2023 Tyson 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 20th, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: North Wilkesboro Speedway
TV: FS1

This weekend NASCAR will make an exciting return to North Wilkesboro Speedway with the 39th running of the All-Star Race. For fans, this weekend’s return to North Wilkesboro has to be exciting. It is the perfect recipe for an All-Star Race at an old-school short track with an extremely aged racing surface. While I believe the racing should be great, this is not an event that bettors should target given so many unknowns. However, bettors will have the luxury of targeting some better opportunities on Saturday when the Craftsman Truck Series waves the green flag for the Tyson 250 featuring an extremely talented field including several Cup Series drivers. Unlike Sunday’s All-Star Race, Truck Series drivers will be racing for traditional points which means this will be the first NASCAR points race at North Wilkesboro in 27 years.

Despite my excitement for this weekend’s races and my confidence in producing some quality picks this weekend, I believe bettors should remain relatively cautious. There are a lot of unknowns going into this weekend’s races. None of the drivers have ever competed at North Wilkesboro (at least until this week) and there are not really any other tracks that closely compare to North Wilkesboro for handicapping comparisons. I would describe North Wilkesboro as a mix between Darlington and Richmond. The surface has a Darlington feel which is essentially minimal grip but has a flatter short-track feel similar to Richmond. For Saturday’s Tyson 250, there are 250 scheduled laps which leaves plenty of time for “comers and goers” due to the significant tire wear that we will witness. As a result, I think there are a lot of unknowns going into this unique track from a handicapping perspective.

The one thing that I feel confident about heading into both races this weekend is that the most talented drivers are going to be racing at the front of the field similar to what we traditionally see at Darlington. As stated before, this track is extremely difficult to drive and favors those drivers that are smooth because it is so easy to burn the rear tires on corner exit. However, even that narrative is relatively complicated because we have so many talented drivers from the Cup Series that will be stepping into different tiers of equipment. William Byron will be piloting the #51 for Kyle Busch Motorsports which is probably the best ride in the sport. Bubba Wallace (#1) and Kyle Larson (#7) will be in relatively solid equipment that should be capable of winning. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain (#41) and Christopher Bell (#61) may be on the inferior side of the equipment evaluations. Needless to say, we have a lot of things to consider going into Saturday’s event!

Practice Observations

For transparency, qualifying for the Tyson 250 will not take place until early tomorrow (Saturday) morning. I don’t believe that starting positions will be overly important based on the importance of long-run speed but we will need to see qualifying results for our fantasy picks. In Friday’s lone practice, Carson Hocevar posted the fastest lap of the afternoon with a speed of 109.282mph. Hocevar is slowly starting to show some breakout potential. Following the win at Texas, Hocevar has been fast everywhere and definitely has the wheelman capabilities to run well this weekend. Behind Hocevar, Ty Majeski, Chase Purdy, Zane Smith, and Kaden Honeycutt rounded out your top 5 fastest times.

Personally, I would not give single lap speeds too much weight considering the grip level at North Wilkesboro. Simply put, race speed will be all that matters. In observing the raw lap times, I would say that Carson Hocevar was easily the best truck in practice. Both Zane Smith and Kyle Larson were strong on lap times, especially Larson on the longer run. Ross Chastain and Christopher Bell were solid for the most part. Meanwhile, I believe Corey Heim and Parker Kligerman were among the drivers that seemed to be faster than many may have expected. On the other end of the spectrum, I would probably classify Bubba Wallace, Christian Eckes, and Grant Enfinger as the group of trucks that appeared to be struggling to find speed on Friday.

Betting Targets

As stated earlier, there are a lot of unknown and different angles that must be considered for Saturday’s Tyson 250. Therefore, I don’t think bettors should go overboard for this race from an overall risk perspective. With that being said, I think the best play on the board as of now (Friday night) is Carson Hocevar at 8-1 odds. I mentioned earlier that Hocevar was fastest in practice but I didn’t really explain how fast. Hocevar was nearly two tenths better than everyone in all of the lap average categories. Simply put, Hocevar was extremely impressive and showed some speed that many others will likely struggle to find. Therefore, I think Hocevar is a sharp target in all formats.

Among the outright favorites, both William Byron and Kyle Larson are receiving minimal betting value. I thought Larson was really good on the long-run despite the fact he did not run as many laps as the others in practice. However, this track is suited for Larson’s driving style and I don’t think that will be hidden by the type of car (truck) that he is piloting on Saturday. Unfortunately, I don’t think there is a ton of value betting the favorites so most of my risks will be in the form of H2H match-ups. Odds makers have been pretty conservative with Truck Series match-ups in recent weeks but I am hoping for more variety on Friday. If that happens, Parker Kligerman and Corey Heim will be drivers that I will be looking to target as they should outrun their expectations based on current odds.

2023 Draftkings Tyson 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 Tyson 250 Race Picks

*Final*

William Byron +450 (1 unit)
Carson Hocevar +800 (1 unit)
Corey Heim +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Corey Heim -125 over Bubba Wallace (3 units)
Ross Chastain -115 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Colby Howard -140 over Hailie Deegan (2 units)