2023 UNOH 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Thursday September 14th, 2023. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR racing returns early this week with all active touring series competing at Bristol Motor Speedway for 3 spectacular nights of racing. The Craftsman Truck Series will have the honor of taking the primetime stage late Thursday, shortly after the ARCA Menards Bristol 200, with the running of the UNOH 200. Last week, the Craftsman Truck Series playoff battle was cut to 8 drivers with the elimination of popular names like 3-time series champion Matt Crafton and Matt DiBenedetto both receiving early exits. On Thursday, the UNOH 200 will be the first race in the Round of 8 as the Truck Series playoffs has just 3 races before deciding the championship 4 that will battle at Phoenix.

While I am excited to watch 3 straight nights of racing at Bristol, I believe bettors should approach Thursday’s UNOH 200 with a conservative attitude. Despite making solid picks last week, we got killed with bad luck at Kansas Speedway and Bristol is one of those tracks where performance does not always align with results. The reason is because the smallest mistakes can cause a driver/team to go multiple laps down. Additionally, track position is extremely important at Bristol because passing is difficult. A late race penalty, bad pit stop, or any other slight error can literally ruin a driver’s night and produce a bad result. Therefore, I don’t want anyone to get overly aggressive this week in attempt to bounce back from the bad luck last week.

Another reason that I believe bettors should be cautious is the simple fact that the Truck Series does not compete at any venues like Bristol Motor Speedway. In fact, the Truck Series rarely competes at short tracks in general, especially a high-banked half-mile. As a result, we don’t have any direct correlation from in-season performances to help guide expectations this week. Instead, we must make educated guesses on the type of driving style that is required to exceed at Bristol and hope teams/drivers bring capable trucks that yield the opportunity to make quality performances. To make matters more frustrating from a bettors perspective, teams and drivers will have the opportunity to practice and qualify late Thursday afternoon however betting lines may not be reposted before the green flag. Therefore, most of our bets will have to be solidified before on-track activities begin.

Handicapping Bristol

Unlike the Xfinity Series and Cup Series, most of the drivers competing in Thursday’s UNOH 200 have very limited experience at Bristol Motor Speedway. In fact, Ty Majeski is the only former winner in the entire field competing on Thursday. Majeski won last year’s UNOH 200 and will enter Thursday as a deserving favorite especially after picking up a win at Lucas Oil IRP which was the most recent short track on the Truck Series schedule. Outside of Majeski and a few series veterans, most drivers have minimal experience at Bristol which is another reason this race can be very difficult to handicap.

Despite the experience concerns, I have always handicapped the Truck Series events at Bristol by looking for the drivers with the best car (truck) control. After about 20 laps at Bristol, Trucks get very slick with minimal rear grip. We can look at some other races this year like North Wilkesboro, IRP, and others to get an idea of how drivers performed at those venues. While the track layouts are not necessarily similar, the car (truck) control needed to produce speed with minimal grip is similar. Therefore, these driving characteristics are often correlative and beneficial for handicapping a place like Bristol which the Truck Series only visits once a year.

Betting Targets

When we look at the driving characteristics that we desire and compare performance at the tracks that I mentioned above, Ty Majeski has clearly established himself as a favorite in the Truck Series at the short tracks and/or tracks with minimal grip. Unfortunately, this is no secret to odds makers which have Majeski listed as a disgusting 3-1 heavy favorite. Behind Majeski, I would give Corey Heim and Carson Hocevar nods of the cap as well for consistently being strong under similar racing conditions. Heim seems to produce a ton of speed early in the run but does not always have the long-run speed. I’m wondering if the high-banking of Bristol will be better for his style. Either way, I believe those drivers are clearly the best 3 in the series for a place like Bristol with Majeski having a solid gap over the group.

Behind those names, Zane Smith is a guy that always climbs his way towards the front of the field and is definitely capable of winning based on talent alone. However, Smith is not a guy that is going to produce any type of betting value this week unless you want to use him as a pivot opposed to the favorites above. In terms of H2H betting targets, I have William Sawalich high on my list this week. Sawalich will return to the #1 truck for TRICON Garage this week to make his 6th start of the season. Sawalich has posted 3 top 10 finishes this season which have all come on the short tracks at Martinsville, Richmond, and IRP. Based on current betting odds, Sawalich has a strong likelihood to beat most of the competitors in his range of betting odds. Another H2H option that is deeper down the pecking order that I believe holds sharp value includes Jake Garcia who has produced quality finishes throughout the 2nd half of the season especially at the shorter layouts.

2023 Draftkings UNOH 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 UNOH 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Corey Heim +600 (1 unit)
Parker Kligerman +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ty Majeski -135 over Zane Smith (3 units)
Matt Crafton -115 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)