2023 South Point 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 15th, 2023. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: NBC

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series playoffs continue with the start of the Round of 8 in the running of the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Just 3 races are remaining to determine the final four drivers that will fight for a championship at Phoenix which means every race moving forward will have huge playoff implications for the championship contenders. With that being said, AJ Allmendinger proved last week that our betting focus does not always reside with the championship contenders. Allmendinger became the first non-championship contender to win in this year’s playoffs courtesy of his victory at the ROVAL. Therefore, we will be sure to discuss some of the drivers that could steal the spotlight yet again in Sin City.

On Saturday, Christopher Bell won the Busch Pole with a fast lap of 186.335mph. If that sounds like a familiar statement, it is because Bell has won the pole in 4 of the last 7 races. Bell has 5 pole awards on the season but has yet to win from the pole position. In fact, Bell is still searching for his first victory of the year on pavement because his only prior win this season was on the dirt at Bristol. However, Bell has shown excellent speed in recent weeks which coincides with the better performance from the Toyota teams, especially on the intermediate layouts, through the 2nd half of the season.

Earlier this year, the Hendrick Motorsports displayed a clear speed advantage on the 1.5 mile surfaces which was evident back in the spring race at Las Vegas. In that race, William Byron and Kyle Larson combined to lead 265 of 317 laps with Byron getting the victory. Byron and Larson seemed to lead most of the early season races at the intermediate speedways but we have seen better parity throughout the 2nd half of the season. Along with better parity, we have also seen the Toyota teams potentially take the slight outright advantage in the garage in terms of performance. Therefore, the Toyota speed should be respected going into a difficult handicapping venue like Las Vegas.

Handicapping Strategy

I say that Las Vegas is a hard handicapping venue because like most 1.5 mile speedways in the Next Gen Car, there is not much driver difficulty. With the lower horsepower, drivers are nearly full throttle at these venues which means the pure speed is more tailored to the equipment/setup as opposed to the driver. For that reason, we must analyze the in-season performance trends closely because they will have more credibility than historical narratives. After we identify the in-season performance trends, we can also then discuss practice observations in a collective effort to narrow our betting targets for Sunday. Because of the parity, it may be advantageous to have a few higher reward plays on our roster whether it is through dark horse bets (futures) or high yield prop bets. For sharper betting value, H2H match-ups will give us our best opportunities.

Dynamic Averages

If we look at our dynamic averages for the intermediate speedways, we will get a data sample that displays collective loop data results from the last 5 races on traditional 1.5 mile speedways like Las Vegas. In the data, take notice that William Byron and Kyle Larson are still listed in the top 3 positions which has been consistent throughout the season. While Denny Hamlin is also in that top 3 category, I would point to the likes of Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick who are also in the top 5 average driver ratings. Both Wallace and Reddick from 23XI Racing have performed very well during the 2nd half of the season which likely means the team has found some speed that should be expected again on Sunday.

Behind the top guys, I think most of the data speaks for itself. Ryan Blaney has performed extremely well despite the publicized struggles from Team Penske. Penske teammate Joey Logano is the defending series champion and only has a 72.2 average driver rating over the same data. Therefore, I think this proves another known opinion in that Blaney is at his best on the 1.5 mile speedways. Further down our dynamic averages, I would also call out nods of the cap to guys like Ross Chastain and Kevin Harvick. Both drivers are having a relatively quiet year but have posted respectable numbers at the intermediate speedways.

Practice Observations

In practice early Saturday, Ross Chastain posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 186.858mph. Chastain actually posted his fast lap in the Group B which is noteworthy because most of the sessions fastest laps derived from Group A. The Group A cars had the luxury of cooler track conditions which means Chastain’s fastest lap was relatively impressive. With that being said, fast laps are really not worth any handicapping credibility because we really need to see how consistent cars will be in race conditions. Like I said before, drivers are nearly wide open every lap so we want to see the characteristics of the cars/teams rather than single lap speeds.

In terms of multi-lap observations, Ross Chastain backed up the single lap speed with the best overall averages. Chastain also laid down the fastest 5 lap consecutive averages. In fact, I think this was one of Chastain’s better practices since earlier in the year. As a result, Chastain’s stock is rising going into Sunday. Along with Chastain, the Hendrick Motorsports trio of Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Chase Elliott all displayed really good speed. Despite missing the playoffs, Elliott has been showing signs of returning to form and perhaps deserve some underdog value going into the weekend. Other drivers that appeared to show solid speed included the likes of Chris Buescher and Tyler Reddick. Meanwhile, drivers like Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney appeared to not show the speed that most would have expected.

Betting Targets

Since I believe futures (win) bets don’t offer the sharpness like H2H match-ups, most of the drivers that I will be selecting on Sunday will be those with the best betting value. I personally believe guys like Larson and Byron are probably the guys to beat. However, I think Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick are other top threats, on Sunday, with similar winning probabilities yet have the better betting value. If you wanted to go for even further long shots, Bubba Wallace and Alex Bowman may be solid dark horses for a much bigger victory.

For H2H match-ups, I believe Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, and Chris Buescher are among the guys that you want to target on Sunday. I think all 3 of those drivers have winning upside as noted above. Elliott perhaps is a risky H2H option because he will have to start at the rear of the field. However, Elliott is currently getting near 25-1 odds which are the same as guys like Joey Logano and Ty Gibbs. Needless to say, I think Elliott has much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. If you want guys that I probably would not bet to win but perhaps provide high ceilings, I would consider both Alex Bowman and Ricky Stenhouse Jr as strong options that could yield value in prop bet formats.

2023 South Point 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 South Point 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

William Byron +500 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +850 (1 unit)
Chris Buescher +1400 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +1400 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick +100 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Chase Elliott -125 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -115 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Alex Bowman +250 wins Group G (Harvick, Logano, Gibbs)(1 unit)
Bubba Wallace +800 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)