2023 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 11th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Sonoma Raceway
TV: FOX

The Cup Series returns to Wine Country on Sunday for the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Earlier this year, Tyler Reddick continued his hot streak at the road courses in the Next Gen Car. Following 2 wins on the road courses last season, Reddick won the first road course event of the season back in March at Circuit of the Americas. Now Reddick will have the opportunity to battle for another win after qualifying 2nd earlier this afternoon. Reddick will be the leading favorite going into Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 but he will be surrounded by a bunch of fast Toyotas.

Earlier today, Cup Series teams participated in practice and qualifying sessions in preparations for tomorrow’s 110 lap scheduled event. At the end of both sessions, Toyota teams emerged with the spotlight. Denny Hamlin earned the pole following a lap of 92.178 mph. Hamlin’s pole winning effort was the first of his career at Sonoma and just 2nd overall at a road course. Behind Hamlin, there was a big group of Toyotas which included the likes of Tyler Reddick (2nd), Christopher Bell (4th), Ty Gibbs (6th), and Martin Truex (8th). I think this is important because the Toyota teams quietly struggled at the road course venues throughout 2022. Therefore, the speed they have shown could bring some different competitors to the front of Sunday’s field.

From a handicapping perspective, we will need to take a look at a little bit of everything this week. Historical trends are worth reviewing for driver purposes. However, Sonoma Raceway is a relatively finesse road course venue with minimal heavy braking zones. As a result, this race is not going to simply favor the drivers that are the best road course talents. It is going to take a good setup with pure speed that will be needed as well. Therefore, we will also dive into practice and qualifying observations before finalizing our betting expectations. With that being said, I do believe the frontrunners for the win will be very close among several drivers. Perhaps there will be value to be found in a few dark horses but we will likely be focusing on H2H match-ups as our main value angles.

Sonoma – Fast Facts

• Martin Truex Jr leads all active drivers with 3 career wins at Sonoma which have all come in the last 9 races.
• Kyle Busch (2) is the only other driver with multiple wins at Sonoma. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Daniel Suarez (2022) are the other drivers with a Sonoma checkered flag.
• Road course talent Austin Cindric finished 5th in his first career start at Sonoma last season.
• Last year’s winner Daniel Suarez has the best average finishing position (12.2) among active drivers with multiple starts.
• Kevin Harvick has finished 6th or better in 6 of the last 7 races at Sonoma
• Despite the win in 2021, Kyle Larson has finished outside the top 10 in 7 of 8 career starts at Sonoma
• Bubba Wallace has a measly 26.4 average finishing position through 4 career starts at Sonoma.
• Ricky Stenhouse has an even worst average finishing position (27.0) through 9 career starts at Sonoma.
• There have been 4 cautions or less in 4 of the last 6 races. With no stage breaks on Sunday, expect another low number.

Dynamic Averages – Road Courses

Our dynamic averages will be an important handicapping tool this week. The historical notes listed above were the main result of the old car. Our dynamic averages look at the last 5 road course races in the Next Gen Car which perhaps paints a better picture of who has performed best in the new car. The one thing that I will note from these averages is that the majority of the races in the sample are from last season. Therefore if teams or organizations have made improvements to their road course packages, it may not show in this data.

For now, I believe this data serves as a strong representation of how “drivers” have performed thus far through various road course venues. As you see in the averages, Tyler Reddick clearly owns the top spots thanks to 3 wins in the sample. Reddick’s 124.6 average rating is simply phenomenal. Behind Reddick is Chase Elliott. As many are aware, Elliott owned the road course events prior to the Next Gen Car and despite not having any wins in the new car, Elliott has quietly put together a very strong 116.9 rating. After Elliott, you start seeing some relatively surprising names like Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger, Christopher Bell, and Daniel Suarez who have all seemed to benefit from the transition to the new car at the road course events. Meanwhile, guys like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Denny Hamlin are among the well-known names that have not performed well in the new car at the road course venues which should be considered going into Sunday’s green flag.

Practice Observations

Prior to qualifying, Kyle Larson had a lot of momentum at Sonoma. Larson looked unbeatable in the Xfinity Series car and then posted the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 91.730mph. Larson slipped a little bit in qualifying but still appeared to have “winning” speed. In fact, Larson had the fastest 5 and 10 lap averages which is most comparable to “race speed.” As mentioned earlier, there were a lot of fast Toyotas at the front of the field with Larson in practice. All of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars were really good. Martin Truex Jr appeared to be the best of the bunch but both Ty Gibbs and Christopher Bell flexed speed worthy of dark horse considerations.

Other drivers that were trending in the right direction in terms of speed included the likes of Ross Chastain, AJ Allmendinger, and Aric Almirola. Meanwhile, I was unimpressed with last year’s winner Daniel Suarez. The defending winner obviously draws some attention this week but the #99 team struggled throughout Saturday afternoon. Likewise, there were some other names that surprisingly struggled as well which include a group of names like Kyle Busch, William Byron, and Ryan Blaney. Obviously, that trio of names has been fast nearly everywhere this season but their lap times were not up to par on Saturday.

Betting Targets

With the speed the Toyotas have shown this weekend, Tyler Reddick is the clear #1 going into Sunday. However, I think there are several drivers within striking distance. I believe Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Larson are the next two biggest threats. However with no stage breaks and strategy potentially coming into play, I think this is a race where we should sprinkle more bets that pivot from the top guys. A handful of drivers that I really like include Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain, and AJ Allmedinger who I believe are all worthy of spoiling the show. Gibbs may be one of my favorite H2H options this week because he is a road course ace and he is starting to find his groove in the Cup Series. As a result, this should be an opportunistic weekend for the rookie.

In terms of H2H targets, I don’t think we are going to find a ton of value in the top 10 drivers this week because they are all separated by a razor thin margin in terms of outright speed. However in the lower half of the totem pole, I like Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, and once again Chris Buescher are the drivers that I believe should be much better than most would have expected prior to the weekend. All 3 drivers have legitimate top 5 ceilings and who knows if things really get crazy, perhaps they could steal a victory with a strategy play. Meanwhile, Cindric, Almirola, and Zane Smith are some fantasy options that should bring value to everyone’s lineup as well.

2023 Draftkings Toyota/Save Mart 350 Optimal Lineup



2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Race Picks

*Final*
Tyler Reddick +350 (1 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +1000 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1400 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +2000 (.5 unit)


H2H Match-ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -125 over Chase Elliott (3 units)
Christopher Bell +100 over Chris Buescher (3 units)
Kevin Harvick +115 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Ross Chastain +350 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +1800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)