2023 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 2nd, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: FOX

Last week, Tyler Reddick earned his 1st victory with 23XI Racing at Circuit of the Americas after surviving 3 overtime restarts. Reddick’s victory extended NASCAR’s undeniable trend of parity in the Cup Series. After producing a record setting 19 different winners a year ago, the Cup Series has produced 5 different winners through the opening 6 races of the year. On Sunday, NASCAR’s top series will return to Richmond Raceway for exciting short-track racing with the running of the Toyota Owners 400 and if you look at the drivers that typically run well upfront at Richmond; we could easily see another first-time season winner again on Sunday!

Unfortunately, bettors will enter Sunday’s 400 lap race relatively blind. On Saturday, practice and qualifying sessions were both rained out for the Toyota Owners 400. As a result, Alex Bowman will have the honor of leading the field to green as the starting lineup will be set by the rulebook. Bowman and the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers won part of their appeal this week which is the reason Bowman is the new points leader. Following the Phoenix race, Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers received hefty L2 penalties which included a loss of 100 driver points and 10 playoff points. However, the NASCAR appeals panel amended the penalties on Wednesday which awarded points back to the drivers. For that reason, Alex Bowman regains the points lead and will get the privilege of starting outfront on Sunday.

Despite the starting order and points confusion, bettors simply need to know that there was not any practice or qualifying efforts this weekend. As a result, drivers will be entering Sunday’s race without any track time or any chance to prepare their setups. Furthermore, bettors will not have the luxury of comparing practice speeds or making any on-track performance observations ahead of Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400. While that is obviously not ideal, I would comfort everyone by stating that practice observations are often misleading at Richmond anyhow. Richmond Raceway is the epitome of a long-run short-track because it produces a tremendous amount of tire wear. The drivers that are able to take care of their equipment and keep a smooth wheel will shine as the laps wind down. Therefore, handicappers and bettors can take solace in historical trends that shed light into the drivers that excel at this style of racing.

Richmond Raceway – Quick Notes and Trends

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Richmond
• Denny Hamlin (defending Toyota Owners 400 winner) and Kevin Harvick are tied for 2nd among active drivers with 4 wins at Richmond
• Martin Truex Jr (3), Joey Logano (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Kyle Larson, and Alex Bowman are also former winners at Richmond.
• Christopher Bell owns the best career average finishing position (6.0) at Richmond among all active drivers.
• Denny Hamlin has the best average finishing position (5.3) over the last 10 races. Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in 8 of his last 10 starts at Richmond.
• Martin Truex has won 3 times in his last 7 starts at Richmond. Truex was actually in control of last year’s Toyota Owners 400 but lost the race on tire strategy.
• Ross Chastain has just one top 10 finish at Richmond in 8 career starts
• Toyota drivers have won 5 of the last 8 races at Richmond
• Despite stage racing, Richmond has produced 5 cautions or less in each of the last 8 races.

