2023 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 2nd, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: USA

While the Cup Series playoffs will officially begin this weekend at Darlington Raceway, the Xfinity Series still has two races remaining in the regular season including Saturday’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200. Due to the fact Saturday’s race is a regular season event, this race remains open to Cup Series drivers and there are several prestigious names showing on the entry list which includes the likes of Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Ross Chastain. Needless to say, we will have a few heavy favorites from the Cup Series in competition on Saturday but we should have some sharp betting opportunities as well, especially in the form of H2H match-ups.

For those that have followed my handicapping throughout the years, perhaps you are well aware that Darlington Raceway is one of my favorite tracks both from a fan perspective and from a handicapping perspective. Darlington is one of those few tracks on the schedule where the driver makes the most speed from behind the wheel as opposed to equipment. In both Xfinity and Cup Series competition, the cream always seems to rise to the top in these races at Darlington and our handicapping priority will primarily be focused towards exploiting gaps in the driver talent department. Obviously, we will consider things like momentum, equipment, and historical narratives but we can simplify our betting strategy by focusing on the best drivers.

With that being said, Kyle Larson steps down from the Cup Series this week as he seeks the season sweep at Darlington. Larson captured the win in the Shriners Children’s 200 at Darlington back in May. Many fans may remember that race due to the dramatic finish between Larson and John Hunter Nemechek. The two drivers bounced off each other coming to the checkered flag which resulted in Nemechek hitting the inside wall and Larson limping to the finish line to capture the win. This week the competition could be even stiffer with the likes of Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain joining the action. However, Chastain has not been very strong in Xfinity Series competition this year and Busch has never been “great” at Darlington Raceway. Therefore, Larson and Nemechek should be top-tier threats once again this week.

Darlington Historical Trends – Xfinity Series

While the importance of historical trends changes from week to week, I personally believe historical trends are very important towards handicapping Darlington Raceway. Before Larson’s win in the spring, Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier had each won the last 4 races at Darlington in the Xfinity Series. Obviously Gragson is no longer in the series but Allgaier remains one of the better talents among the Xfinity Series regulars when it comes to Darlington Raceway. However, there are several other statistics that we should consider going into this weekend and I have provided those handicapping notes below:

• Denny Hamlin has 5 career wins at Darlington Raceway but has failed to win in his last 4 starts.
• Kyle Busch has two wins, 3 runner-up finishes, and a 4th place result in his last 6 starts at Darlington.
• Cole Custer has a win, runner-up finished, and 3rd place result in his last 3 starts at Darlington.
• Kyle Larson has never finished worse than 7th in 6 career starts at Darlington however he has led just 61 laps in those events as well (48 in the spring).
• John Hunter Nemechek has posted two top 5 finishes in his last 3 starts at Darlington with two different race teams. Nemechek led a race-high 57 laps in the spring in his first start in JGR equipment.
• Ross Chastain has just 1 top 5 finish (2nd place) in 8 career starts at Darlington.
• Justin Allgaier has two wins, and 4 top 5 finishes in his last 5 starts at Darlington.
• Despite a Darlington win in 2020, Brandon Jones has a measly 14.8 average finishing position at Darlington in 11 career starts.
• Daniel Hemric has a disappointing 15.8 average finishing position at Darlington in 9 career starts.
• Darlington has produced 8 cautions or more in 5 of the last 6 races

Betting Targets

It would be pretty easy to just pick the 1-2 of the Cup Series drivers and try our luck at a low-reward style profit. While Larson, Busch, and Hamlin are heavy favorites, I think we would be ignorant to be surprised if another name was able to get into the thick of the hunt on Saturday. In the last few races at Darlington, we have witnessed John Hunter Nemechek go toe to toe with Kyle Larson and Sheldon Creed nearly pulled off an upset against Larson and Noah Gragson in this race last year. Therefore, I believe bettors should be ready for other drivers to be in contention this weekend. My personal favorite pivot among the favorites is John Hunter Nemechek. I think he is in the best equipment this weekend and has shown top-tier skills throughout his career at Darlington. I would not be surprised one bit to see Nemechek beat Larson and/or Busch straight-up this weekend. However, I would lean towards Hamlin as the driver to beat if I was forced to pick an overall favorite!

In terms of the outright victory, I am not going to go out on any big limbs this week. After all, this race historically has heavily favored the top talents in each field. With that being said, I do believe Justin Allgaier and Sheldon Creed are excellent H2H targets. I really like how the #2 team is performing with Creed going into Darlington. This team has had a few opportunities to win in recent weeks which have not come to fruition. However, Creed is really good at Darlington and I would expect him to have another quality opportunity this weekend. Creed can be targeted in all formats but I really like him in H2H formats. Another excellent betting target in H2H formats this week is Corey Heim who will be stepping up from Truck Series competition. Heim finished 10th in his only Xfinity Series start at Darlington in the spring and appears to be one of the best young raw talents. Therefore, keep Heim and perhaps Ryan Sieg as lower-tier options in both H2H and fantasy formats.

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Update: Practice and qualifying just concluded at Darlington Raceway for today’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200. At the end of qualifying, John Hunter Nemechek earned the pole with a fast lap of 29.804. I have been big on Nemechek all weekend and he definitely showed the speed needed to contend. Behind Nemechek, Denny Hamlin was also really solid in both sessions. I also thought Kyle Busch and Cole Custer were really solid in practices as well. It’s worth noting that practice speeds were split into two different groups and different track conditions contributed to the speed differences. Therefore on paper, it may appear that some guys did not have speed but that was solely a product of their time on the track.

Ultimately, I did not identify any major surprises. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the fact that Kyle Larson did not have the “elite” speed that many would expect. I’m sure Larson will race better but the #17 team did not show a ton of fire off speed. I would also say that Sheldon Creed was in a similar boat. Creed appeared to struggle quite a bit and I will be downsizing my expectations for the #2 car as a result. Meanwhile, guys like Justin Allgaier, Daniel Hemric, and Kaz Grala all appeared to be trending slightly above their expectations prior to on-track activities.

2023 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +300 (1.5 units)
John Hunter Nemechek +900 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Cole Custer -115 over Austin Hill (2 units)
John Hunter Nemechek +150 finishes Top 5 (2 units)