2023 The Loop 121 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 1st, 2023. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Chicago Street Course
TV: NBC
One of the most anticipated events of the season will happen this weekend when NASCAR introduces street course racing for the first time in series history. The action will begin on Saturday with the Xfinity Series’ running of The Loop 121 on the Chicago Street Course. Unlike other races this season, Cup Series’ drivers have been barred from competing on Saturday to ensure the playing field is level for both races on Saturday and Sunday. As a result, Xfinity and Cup Series drivers will both be faced with the difficult challenge of learning this newly designed 2.140 mile street course that will bring racing to industrial streets in downtown Chicago.
Personally, I am excited to see this weekend’s races even though I prefer it was on a different weekend. Call me old school but I’ve always believed that NASCAR should be racing at Daytona for July 4th. However, this weekend will be about understanding a different style of racing unfamiliar to fans and drivers. While I’m sure that some would argue that street course racing is similar to the various road course venues both series compete at throughout the season, I would agree that road course racing has a lot of similarities. However bettors, perhaps more than anyone, should understand that there are significant differences with street course racing as well.
For starters, street courses are obviously not designed for racing but rather made into a racing circuit. As a result, these courses generally have minimal banking, tighter racing surfaces, and perhaps most importantly produce less mechanical grip than traditional racing surfaces. Street courses usually tend to be bumpy or provide rough surface structure to their daily use. As a rule of thumb, drivers typically will need to utilize heavier braking as corner speeds tend to be slower due to the lack of grip. Obviously, there are more differences but I don’t want to spend our entire time discussing variances of street circuits. Therefore, let’s get into the facts that will matter on Saturday when the green flag waves for The Loop 121.
Handicapping and Understanding Chicago’s Street Course
Xfinity Series’ teams and drivers will have one afternoon to try and figure out this 12-turn layout that produces 2.14 miles of racing that will produce the majority of the racing action on South Columbus Drive, South Lake Shore Drive, and South Michigan Avenue. In reviewing this unique layout, I have come to one conclusion in that this Chicago Street Course is truly unique. Most of the turns will feature 90 degree right and left handers with an oversized “inner loop” at the latter end of the circuit on South Michigan Avenue before two 90 degree right hand turns bring drivers back to the start/finish line.
Personally, I would love to tell bettors that there is another road course that closely resembles Chicago’s Street Course but that is simply not true. I can see some similarities that this circuit produces with Watkins Glen but it also has major differences as well. In conclusion, I don’t think this circuit is truly “similar” to any other venues either series has competed at in recent years. From a handicapping perspective, I believe our best recipe for producing solid expectations is to review how teams/drivers have performed at all of the road courses this season while continuing to understand that this is a “wild card” type of race which should result in a conservative betting approach. With that being said, let’s dive into the analytics.
Road Course Loop Data
In the below chart, I have compiled loop data results from the prior 3 road course races in the Xfinity Series this season. These results feature all of the Xfinity Series full-time and part-time drivers with at least two starts at the road course events this season which basically produces data for all of the competitors that will be competing in Saturday’s The Loop 121. As you can see, Justin Allgaier leads all drivers with a 112.9 average rating this season from competition at Circuit of the Americas, Portland, and Sonoma. Obviously, Allgaier’s top spot may not be surprising as he is likely one of the most talented drivers in the Xfinity Series this season and he has been a solid road course talent throughout his career.
