2023 WaWa 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday August 25th, 2023. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: USA
On Friday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage on the high banks of Daytona International Speedway for the running of the WaWa 250. Unlike the Cup Series which will conclude their regular season on Saturday with the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400, the Xfinity Series still has 2 races remaining in their regular season with future races at Darlington and Kansas. However, Friday’s WaWa 250 will likely provide the best opportunity for a driver to score an upset win and earn their spot in the playoffs. Therefore, we should expect a lot of excitement throughout both races this weekend as playoff drama unfolds.
From a betting perspective, the superspeedway venues have not been extremely kind this season especially in the Xfinity Series. The superspeedways have largely been non-profitable for the sole basis that Austin Hill has dominated the superspeedway races over the last few years. After capturing his first two career Xfinity Series wins last season at Daytona and Atlanta, Hill repeated as a superspeedway venue at both Daytona and Atlanta races this season as the heavy betting favorite. Hill has cashed as a monumental superspeedway favorite on several occasions which has not helped bettors in the form of futures (win) bets. Hill enter’s Saturday’s WaWa 250 as the outright betting favorite yet again despite the fact that both Justin Haley and Ty Gibbs will step down from their Cup Series rides to make a run at a checkered flag.
Obviously, the superspeedway races are difficult to predict even with the aspect of heavy favorites cashing at an alarming rate. My typical strategy has always been to chase the betting value in these events. While we do experience some dry spells, I am convinced that is the better long-term betting approach for superspeedway races. Therefore, we are going to keep betting value at the top of our handicapping formula this week. Before we can get to the drivers that provide betting value, let’s first look at how Xfinity Series drivers have performed this season at the superspeedway races. Perhaps the data and performance metrics below will shed insight towards drivers that have more value/upside than current betting odds suggest.
Xfinity Series Loop Data – Superspeedways
There will not be any practices this weekend for either race at Daytona between the Xfinity and Cup Series. While practice speeds rarely provide any meaning at the superspeedways, I always mention practice results and observations each week because others value the input. For this week, we are strictly looking at loop data from the prior 4 races this season at superspeedways which include Daytona, Atlanta (2), and Talladega. While these performance results are not guaranteed to be replicated at a highly volatile place like Daytona, these in-season performance metrics often do shed light on the drivers that have consistently run towards the front which means that probability starts outweighing the luck factor.
In the data below, Austin Hill has unsurprisingly been the best of the field with a 117.2 driver rating. The only other driver with a triple digit rating is Justin Haley who has competed in 3 of the prior superspeedway events this season. While Haley is considered one of the best superspeedway talents in the sport, he has not been to victory lane at the superspeedways in his last 6 series starts dating back to 2021. As we move on down our loop data statistics, you will notice names like Parker Kligerman, Riley Herbst, Brett Moffitt, and Jeb Burton among those names that appear to have greatly exceeded typical expectations at the superspeedways this season. Burton yielded the biggest upset win of the season back at Talladega in April. Burton has produced two surprise victories by virtue of Talladega Superspeedway and remains among the most underrated superspeedway talents in the entire series.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Austin Hill | 117.2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 158 | 21 | 157 | 578 |
| Justin Haley | 103.2 | 16.7 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 43 | 11 | 86 | 457 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 93.5 | 3.5 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 11.0 | -5 | 13 | 21 | 538 |
| Parker Kligerman | 92.7 | 17.5 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 578 |