Richmond Raceway – Loop Data

Since finishing positions do not always tell the entire story, I wanted to compile loop data from the last 4 races at Richmond as a baseline viewpoint. Despite the changes from the old car to the Next Gen Car, Richmond remains one of those venues that heavily favors driver input behind the wheel. Additionally, I chose a 4 race sample because it includes both races from last with the Next Gen Car as 50% of our sample. As a result, we should be able to use the list below to outline performance anomalies or help identify potential targets/fades for our betting purposes. As you will see below, Denny Hamlin leads all drivers with an impressive 126.3 average rating. Hamlin, Truex, Logano, Hamlin, and Bell are all among the drivers with triple digit average ratings. Interestingly, all of those drivers with the exception of Truex also pop in our dynamic averages over the last 5 races at short tracks.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	126.3	5.0	2.3	2.3	4.0	17	212	431	1600
Martin Truex Jr	116.7	4.0	5.5	4.3	6.3	-21	166	267	1600
Joey Logano	112.1	9.8	4.0	7.8	5.0	18	87	272	1599
Christopher Bell	105.3	12.0	11.0	3.8	8.8	31	136	73	1600
Kevin Harvick	104.3	8.5	7.3	8.8	8.0	4	49	55	1597
Ryan Blaney	99.0	6.5	7.0	9.5	8.0	-15	40	129	1599
Kyle Busch	97.0	14.3	8.3	8.8	8.8	29	52	41	1600
William Byron	91.9	6.0	12.8	10.0	10.8	-36	43	122	1598
Kyle Larson	89.6	7.3	10.8	10.8	11.5	27	80	19	1597
Ross Chastain	88.4	11.3	9.8	14.8	10.5	-19	40	84	1596
Brad Keselowski	86.8	13.5	8.3	13.8	10.8	2	32	25	1598
Alex Bowman	84.9	17.3	15.0	10.3	13.8	45	68	10	1597
Aric Almirola	84.1	18.3	9.8	12.3	12.8	17	44	0	1597
Austin Dillon	74.2	16.8	17.0	11.8	15.8	1	17	1	1598
Chris Buescher	71.4	16.5	17.5	16.8	19.0	-14	44	0	1593
Chase Briscoe	68.1	17.8	18.8	18.0	18.3	-25	12	0	1593
Tyler Reddick	67.5	16.5	19.0	19.5	18.8	6	17	0	1590
Daniel Suarez	61.6	21.8	18.8	17.0	19.5	19	20	0	1595
Austin Cindric	59.5	30.3	19.3	20.0	20.7	41	10	0	1194
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	59.4	22.3	22.5	22.5	20.8	-9	45	6	1590
Ty Dillon	58.6	26.0	17.0	20.5	19.5	22	2	0	796
Erik Jones	57.9	18.8	20.5	24.5	21.8	-18	10	0	1434
Harrison Burton	57.4	23.5	21.0	21.5	21.0	-4	6	0	796
Bubba Wallace	54.7	20.5	20.0	24.3	22.5	-1	13	0	1581
Todd Gilliland	48.3	19.0	25.5	26.0	25.0	-16	2	0	794
Ryan Preece	47.7	22.5	27.0	27.0	26.0	16	7	0	792
Corey LaJoie	45.8	30.8	26.8	27.3	27.0	2	2	0	1582
Michael McDowell	44.6	24.3	29.5	28.5	28.0	-31	37	0	1581
Justin Haley	41.1	31.5	29.0	28.8	28.8	-12	12	0	1191
B.J. McLeod	32.1	34.3	32.8	32.3	32.0	-12	0	0	1564

Betting Targets

Before we dive into betting targets, I would throw out the notion that strategy will likely be a factor again on Sunday. While we cannot always handicap the strategy factor, there is a chance strategy (tire) impacts the outcome of this event. If nothing else, we should keep this stored in the back of our minds and not shy away from bets that offer tremendous value whether they are futures (win) or prop bets if we believe drivers have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest and somehow are the ones that benefit from a strong tire strategy on Sunday.

As things currently stand, I am bullish on Denny Hamlin’s chances to get his first victory this season on Sunday. Hamlin has been phenomenal at Richmond and has been ticking all the right boxes in terms of momentum and similar performance metrics compared to Richmond. Despite the slow start from the Toyota camp, I think Hamlin and Christopher Bell are legitimate contenders for Sunday. I also believe Martin Truex Jr and Kevin Harvick deserve to be in the conversation among the favorites. However, I hate the 6-1 betting odds Harvick is currently receiving and I just have not seen enough from Truex with this new car to confidently pick him despite the fact this track is made for his driving style.

To be honest, I am going to play the futures (win) bets very conservatively which is the new normal for Cup Series races. Despite my leans towards Hamlin and Bell as the top betting options, I cannot overlook the speed that the Hendrick Motorsports cars have shown in recent weeks which brings redhot William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Alex Bowman into the conversation. With that being said, I am sticking to my driving style’s handicapping angle which I believe deserves the most weight for Richmond opposed to current performance trends.

For H2H options, I will be looking at potentially fading the Team Penske camp of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney especially if I can find favorable targets against those drivers. I have watched the Team Penske cars closely this season and they have struggled on the long-runs which is a disastrous trend for a place like Richmond. Blaney specifically has never been great at Richmond despite his finishes having improved over the last two years. However, I just think there are much better options to fade this duo since both drivers are among the outright favorites this week.

For sharp betting targets for H2H match-ups, I absolutely love Christopher Bell and Josh Berry based on their current betting odds compared to their potential ceilings. Bell was extremely strong at the end of 2022 at the shorter layouts and is probably a much better short track driver than people give him credit for. Meanwhile, Berry continues to pilot the #9 for Chase Elliott. We know the equipment is strong yet Berry simply does not have a lot of experience. However, Richmond is the perfect style track for Berry to get the most of his talent as he excels at taking care of tires and maximizing long-run speed. Other deeper options for both fantasy and match-ups include Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon who both have a habit of getting solid finishes at Richmond.

Draftkings Toyota Owners 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +800 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1000 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Christopher Bell -115 over Martin Truex Jr (3 units)
Alex Bowman -140 over Chris Buescher (3 units)
Kevin Harvick -125 over William Byron (2 units)
Brad Keselowski +900 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +350 wins Group C (Buescher, Keselowski, Suarez)(1 unit)