2023 Toyota 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 3rd, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: World Wide Technology Raceway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series will participate in a double header on Saturday with back to back races. The Xfinity Series will be alone in Portland this weekend for their first road course race of the season. Meanwhile, the Craftsman Truck Series will join the Cup Series for racing at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway throughout the weekend. The action will kick off early Saturday when the Truck Series waves the green flag for the running of the Toyota 200 and there is a lot to discuss heading into this event!

One of the major storylines for the Truck Series this week involves points leader Corey Heim who will miss Saturday’s Toyota 200 due to an illness. Heim has been performing at a high level in recent weeks and is the defending winner of this race last year. In recent weeks, I believe I have taken Heim in H2H match-ups on several occasions after noticing the #11 team’s hot streak. For Saturday, Heim’s replacement will be emerging ARCA star Jesse Love who will officially make his Truck Series debut. Love has won the last 3 ARCA races and is widely known as a diversified upcoming talent. Needless to say, it will be interesting to monitor Love’s debut because the racing world will likely be seeing a lot of the 18 year old in the coming years.

Unlike the Cup Series which made their debut at Gateway last season, the Truck Series has competed annually at Gateway since 2014. Therefore, the veterans in the series definitely should have an experience edge around this rather unique 1.25 mile egg-shaped oval. Oddly enough, there are not any former Truck Series winners at Gateway competing this weekend meaning whomever gets the job done will be a first-time winner at World Wide Technology Raceway which has become a growing theme in the Truck Series. In fact, the Truck Series has produced 8 different winners in the last 8 races and there is a decent possibility that streak continues on Saturday.

Friday Practice Observations

In Friday’s practice, Ty Majeski emerged from the relatively brief session as the fastest man in town. Majeski posted a fast lap of 134.465mph and led a group of Thorsport Racing trucks that captured 3 of the top 4 fastest times. On the stopwatch, Majeski obviously fired off well which was the case for most of the Thorsport Racing trucks which included last week’s winner Ben Rhodes and Matt Crafton. However, I thought Christian Eckes appeared to be the best truck overall in terms of race speed. Eckes posted the 2nd fastest time in single lap speed but appeared to be even better in race trim. Eckes beat Majeski by .15 on average on the 10 lap consecutive charts and showed very minimal fall off which could be very telling for Saturday’s Toyota 200 which will feature racing in very similar weather conditions.

While Eckes appeared to be the best truck overall, I was relatively surprised with the speed from guys like Matt Crafton and Stewart Friesen in practice. Both Crafton and Friesen have struggled through the major part of the season. Friesen has shown much better speed in recent weeks while Crafton seems to be in the twilight days of his career. However, both veterans displayed very convincing speed in practice and have routinely performed well at Gateway in recent years. Other drivers that were also trending in the right direction that I have not mentioned yet included varying degrees of optimism from the likes of Nick Sanchez, Bayley Currey, and Rajah Caruth. I think you could throw Carson Hocevar into that discussion. Hocevar’s lap times were solid and he has finished in the top 5 in 3 straight races. However, I am starting to consider Hocevar among the group of weekly favorites and I’m not sure if displaying “winning” speed but the #42 was fast again nevertheless.

Betting Targets

For Saturday’s Toyota 200, I think legitimate arguments could be made for every driver in the top 6 starting positions, stemming from impound qualifying, which consists of Ty Majeski, Ben Rhodes, Christian Eckes, Carson Hocevar, Stewart Friesen, and Zane Smith. I put Smith into that category based on raw talent alone but it’s worth noting Smith has never been overly spectacular at Gateway. Through 4 career starts at Gateway, Smith’s best finish is 5th and I’m just not convinced this track expresses his strengths as a driver. Likewise, I would probably make a similar argument for Hocevar who is much better on higher banked tracks as opposed to flat surfaces. Therefore, I am steering clear of both Hocevar and Smith in terms of the outright win.

If I had to choose among the favorites, I really like Ben Rhodes from an experience/talent combination. Majeski appears to be the fastest of the Thorsport Racing brigade but I believe Rhodes could be equally dangerous in race trim. Speaking of race trim, I really like the speed from Chrstian Eckes and perhaps prefer the #19 over all other options. Stewart Friesen is probably the best dark horse from the group. Friesen has consistently run well at Gateway and the #52 team has started to regain “winning” speed in recent weeks. I think it is a matter of time for Friesen to get a win and while I think the team is far from “peaking,” I do believe Gateway provides a better chance for Friesen to win now as opposed to later.

For H2H specific options, I really like both Rajah Caruth and Matt Crafton as options in both H2H and fantasy formats. Both teams had trouble during tech inspections which thwarted qualifying efforts. As a result, both drivers will be starting at the rear of the field. Fortunately, both Caruth and Crafton showed strong speed in practice. Crafton has the experience that I think will be beneficial in match-ups especially after the qualifying debacle. Meanwhile, Caruth has been putting complete races together in recent weeks to match his outright speed. Therefore, I believe both guys present strong upside in match-up and fantasy formats. Other guys that deserve similar attention include guys like Matt DiBenedetto and Jesse Love who are among some other options that I expect to move forward once the green flag waves.

2023 Draftkings Toyota 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Toyota 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Christian Eckes +350 (2 units)
Ben Rhodes +1000 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Bayley Currey -130 over Jack Wood (3 units)
Carson Hocevar -110 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)