| Cole Custer | 92.1 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 578 |
| Riley Herbst | 89.6 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 17.5 | 13.0 | -8 | 18 | 14 | 486 |
| Daniel Hemric | 89.3 | 9.3 | 14.5 | 15.3 | 14.5 | 40 | 9 | 15 | 462 |
| Brett Moffitt | 88.4 | 20.3 | 10.3 | 14.5 | 11.5 | -8 | 11 | 20 | 577 |
| Chandler Smith | 88.2 | 6.5 | 14.8 | 21.3 | 11.5 | 28 | 17 | 6 | 530 |
| Justin Allgaier | 86.3 | 11.3 | 18.5 | 19.3 | 12.8 | 60 | 11 | 43 | 471 |
| Jeb Burton | 84.5 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 10.3 | 15.0 | 73 | 16 | 17 | 578 |
| Sheldon Creed | 82.0 | 5.5 | 15.8 | 23.0 | 17.0 | 40 | 6 | 40 | 413 |
| Josh Berry | 81.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 20.5 | 12.5 | 92 | 12 | 51 | 556 |
| Sam Mayer | 80.9 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 50 | 7 | 14 | 556 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 77.1 | 14.3 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 17.3 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 569 |
| Brandon Jones | 77.0 | 17.0 | 8.8 | 20.0 | 15.8 | -37 | 13 | 10 | 500 |
| Jeremy Clements | 75.3 | 26.5 | 20.3 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 577 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 75.1 | 12.3 | 23.3 | 27.3 | 19.5 | 15 | 14 | 23 | 415 |
| Ryan Sieg | 74.0 | 22.5 | 12.8 | 19.5 | 15.5 | 60 | 7 | 33 | 485 |
| Sammy Smith | 69.7 | 7.8 | 21.0 | 19.8 | 18.3 | -59 | 12 | 0 | 520 |
| Joe Graf Jr | 65.4 | 27.3 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 20.8 | -50 | 11 | 4 | 568 |
| Brennan Poole | 61.0 | 24.0 | 21.5 | 19.8 | 24.0 | -36 | 8 | 2 | 530 |
| Josh Williams | 60.8 | 21.5 | 23.0 | 16.5 | 23.8 | -12 | 12 | 0 | 448 |
| Gray Gaulding | 59.3 | 28.0 | 19.3 | 16.0 | 22.3 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 409 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 49.3 | 23.3 | 24.5 | 29.0 | 25.0 | -51 | 1 | 0 | 385 |
| Kaz Grala | 48.4 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 26.3 | 26.3 | -80 | 2 | 0 | 372 |
| Kyle Sieg | 47.6 | 28.3 | 28.0 | 17.3 | 26.5 | -96 | 7 | 0 | 576 |
| Ryan Ellis | 43.7 | 31.3 | 30.3 | 23.5 | 27.8 | -31 | 1 | 0 | 492 |
| Joey Gase | 43.1 | 34.0 | 28.3 | 21.3 | 29.7 | -24 | 1 | 0 | 247 |
| Garrett Smithley | 41.3 | 33.3 | 30.0 | 26.0 | 30.7 | -60 | 1 | 0 | 299 |
| Blaine Perkins | 41.1 | 29.8 | 30.0 | 31.3 | 29.8 | -51 | 1 | 0 | 325 |
Betting Targets
I often say that there are not any “wrong” betting targets at the superspeedways. However, I do believe all betting targets should produce enough value to justify the volatility of superspeedway racing. With that being said, I definitely consider Justin Haley the best “value” play among the betting favorites. Haley is currently at 10-1 odds which mirrors the likes of Ty Gibbs, Justin Allgaier, and others. Simply put, I believe Haley is clearly the best superspeedway betting option for drivers in that range. Further on back, Brandon Jones, Riley Herbst, Parker Kligerman, and Ryan Sieg are the best betting options from the intermediate to long-shot betting ranges. Kligerman and Herbst are two drivers that popped in our loop data metrics above. Both drivers are in the midst of the playoff battle and need a victory to eliminate any concerns.
If you look solely at past results at Daytona, Sheldon Creed and Justin Allgaier are also names that have consistently performed really well at Daytona. Creed is almost overdue for a win after letting one get away last week at Watkins Glen and Allgaier seems to always dominate these superspeedways without getting the wins to show for it. Therefore, both drivers can be considered potential pivots and fantasy racing options this week. Additional fantasy options on a low-tier scale include Ryan Sieg and Anthony Alfredo. Both names are considered bottom-tier talents or perhaps should be better referred to as driving bottom-tier “equipment.” However, both drivers have consistently outperformed their equipment at prior superspeedway venues!
2023 WaWa 250 Optimal Lineup
***TBD after qualifying***
2023 WaWa 250 Race Picks
*Final*
Justin Haley +1000 (.75 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1000 (.75 unit)
Cole Custer +1400 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +2500 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +3300 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Riley Herbst +700 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Brett Moffitt +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
