2023 TSport 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday August 11th, 2023. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Indianapolis Raceway Park
TV: FS1

While Xfinity and Cup Series teams are preparing for racing at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, the Craftsman Truck Series is slated for battle at Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park. Commonly known as IRP, Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park sits about 13 miles south of Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The .686 mile oval is an extremely flat bullring that produces excellent short track racing just as we witnessed last year when the Truck Series returned to IRP for the first time in over a decade. For Friday night’s return to IRP, let’s discuss what bettors and viewers should expect in the running of the TSport 200!

For starters, Indianapolis Raceway Park is the epitome of a short track. The track has limited grip from the flat banking but trucks can literally run from the bottom of the track to the wall which provides tons of side by side racing. Last year’s TSport 200 provided tons of beating and banging which resulted in 10 cautions and I would not be surprised to see a similar narrative this Friday especially as we inch closer to the end of the regular season. In that race one year ago, Grant Enfinger emerged with a victory over Ben Rhodes and Zane Smith. However, this year’s TSport 200 provides an extremely talented field that will make this race tough to predict.

To make matters more challenging, Truck Series’ teams and drivers will not get the opportunity to practice and qualify until late Friday afternoon just a few hours before the green flag. Therefore, this will give odds-makers minimal time to repost betting odds and allow bettors minimal time to review practice/qualifying observations. In fact, I would state that odds-makers have been pretty bad this season at reposting betting odds in tight windows between qualifying and start time. Therefore to be confident, I believe most betting lineups should be submitted well in advance to Friday’s on-track activities and hopefully we are given a chance to finalize our selections “if” odds are reposted before start time.

Short Track Performance Trends

If you look at the 2023 Craftsman Truck Series season from a holistic perspective, there have been very few “short-track” races this season. Corey Heim scored the first win of the season at a short-track back in April at Martinsville. However, I don’t consider Martinsville and IRP comparable from a handicapping perspective. The only other two events that hold some merit towards this weekend’s return to IRP include the races at North Wilkesboro and Richmond. I would actually classify the North Wilkesboro race as the closest comparison to IRP simply based on the surface composition of both venues. Back at North Wilkesboro, Kyle Larson obviously stole the show but I would not overlook impressive performances by both Ty Majeski and Carson Hocevar.

Hocevar actually performed very well in this race last year and also captured a victory in the last race at Richmond, which is another short track venue. As a result, Hocevar has to be given a ton of credit towards being one of the top threats this weekend. Corey Heim perhaps deserves a considerable amount of attention as well. As mentioned earlier, Heim won earlier this year at Martinsville and led a race-high 75 laps back at North Wilkesboro. Meanwhile, I would also throw out notable mentions from the likes of Matt Crafton, and Chase Purdy as some potential H2H targets that have performed better than most would have expected throughout the short-track races this season.

Betting Targets

Unfortunately, betting odds are pretty undesirable for tomorrow’s TSport 200. The field is very top heavy in the likes of Ty Majeski, Corey Heim, Zane Smith, and Carson Hocevar. I do believe that is the correct group of favorites. However, I personally would not list Majeski or Smith as the outright favorite, which is the case with some online books. Instead, I believe Heim and Hocevar have been the best short-track talents this season. I was really impressed with how Heim was able to slide the truck through the corners at North Wilkesboro and Hocevar’s performance last year in this event still resonates in my memory. As everyone is aware, Hocevar is performing way better than he was a year ago which makes me believe his ceiling is sky-high.

Even with those drivers in mind, we are looking to produce minimal value towards the betting favorites and I don’t have many dark horses that yield enough confidence to warrant action towards futures (win) bets. In the H2H match-up department, I believe Chase Purdy is one of the sharpest targets for this weekend. Purdy has been excellent on the short-tracks and is usually paired against bottom-tier talents. I am cautiously optimistic for guys like Stewart Friesen and Matt Crafton considering their short-track pedigrees. The only downside is that both Friesen and Crafton are relatively inconsistent at this point in their careers. Another sneaky bottom-tier option that I am watching for potential H2H reasons includes Tyler Ankrum who has shown all of the short-track and past performance indicators to warrant consideration.

2023 TSport 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Tsport 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Corey Heim +500 (1 unit)
Carson Hocevar +600 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

William Sawalich -115 over Layne Riggs (2 units)