2023 Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday March 3rd, 2023. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s newly branded Craftsman Truck Series will take center stage this Friday night as we kick off the racing weekend with the running of the Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Unlike the Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams which competed last week at Auto Club Speedway, Friday’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will be the first Truck Series’ competition at an intermediate 1.5 mile oval since Kansas last September. Perhaps more importantly the Truck Series will have a different look this year with several driver and team changes, most notably stemming from Kyle Busch Motorsports major transition to Chevrolet. Along with the change in scenery, Kyle Busch will actually suit up for all 3 races this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and will be the heavy favorite for Friday’s Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200!

I believe all my readers are fully aware of Kyle Busch’s dominance in the lower series throughout his career. Busch owns 164 wins between the Xfinity Series (102) and Truck Series (62). Specifically in Truck Series competition, Rowdy has posted his highest winning percentage (37.5%) with 62 victories in 165 career starts. Needless to say, Busch is a deserving favorite any time he joins the Truck Series’ action and that is why he is an overwhelming favorite again this Friday. However, the elephant in the room is the fact that all of Kyle Busch Motorsports will be transitioning to Chevrolet this season and we have to wonder if we will see the same dominance witnessed with Toyota under the hood in recent years? While most would expect the same type of performance from the top team in the Truck Series, I have to question if the team will be at that elite level right out of the gates?

From a competition standpoint, the Truck Series’ may be somewhat down in terms of overall talent this season. However, both John Hunter Nemechek and Ross Chastain are noteworthy talents that will also be competing this Friday. Chastain will be behind the #41 truck with Niece Motorsports and Nemechek will be piloting the #17 for TRICON Garage, formerly known as Team DGR with David Gilliland Racing. As a result, we would expect these guys to be the main threats for the win this Friday from the part-time drivers pool. Among the full-time Truck Series drivers, Zane Smith and Ty Majeski will likely be the duo to watch throughout the season. Smith is the defending series champion and is one of the more talented young drivers in the entire sport. With those thoughts in mind, this Friday’s race will still be a learning experience in terms of gauging performance and we will have to approach cautiously from a betting perspective.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway – Truck Series Notes

• Kyle Busch (3), John Hunter Nemechek, Ben Rhodes, Grant Enfinger, and Christian Eckes are all former CTS winners at Las Vegas
• Toyota has produced 9 of the last 10 winners at Las Vegas including the last 7 straight winners
• There have been a minimum of 9 cautions in each of the last 3 CTS races at Las Vegas
• Kyle Busch has finished 1st (3) or 2nd (2) in each of his last 5 starts at Las Vegas
• Stewart Friesen has finished 6th or better in each of his last 4 starts at Las Vegas
• Despite running well in most races, John Hunter Nemechek has finished 20th or worse in 5 of his last 6 starts at Las Vegas. The only exception was his win in 2021
• Zane Smith’s best career finish at Las Vegas in 6th in 5 career starts
• Matt DiBenedetto finished 6th in his only CTS start at Las Vegas last year and returns with the same team in 2023

Handicapping Strategy

The strategy for Friday’s Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 will be extremely conservative. Due to all the changes within the Craftsman Truck Series, I truly believe we need to validate performance trends before we get confident in our betting selections. In many ways, this is the first real race of the season for the Truck Series and should be a learning experience for everyone. With that being said, I do believe the value leans towards fading Busch this week especially with the new organization question marks lingering overhead. Perhaps Friday evening’s brief practice will validate some betting angles but there will be minimal time between practice/qualifying and the green flag in order to get any late bets submitted. Either way, I think we have to play this race conservative in terms of overall risk.

Betting Targets

If you look back to last year’s performance trends on the 1.5 mile tracks, TRICON Garace (formerly Team DGR) was really strong on the intermediate tracks with Ryan Preece behind the wheel. I believe that fact bodes well for a driver like John Hunter Nemechek who has a lot of Truck Series experience, thrives on the 1.5 mile surfaces, and is also carrying some momentum following his Xfinity win last week at Fontana. In a race where Rowdy’s equipment could be somewhat questionable combined with the fact that Ross Chastain (Niece Motorsports) and Zane Smith (Front Row Motorsports) did not perform well on the 1.5 mile tracks in 2022, I believe we could make a solid argument for backing Nemechek for the outright victory as a pivot against Busch for better value.

In my opinion, Ty Majeski is probably the best choice for a potential underdog style winner this Friday. Both Majeski and Christian Eckes were really impressive on the traditional ovals in the Truck Series last year. Majeski was among the hottest drivers in the sport at the end of 2022 and should have the opportunity to build off last year’s success. Meanwhile, Eckes moves over to the #19 team formerly piloted by Derek Kraus and I’m just not sure how to gauge that move from an expectations perspective. In terms of H2H targets, Majeski is one of my favorite true betting targets this Friday for a race where I have very few confident targets. I would give notable mentions to Stewart Friesen and Hailie Deegan as drivers that should outperform their current betting odds. However, I would reiterate my stance that this will be a very conservative betting event as we learn more about the state of the Truck Series.

Draftkings Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +800 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +1200 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2000 (.5 unit)
Matt Crafton +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

John Hunter Nemechek -110 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Stewart Friesen -110 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)
Matt Crafton -115 over Carson Hocevar (2 units)