2023 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 1st, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: FS1

For the 3rd week in a row, NASCAR’s Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series will partake in a double-header on Saturday. Instead of the Truck Series kicking off the racing action, the Xfinity Series will kick things off this weekend with the running of the ToyotaCare 250 at Richmond Raceway. For the first time this year, there are not any Cup Series drivers showing on the entry list which means this Saturday’s 250 lap race at Richmond will likely be settled strictly among the Xfinity Series full-time drivers who are competing for a championship. Thus far this season, Xfinity Series racing has been difficult to predict but this could be the event where bettors can turn things around!

For those unaware, Richmond Raceway is a .75-mile D-shaped oval that has relatively flat banking. Drivers that typically excel at Richmond are those talents that have a knack for getting around flat surfaces and must have a car that will rotate throughout the corners. Perhaps equally important is the fact that Richmond also produces a considerable amount of tire wear especially for a short-track. Therefore, drivers will also be tasked with the challenge of saving their equipment for longer green flag runs which seem to occur rather often. As a result, we will be looking for the drivers, more so than the equipment, that typically shine at this particular style of racing as the primary basis of our betting selections.

As we approach the ToyotaCare 250, I think it is important to highlight a few of the items on the docket for Saturday. Practice and qualifying will be held very early in the morning on Saturday from 8:00-9:30am (EST). Therefore, we will not get our first taste of on-track action until just a few hours before the green flag. At that time, I will update our practice observations below and deliver final thoughts before we finalize our betting rosters. For now, I want to go ahead and provide my expectations for how I think things could unfold and more importantly get a few early picks locked down that could lose value after Saturday’s early sessions.

Richmond Raceway – Xfinity Series Notes

• Justin Allgaier (2) and Cole Custer are the only former Xfinity Series winners at Richmond competing this weekend. Allgaier swept both of the 2020 races and has finished 4th or betting in 5 of his last 6 starts at Richmond.
• John Hunter Nemechek has finished 2nd and 3rd in his last two starts at Richmond with two separate race teams
• Daniel Hemric has finished 6th or better in 5 of his 6 career starts at Richmond
• Cole Custer has been hit or miss throughout his career at Richmond with finishes of 6th, 15th, 1st and 3rd in his last 4 starts.
• Brandon Jones has finished 8th or worse in 12 career starts at Richmond and has an average finishing position of 17.5.
• There have been 5 or less cautions in 4 of the last 5 races at Richmond

Betting Targets

I am going to keep things pretty brief and straightforward with this week’s Xfinity Series preview especially since we have the Truck Series race to prepare for as well. While Justin Allgaier may get a lot of early attention, I would hold off until after qualifying to potentially take Allgaier. The Xfinity Series veteran has never qualified well at Richmond but does a phenomenal job in race trim which means we may get some better value after Saturday’s sessions. As things currently stand, I would likely go ahead and consider either John Hunter Nemechek or Sammy Smith among the favorites. Obviously, Nemechek is my favorite option of the two despite being listed at mere 3.5 to 1 odds. Simply put, the Joe Gibbs Racing cars were incredible at Phoenix and I believe they have a driver/equipment advantage with the #20 team compared to the rest of the competition.

Current betting odds are not going to allow room for value unless we consider dark horses. Personally, I think this will likely be decided among the Nemechek, Allgaier, Berry, and Custer group of favorites. Therefore, I don’t see a ton of betting value in the realm of futures (win) bets. Instead, I am going to put our focus into the H2H match-ups and guys that will not get a ton of pre-race attention. The drivers that I have pegged that should greatly outperform current betting odds include the likes of Daniel Hemric, Derek Kraus, and Parker Retzlaff. I mentioned Hemric’s impressive Richmond resume in our handicapping notes section above and he clearly has a higher ceiling than his 40 to 1 odds suggest. Meanwhile, Retzlaff bagged a 10th place finish in his first career start at Richmond last season and has even better equipment this year. Lastly, Derek Kraus will be making his first start of the year but with the #10 team at Kaulig Racing which was driven by Kyle Busch in several races already this year. Kraus did not have much success in the Truck Series but Xfinity Series cars and short-track racing are much better suited to his driving style. For a guy that is currently listed way down the betting odds chart, I think Kraus can pull out some decent H2H value.

**Practice and qualifying was cancelled Saturday morning due to rain**

Draftkings ToyotaCare 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +300 (1.5 units)
Cole Custer +1000 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Riley Herbst -110 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Josh Berry -125 over Sam Mayer (2 units)