Others may find names like Sheldon Creed (109.1) and Sam Mayer (96.0) as surprising front-runners in our road course analytics. Obviously, those names do not surprise me at all. I have advocated for both Creed and Mayer throughout the season at the road course venues. Both drivers are extremely underrated road course talents that should be considered live dark horses going into the weekend. Personally, I think the bigger question is who will emerge from the group of drivers behind the top 3 mentioned above? John Hunter Nemechek has been fast everywhere this season though I would fall short of labeling him a “road course” talent. Austin Hill and Cole Custer have enough talent to hit lightning in a bottle. Meanwhile, I’m sure there could be even bigger surprise names that make their way to the front on Saturday especially with names like Justin Marks (#10), Connor Mosack (#19), and others joining the competition in stellar equipment. Needless to say, I’m hoping practice observations potentially yield some potential dark horses that could provide betting opportunities.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Justin Allgaier | 112.1 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 35 | 8 | 23 | 202 |
| Sheldon Creed | 109.1 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 6.3 | -3 | 11 | 63 | 202 |
| Sam Mayer | 96.0 | 18.7 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 202 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 92.0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 17.7 | 8.3 | -53 | 10 | 3 | 202 |
| Cole Custer | 91.5 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 56 | 7 | 5 | 201 |
| Austin Hill | 90.6 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 16.7 | 14.0 | -34 | 2 | 4 | 169 |
| Parker Kligerman | 85.8 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 16.7 | 11.0 | -4 | 13 | 1 | 202 |
| Daniel Hemric | 84.6 | 9.7 | 23.7 | 17.3 | 17.7 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 172 |
| Sammy Smith | 83.6 | 9.3 | 15.7 | 14.3 | 16.7 | -9 | 6 | 0 | 200 |
| Riley Herbst | 80.1 | 14.0 | 16.3 | 19.0 | 14.3 | -56 | 0 | 0 | 190 |
| Josh Berry | 76.1 | 12.3 | 26.7 | 15.0 | 20.7 | -17 | 4 | 0 | 199 |
| Chandler Smith | 75.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 11.7 | 18.0 | -9 | 0 | 0 | 202 |
| Brett Moffitt | 73.5 | 20.3 | 13.3 | 19.3 | 17.3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 183 |
| Alex Labbe | 71.2 | 16.3 | 15.3 | 17.0 | 16.7 | -11 | 1 | 2 | 202 |
| Brandon Jones | 71.2 | 30.3 | 25.3 | 15.0 | 19.7 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 202 |
| Jeremy Clements | 62.6 | 23.0 | 24.0 | 17.7 | 21.7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 202 |
| Kaz Grala | 62.0 | 21.7 | 18.7 | 21.3 | 20.7 | -18 | 1 | 0 | 202 |
| Connor Mosack | 58.6 | 20.7 | 20.0 | 19.7 | 20.7 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 201 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 55.9 | 24.3 | 26.0 | 24.0 | 25.3 | -27 | 0 | 0 | 144 |
| Kyle Weatherman | 54.6 | 25.5 | 24.0 | 22.0 | 23.0 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 125 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 52.8 | 27.7 | 21.0 | 24.7 | 23.3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 167 |
| Ryan Sieg | 50.3 | 29.7 | 21.3 | 23.0 | 24.3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 202 |
| Blaine Perkins | 49.0 | 31.5 | 26.0 | 22.5 | 26.5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 156 |
| Josh Williams | 49.0 | 25.0 | 28.5 | 25.5 | 26.5 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 137 |
| Sage Karam | 40.3 | 18.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 29.0 | -36 | 2 | 0 | 94 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 38.8 | 34.0 | 30.0 | 26.7 | 29.7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 182 |
| Preston Pardus | 37.6 | 22.0 | 29.0 | 33.5 | 31.0 | -19 | 0 | 0 | 88 |
| Brad Perez | 37.5 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 29.0 | 29.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 125 |
| Joe Graf Jr | 35.0 | 35.3 | 32.0 | 28.0 | 31.3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 202 |
Betting Targets
Unfortunately, practice will take place only a few hours before Saturday’s green flag which means I will not have time to update our preview. However, rest assured I will be watching practice closely to determine if any potential “surprises” emerge before finalizing our betting card. For now, I am going to stick to some of the horses I have been riding all year at this “style” of racing in the likes of Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer. I believe both drivers can be targeted in H2H formats with confidence and additionally have enough ROI value to yield consideration for the outright victory.
Since this is a new track where drivers will literally be learning throughout the afternoon, I would prefer siding with the betting options that produce the better ROI rather than taking my chances on heavy favorites like Allgaier and Custer. With that being said, I will say don’t overlook the Joe Gibbs Racing brigade of Nemechek, Sammy Smith, and Mosack. The JGR cars have been phenomenal in the Xfinity Series this year especially at the shorter venues and this street course is going to race like a lot of short tracks compiled together. Smith is probably my favorite option out of the bunch in H2H formats but Nemechek/Mosack probably have the higher ceilings as well.
Additional names that I believe everyone should keep on their radar further into the pack include Justin Marks who will be behind the wheel of the #10 car at Kaulig Racing. Marks is a solid road course style talent and will be in one of the better rides in the series. Preston Pardus and Miguel Paludo are some others that will likely perform solid as well.
2023 The Loop 121 Race Picks
*Final*
Sheldon Creed +700 (1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1000 (.75 units)
Sam Mayer +1400 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
John Hunter Nemechek -125 over Parker Kligerman (2 units)
Sam Mayer -110 over Connor Mosack (2 units)
