2023 SpeedyCash.com 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 1st, 2023. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

The Craftsman Truck Series will have the luxury of taking the primetime spotlight in this Saturday’s racing double-header. Shortly after the Xfinity Series completes the running of the ToyotaCare 250 at Richmond, the Craftsman Truck Series will take center stage at Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the SpeedyCash.com 250. Unlike the last two weeks where the Truck Series has accompanied the other NASCAR touring series, this week festivities at Texas will be a part of the annual spectacle that features back to back days of racing shared with the NTT IndyCar Series which will be competing on Sunday. Needless to say, both Saturday and Sunday will be filled with non-stop racing action.

Since the Truck Series will not be with the other NASCAR touring series this week, we do not have any big names from the Xfinity or Cup Series competing this weekend. A few of the part-time entries include guys like Trey Hutchens, Chad Chastain, and Ryan Vargas who are simply trying to get more driving opportunities. Therefore, Saturday’s SpeedyCash.com will likely be decided by the Craftsman Truck Series’ drivers that are full-time competitors who are also in the fight for this year’s championship. With that talent skimmed down, reigning Truck Series champion Zane Smith will enter this weekend’s event as the clear and undeniable betting favorite.

While Smith deserves the respect as the overall betting favorite, we deserve to look at several additional betting options in case we get another semi-surprise winner like we did last year when Stewart Friesen captured just the 3rd win of his career. Texas Motor Speedway is one of the tracks where drivers must minimize the time off the throttle and keep as much forward momentum throughout the corner. This usually favors drivers that can drive the car on the edge and Friesen definitely fits that description considering his prestigious resume on the dirt where cars are driven on a fine-line. Beyond Friesen, there are several other drivers that fit that driving style description and also require betting attention as we approach Saturday’s opener at Texas.

SpeedyCash.com 250 Handicapping Notes

Since the Craftsman Truck Series will be solo this weekend and teams will be limited on staffing help, the rules for Saturday’s SpeedyCash.com 250 are worth mentioning for betting purposes. In these cost-saving races where the Truck Series does not have their full teams available, NASCAR has opted to use a restricted pit format. As we have seen occasionally in previous races, teams will only be allowed to pit for tires during the competition caution and stage breaks unless for mechanical reasons. Pit stops will be non-competitive meaning trucks will enter and exit the pits in the same positions while being given a total time of 3 minutes to make adjustments.

The reason I am mentioning these rules is because this format essentially eliminates the possibility of pit strategy impacting the outcome of this event. Furthermore it will give ill-handling trucks and teams additional time to make big-swing adjustments. If we assume trucks should be handling decently by the outcome and pit strategy will not play into the equation, we can essentially focus on the trucks and drivers that should produce the most speed in a straight-up handicapping narrative. Furthermore if we find the value that we desire, this format plays into the handicappers hands. If we can simply avoid any mistakes, accidents, or late-race penalties, we should have a solid handicapping edge given we target the correct betting options. As a result, I believe we can be relatively aggressive with our betting approach and confidence levels this week.

Betting Targets

Obviously, Zane Smith is the man to beat in the Truck Series on a weekly basis at this point. I have the utmost respect for Smith and his ability is undeniable on a weekly basis. However, if I am going to be extremely technical, Smith has not been overly exceptional on the 1.5 mile tracks which means that I cannot justify betting Smith at his current odds. Instead, I am looking for betting value options to target for the outright win that will bring better ROI to our lineups. I’m not necessarily looking for long shots but just better options based on value compared to winning probabilities.

Among the guys that I believe deserve immediate betting consideration include both Christian Eckes and Ty Majeski. Majeski was one of the hottest drivers at the end of 2022 and has been excellent on the 1.5 mile surfaces. Meanwhile, I believe Eckes is going to be your breakout driver in the Truck Series this season. Eckes challenged the leaders in this race a year ago and I would argue that he is in even better equipment this season with McAnally Hilgemann Racing. In fact, I would list Eckes as my sharpest play of the weekend that can be targeted in all betting formats.

For H2H options and potential dark horses, Carson Hocevar and Jack Wood are excellent options in their current betting ranges. Hocevar thrives at these near wide-open style 1.5 mile venues and I believe he has the wheelman talent to run well if he can avoid mistakes, which for Hocevar is sometimes a difficult request. For Wood, I simply believe he is in much better equipment than odds suggests. I took a similar stance with Wood at Atlanta where I thought equipment/horsepower would create track position advantages for the #51 truck. I think the same narrative is in-play again this week for a truck that should have a ton of “raw” speed. Lastly, Tanner Gray and Tyler Ankrum are a couple of lower-tier names that should produce dark horse value in both H2H match-ups and potentially in fantasy line-ups depending on qualifying (place-differential potential) results.

Practice and Qualifying Observations (Saturday) – Final Thoughts

Truck Series’ drivers were granted a brief practice session followed immediately by impound qualifying on Saturday. At the end of both sessions, Nick Sanchez emerged as the surprise story of the afternoon. Sanchez backed up a strong practice effort by taking the pole for the SpeedyCash.com 250 with a fast lap of 185.510mph. While Sanchez will lead the field to the green flag, I still believe practice vindicating our betting selections because Christian Eckes clearly appeared to be the fastest guy on the longer runs. On the 10 lap average charts, Eckes was more than 3 tenths faster per lap than nearest competitor Corey Heim. As a result, I am still very high on Eckes’ chances going into this afternoon’s race just as I was going into the weekend.

Additional practice observations include nod of the caps to Ben Rhodes and Ty Majeski who both appeared to have the speed that most everyone expected. Perhaps less popular or unexpected names that seemed to be clearly trending in a direction that exceeds expectations includes Jack Wood (predicted above), Matt DiBenedetto, and Tanner Gray. Meanwhile, Zane Smith was not one of the trucks that impressed in practice. Despite entering the weekend as the overall betting favorite, Smith posted a lackluster practice session followed by an 18th place qualifying effort. Other names that seemingly struggled in this morning’s early sessions included the likes of last year’s winner Stewart Friesen, Matt Crafton, and Grant Enfinger.

Draftkings SpeedyCash.com 250 Optimal Lineup

*Taylor Gray shown above in the optimal Draftkings lineup

2023 SpeedyCash.com 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Christian Eckes +750 (1 unit)
Nick Sanchez +1200 (.75 unit)
Carson Hocevar +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Christian Eckes -110 over Corey Heim (3 units)
Ben Rhodes -110 over Nick Sanchez (2 units)
Taylor Gray +115 over Matt Crafton (2 units)