2023 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 24th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Superspeedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series steps into the spotlight on Saturday with the running of the Tennessee Lottery 250 at Nashville Superspeedway. In the last series event two weeks ago at Sonoma, Aric Almirola delivered one of the biggest upset victories of the year. Almirola’s victory also continued a pretty remarkable streak that has now featured 9 different winners in the last 9 Xfinity Series races. For the first time in decades, the Xfinity Series has yielded unprecedented parity and that has made handicapping difficult. However, we look to score an Xfinity Series winner and provide some sharp betting opportunities with our race picks for the Tennessee Lottery 250!

Similar to the Truck Series, the Xfinity Series has been racing at Nashville Superspeedway since 2001. However, the Xfinity Series just began racing regularly against Nashville in 2021 which aligns with all other NASCAR touring series. In the prior two Xfinity Series events, we have witnessed Kyle Busch and Justin Allgaier score victories. Most recently, Allgaier dominated last year’s Tennessee Lottery 250 by leading 134 of 188 laps en route to victory. Interestingly, Allgaier has been the hottest driver in the Xfinity Series in recent weeks with top 3 finishes in 4 of the last 5 races which also includes the victory at Charlotte. As a result, Allgaier enters this week with the momentum and the Nashville resume that will make expectations soar.

Personally, I believe Allgaier is a deserving favorite this week but there are several drivers in Saturday’s field that could steal the show. Reigning Xfinity Series Champion Ty Gibbs will step down from the Cup Series to join the competition this week. Not to mention, several other young drivers will be filling part-time roles in the likes of Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith. Lastly, there are several Xfinity Series regulars that have proved worthy of betting consideration at times this season as well. Therefore, we have a lot to consider and we will be looking for those drivers with the combination of momentum and driving style to yield some betting insight.

Nashville Handicapping

If you happened to catch my Truck Series preview, I discussed in detail the different characteristics that Nashville yields. The concrete surface is unique, the track size is unique, and the flat surface is unique for the size of the speedway. As a result, Nashville Superspeedway typically favors those drivers that can “hustle” their cars through the corners and get back into the throttle the quickest. This driving style typically favors the drivers with the best car control and “driver pedigree” should be a considerable handicapping angle this weekend.

From a talent perspective, I would easily give the nod to Ty Gibbs this weekend despite this Tennessee Lottery 250 field is full of talented young drivers. However, Gibbs should definitely get the nod as the most talented Xfinity Series talent. Behind Gibbs, we could start to argue the rankings of a lot of drivers throughout Saturday’s entry list. While our rankings may not always correlate, the main focus for bettors should be to target drivers that are more talented than their counterparts in H2H match-ups. I know that seems like it should always be the case but in reality; equipment usually means just as much as driver talent. This week we will be looking at driver talent (skill sets) among all other variables in a similar handicapping formula that we would take at a Darlington Raceway despite the fact Nashville and Darlington are two completely separate types of tracks.

Practice Observations

Xfinity Series teams and drivers participated in practice Friday afternoon. Though qualifying will not take place until Saturday afternoon, Friday’s practice shed some light into potential race expectations. At the end of practice on Friday, Ty Gibbs solidified his spot as the overall favorite. Gibbs posted the fastest single lap speed at 155.520mph. Gibbs was also very solid in race speed as well which strengthens the argument for the #19. Along with Gibbs, Sam Mayer and Josh Berry were also really strong on the stopwatch. Berry the best 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap consecutive averages which is perhaps slightly surprising because the #9 team has not been nearly as strong as most expected this season.

Other drivers that were trending in the right direction includes the likes of John Hunter Nemechek, AJ Allmendinger, and Justin Allgaier. While those names are not surprising to anyone, I would also add names like Ryan Sieg and Carson Hocevar as less prestige names that also looked pretty sporty on the stopwatch. Meanwhile, I would label names like Cole Custer, Daniel Hemric, and Chandler Smith as the drivers that had disappointing practices. Personally, I thought Chandler Smith would be a sharp pick this weekend based on talent but his practice speeds were not indicative of a favorable betting target.

Betting Targets

Speaking of betting targets, I think Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 200 will be a less than ideal betting event. The favorites of Gibbs, Allgaier, and Berry have exhausted most betting value for the outright victory. Though I believe Gibbs is the most talented of the group, I would probably pivot to Allgaier with all the recent momentum as the better value options in futures (win) formats. In H2H formats, I believe Sam Mayer and Ryan Sieg are among the best betting options in terms of value. Both drivers have ceilings much higher than current betting odds suggest. As a result, I think both drivers can be considered strong H2H betting targets.

Again, I think that Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250 should be approached as a conservative betting opportunity due to the number of heavy favorites. I think bettors will likely find their best value in the form of H2H match-ups however I am still waiting to see all H2H options that will be offered. Remember, we are looking to bet on the drivers that have the best talent advantage. If that advantage is also combined with practice and equipment advantages, it strengthens our rationale for selecting our targets. Therefore, this week’s H2H betting selections will likely need to be evaluated on a case by case basis with the handicapping formula mentioned above.

2023 Draftkings Tennessee Lottery 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +400 (1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +600 (.75 units)
Sam Mayer +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chandler Smith -115 over Carson Hocevar (3 units)
Brandon Jones +115 over Zane Smith (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -110 over Cole Custer (2 units)