2023 United Rentals 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 11th, 2023. 4:49PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

NASCAR will return to its championship venue this weekend for racing at Phoenix Raceway. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will kick off the racing weekend with the running of the United Rentals 200. While this weekend’s festivities will not have any championship impacts, rest assured this will be an important weekend for those drivers with championship aspirations in both the Xfinity and Cup Series. Last week, rookie Chandler Smith captured an impressive victory at Las Vegas to prove he will be among the many drivers that will be competing for the championship this season. In reality, the Xfinity Series is stacked in the talent department among full-time drivers so this weekend’s race at Phoenix will be very intriguing from many aspects.

Of course, the full-time drivers will not be alone this week. Most notably, Kyle Busch will return this week behind the no. 10 machine at Kaulig Racing. Busch is the all-time leading winner in the Xfinity Series at Phoenix with 11 wins in 24 career starts. While 11 wins at any single venue is unprecedented, I would expound on the fact that Busch has just been phenomenal at Phoenix. Through 24 starts, he owns a lucrative 5.4 average finishing position and has finished inside the top 4 positions in each of his last 11 starts. Needless to say, Busch will be the deserving and overwhelming favorite throughout the weekend in the lead-up to Saturday’s green flag.

The most notable part-time entry, aside from Busch, will be Ryan Truex who will be piloting the no. 19 for Joe Gibbs Racing. The younger brother of Martin Truex Jr has been a journeyman throughout his NASCAR career but has produced some solid finishes in recent starts with JGR which includes top 7 results in 3 of his last 4 opportunities. Given the level of talent in Saturday’s field, Truex will have his work cut out for him to produce similar results. Saturday’s entry list includes former winners like Justin Allgaier, Daniel Hemric, and Brandon Jones. Not to mention, the 2023 Xfinity Season has been dominated by the young emerging drivers like Austin Hill, John Hunter Nemechek, and Chandler Smith. Therefore, everyone deserves a certain level of respect going into Saturday’s relatively short 200 lap event.

Betting Strategy

It is not often that I make this statement but the Cup Series could produce the best betting opportunities of the two races this weekend. For Saturday’s United Rentals 200, I think we have to play things very conservative. Both the Xfinity and Truck Series have a lot of new drivers, teams, and changes this season which is making things somewhat difficult to predict. Not to mention, Saturday’s United Rentals 200 will be the first event of the season at a relatively smaller layout. My plan for the weekend is to lock-in early match-ups where I believe there is clear value and remain relatively conservative throughout my overall lineup. Additionally, it is worth noting that practice and qualifying for the United Rentals 200 will not take place until early Saturday. Therefore, I will have to update our preview to account for on-track observations and then determine if that changes any of my expectations for the weekend. Therefore, be sure to check back closer to race time for updates following Saturday’s sessions.

Betting Targets

Without question, Busch deserves to be a heavy favorite this Saturday but we have to raise the same question as we did last week at Vegas. Does it make better sense to fade Busch in hopes of better value? Last week would have been a great opportunity if you were smart enough to back Chandler Smith however I don’t think anyone saw that result coming. It’s only a matter of time before Busch gets another win in the Xfinity Series and Phoenix seems like a highly-probable venue for that to happen. However if I was to choose a driver to supplant Busch this weekend, Justin Allgaier is my guy.

Allgaier has routinely excelled at shorter flat layouts like Phoenix. Just look at Allgaier’s success at Richmond for comparison. Even at Phoenix, Allgaier is a two-time winner and was a part of that incredible 3-way battle throughout the entire championship finale last fall which included Ty Gibbs and Noah Gragson. I was really impressed with Allgaier’s performance in that championship finale despite not having one of the better cars and I think that performance will increase his likelihood of getting back to victory lane at Phoenix. Needless to say, Allgaier is a top betting option in all formats.

Behind Allgaier, I am not going to be too aggressive betting on favorites this week as I just don’t see enough value. John Hunter Nemechek would likely be another likely candidate among the upper echelon of drivers. Nemechek has never finished worse than 9th in 5 career starts at Phoenix which includes a pair of top 5 finishes with the likes of GMS Racing and Sam Hunt Racing. In top tier equipment, Nemechek should be considered a legitimate threat. For H2H targets specifically, I really like the upside potential from guys like Sheldon Creed, Daniel Hemric, and Brett Moffitt based on current betting odds. Creed has been really good at Phoenix throughout his career and has shown plenty of speed barring the neverending misfortune. Hemric is a former Phoenix winner that is way better than current 50-1 odds suggests. Meanwhile, Moffitt appears to be in decent equipment this season and is far better than most would expect at Phoenix. Therefore, consider this trio your best drivers to target based on current odds going into Saturday.

Practice Observations

Practice and qualifying just concluded at Phoenix Raceway for today’s United Rentals 200. At the end of both sessions, Cole Custer stood out as the fastest driver in terms of single lap speed. Custer earned the pole with a fast lap of 129.959mph after also setting the fastest time in practice. It appears that Custer has the speed that we expected to see at Fontana and Las Vegas but perhaps the Fords were a bit down on speed at those bigger horsepower tracks which was a trend that we saw essentially through all touring series. However, it appears that will not be an issue this weekend and Custer is among the most notable emerging threats for Saturday afternoon.

In practice, several of the guys that we spoke about above were also within contention. Justin Allgaier, Kyle Busch, and John Hunter Nemechek all looked really solid on speed. Busch actually had a fuel pump issue which ruined the end of his practice and qualifying efforts. As a result, Busch will be coming from the rear which means he is likely a DFS lock. Other than those notable competitors, I thought Ryan Truex looked extremely fast on the speed charts. I had reserved expectations for Truex in his first start of the season but he looked really good on the stopwatch. Other guys that appeared to be trending in the right direction included Daniel Hemric and Sammy Smith.

Draftkings United Rentals 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 United Rentals 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +285 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +525 (1.5 units)
Daniel Hemric +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Cole Custer -150 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -110 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Daniel Hemric +1200 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)