2023 United Rentals 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 12th, 2023. 3:45PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FOX

The Cup Series will conclude the infamous west coast swing on Sunday with the running of the United Rentals 500 at Phoenix Raceway. In recent weeks, Kyle Busch and William Byron have each scored wins out west by virtue of prior stops at Fontana and Las Vegas. This week, Cup Series’ drivers and teams return to NASCAR’s championship venue at Phoenix for an important debut of the 2023 short-track rules package which features a combination of changes to reduce overall downforce, which is expected to make the Next Gen Car more difficult to drive at the smaller venues. As a result, many are hoping and expecting better racing at the shorter layouts starting with Sunday’s United Rentals 500.

Last year, the Next Gen Car failed to deliver a better racing product at the shorter tracks. The abundance of downforce made the cars relatively easy to drive and perhaps more importantly made the racing a glorified game of track position. These circumstances also produced minimal tire wear which eliminated your typical short run vs. long run style characteristics shared between setups and driving styles. The rules package changes for the 2023 season aim to reduce overall downforce by 30%. In Friday’s practice, many of the drivers acknowledged the changes and reported the cars are much looser on corner exit. In my opinion, this should be a good thing and will likely put some relevance back towards historical trends at the shorter venues where the drivers will be more in control of their success.

In qualifying earlier this afternoon, Kyle Larson won the Busch pole with a fast lap of 130.237mph. Larson edged out two-time winner Denny Hamlin for the top spot in qualifying. As some may recall, Larson won the pole and the race at Phoenix in the fall of 2021 to capture his first championship. Larson has been fast throughout the entire weekend in practice and qualifying despite some controversy around the Hendrick Motorsports cars. All 4 of the Hendrick Motorsports cars had their hood louvers taken by NASCAR officials following Friday’s practice. The hood louvers are designed to have air flow to the engine as a cooling mechanism and there is some debate brewing about potential modifications to those parts from the Hendrick Motorsports brigade. Whether right, wrong, or indifferent, Larson was able to back up the speed in practice and proved that he is still the driver to beat heading into Sunday!

Phoenix Raceway – Cup Series Notes

• Kevin Harvick is the all-time wins (9) leader at Phoenix Raceway with his last victory coming in 2018. Harvick has also posted a record 19 straight top 10 finishes at Phoenix.
• Kyle Busch and Joey Logano are tied for 2nd among active drivers with 3 wins each at Phoenix. Denny Hamlin (2), Martin Truex Jr (1), Chase Briscoe (1), and Kyle Larson (1) are also former winners.
• Behind Kevin Harvick (5.4), Kyle Busch has been equally impressive over the last 10 races at Phoenix with a 6.6 average finishing position.
• Ryan Blaney has finished 4th or better in each of the last 3 starts at Phoenix
• Chase Briscoe won the spring race last year and finished 4th in the only two races at Phoenix in the Next Gen Car.
• Ross Chastain finished 2nd and 3rd in both Phoenix races last year.
• Statistically, Phoenix is one of Alex Bowman’s worst tracks with a 23.8 average finishing position and 0 top 10 results in the last 10 races.
• Austin Dillon has just two top 10 results in 18 career starts at Phoenix with a career-best 8th place result in 2018.

Dynamic Averages

I don’t consider our short track dynamic averages an important handicapping metric for this week’s race at Phoenix. However, I do believe it is worth mentioning despite the rules changes. Christopher Bell caught fire at the end of 2022 at the shorter layouts and could be a driver to watch going into the weekend despite mediocre results in his 6 career starts at Phoenix. Meanwhile, reputable names like Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Denny Hamlin all posted triple digit averages at the short tracks during the 2022 season with the Next Gen Car.

Practice Observations

In Friday afternoon’s practice, Kyle Larson made the competition look inferior. Larson posted the fastest single lap with a speed of 131.258mph. However, it was not the single lap speed where Larson was impressive. The driver of the #5 Hendrickcars.com had the fastest consecutive lap averages in every category which consisted of the fastest 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages. To put things into perspective, Larson was .25 better than 2nd place Ryan Blaney on the 15 lap average charts which is a monumental difference at a mere 1 mile venue.

Behind Larson, the top guys in the driver averages categories included the likes of Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Kevin Harvick. Ironically, that is very in-line with the same individuals that popped at the top of our dynamic averages discussed above. Other guys that were pretty decent in terms of practice included Christopher Bell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. It’s worth noting that Christopher Bell is the only Toyota driver that I have mentioned thus far in practice. Several of the Toyota drivers were reportedly bad off the truck on Friday but were better towards the longer run. In qualifying on Saturday, it appears the Toyotas were a bit better so perhaps they will be back in the hunt by Sunday.

Betting Targets

For the outright win, I think Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin produce the best value among the favorites. Though I like Kyle Larson, there is no way anyone can get behind the +300 betting odds he is currently receiving. Instead, I think there is better value behind Larson specifically with the Joe Gibbs Racing tandem of Hamlin and Bell. Ross Chastain and Kevin Harvick are also dark horse considerations but both drivers are overvalued from an odds perspective. As a result, I am keeping things extremely light for bets towards the outright win for the United Rentals 500.

In terms of H2H bets, I have been saying since before the Xfinity Series race that I believe we will get our best opportunities of the weekend via betting match-ups. I am likely going to be looking for fade opportunities against Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon who are just outright bad at Phoenix. I will have sharper fades geared towards fading the Team Penske drivers who appear to be struggling on the long run for the 2nd straight week. The only flipside to that narrative is that Austin Cindric is sneaky good at Phoenix so I will not be fading Cindric. Meanwhile, I am targeting guys like Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Chase Briscoe, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr as the guys with the most upside based on their current expectations. Bell and Chastain both have the checkered flag ceilings while the Briscoe/Stenhouse duo holds H2H value only.

Draftkings United Rentals 500 Optimal Lineup

2023 United Rentals 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +800 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1000 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1400 (.75 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -115 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Ty Gibbs -145 over Josh Berry (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -110 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Austin Cindric -125 over Ryan Preece (2 units)
Austin Cindric +300 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +850 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)