’t have a high level of confidence on futures (win) bets this weekend. Winners have been difficult to pick with the Next Gen Car and I honestly believe this racing package has horrifically produced “track position and strategy” racing for the most part. There will be better opportunities to chase futures bets this season however I will be very conservative this week for that specific type of wager.

*If you really want my thoughts on futures, Kyle Larson has been undeniably great at Dover and deserves his status as the overall favorite. However, guys like William Byron, Martin Truex Jr, and Joey Logano are the guys that have piqued my interest from an odds standpoint combined with other handicapping indicators.

For sharp H2H options, Josh Berry is going to be one of my favorite targets on Sunday. Berry has had ample opportunities in the Cup Series this season filling in for Chase Elliott and now Alex Bowman. While Berry has not done much to warrant betting consideration until this point, Dover is one of his best tracks and he showed some solid speed off the hauler on Saturday. Given Berry’s current mid-pack betting odds, I think he is going to give some serious value in H2H match-ups. Martin Truex Jr and Joey Logano are a couple of names that hold H2H value as well. Logano has never won at Dover but he has consistently run towards the front.

At 25-1 odds, I would take Logano over the majority of drivers in that betting range. Lastly, I will also throw out a wild card name into the mix for bottom-tier match-ups. Corey LaJoie had his best finish (18th) of his career at Dover last year in the Next Gen Car and had some solid speed in practice on Saturday. LaJoie is a bottom of the barrel option that should perform better than those drivers around him to provide some unexpected betting value. Also, don’t overlook Ricky Stenhouse Jr as another low-tier option following a surprise runner-up finish in this race last year.