2023 Shriners Children’s 200 Race Picks

Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 13th, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

The 2nd leg of NASCAR’s throwback weekend will take place early Saturday afternoon when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag for the running of the Shriners Children’s 200. So far this season, the Xfinity Series has arguably produced the most parity out of any of NASCAR’s touring series with 7 different winners in the last 7 races. On Saturday several stars from both the Cup Series and Craftsman Truck Series will join the Xfinity Series regulars in hopes another new face will find victory lane. As a result, it’s time to discuss all the threats for Saturday and the best betting options for the Shriners Children’s 200!

Xfinity Series teams and drivers had the opportunity of participating in practice and qualifying sessions on Friday. At the end of impound qualifying, John Hunter Nemechek emerged with the pole winning speed at 166.062mph. Nemechek is the defending Truck Series winner at Darlington and has already made a splash this season in his full-time ride with Joe Gibbs Racing by scoring wins at Fontana and Martinsville. Nemechek was considered one of the favorites entering the weekend and definitely strengthened that argument on Friday. However, there are a ton of talented drivers in Saturday’s field that all deserve their respect in what promises to be an exciting race!

Perhaps one thing that needs to be mentioned is that Saturday’s Xfinity Series race is a relatively short race at just 200 miles (147 laps). Unlike recent races in the Truck Series and Cup Series, previously Xfinity Series races have been relatively tame. If that happens again, this could be a relatively quick race that will heavily favor long run speed. Therefore, drivers and teams must avoid any mistakes on pit road and capitalize on every restart. I normally do not give much weight towards starting positions but it should be something that is at least noted going into Saturday’s main event. Therefore, I may mention starting positions in this preview for that very reason and will also consider that factor when attempting to find value in H2H match-ups!

Handicapping Strategy

As stated in yesterday’s Truck Series preview, I put a heavy premium on driver talent as opposed to the drivers that are in the better equipment at Darlington. At most intermediate speedways, the driver is only as good as the speed under the hood. However, Darlington’s old and abrasive surface is the equalizer that yields to the drivers with better car control. As a result, I like my betting targets to always focus on the better drivers and rarely will I ever take a H2H driver that I consider inferior from their opponent in the talent department. If we stick to those basic principles, Darlington has historically been a good venue for handicappers.

Darlington – Xfinity Series Quick Notes

• Justin Allgaier (2) Brandon Jones, and Cole Custer are the only former Xfinity Series winners at Darlington in Saturday’s field. John Hunter Nemechek and Sheldon Creed (2) have both have Truck Series wins at Darlington on their resume.
• Chevrolet drivers from J.R. Motorsports have won each of the last 4 races at Darlington
• Justin Allgaier has won 2 of the last 4 races at Darlington.
• Kyle Larson has finished 4th-7th in all 6 career starts at Darlington
• Ty Dillon’s best finish is 7th at Darlington in 8 career starts
• Ryan Truex’s (most recent winner) best finish at Darlington is 15th in 3 career starts

Betting Targets

Both Ryan Truex and John Hunter Nemechek were extremely fast in practice and have to be given ultimate respect considering how well the JGR cars have performed this year. Truex finally broke through with his first career win at Dover two weeks ago and it was a race he absolutely dominated. Meanwhile, I have documented Nemechek’s success at Darlington in the Truck Series and he is one of those drivers that seems to run really well at these lower grip venues. If we have to decide between Truex and Nemechek, I believe the driver of the #20 (JHN) gets the nod without question.

Obviously, I think Kyle Larson is the most talented driver in the field and I would expect he will get more dangerous as the laps wind down. Larson nearly rallied to a win last year in the final laps but got into a last lap incident with Sheldon Creed which ultimately allowed Noah Gragson to get the victory. Both Larson and Sheldon Creed are excellent talents for Darlington Raceway. The problem is that I think Larson’s will be at a disadvantage in the equipment department, at least compared to the JGR cars. Therefore, I don’t see any value in betting him at his current odds. Creed on the other hand is a different story. Creed has the ceiling and upside to be targeted in all formats. Out of the cars that ran at least 25 laps, Creed was the driver that was laying down the fastest laps and I really expect him to run well on Saturday.

Other drivers that should be at the front of the field surround the likes of Justin Allgaier, Sam Mayer, and perhaps Sammy Smith. Obviously Allgaier’s resume at Darlington is self-evident with wins in 2 of this last 4 starts. Based on current odds, I think Allgaier has some decent betting value as opposed to Kyle Larson. I’m not sure if Allgaier has any H2H value since he is paired against mostly favorites but his current futures (win) odds are not that bad. For H2H match-ups, I believe Mayer and Smith both offer solid value. Based on how fast the JGR cars are as a collective group, Smith may produce the most sleeper value between the two options.

*Deeper H2H and potential fantasy targets include the likes of Ryan Sieg and Carson Hocevar

2023 Draftkings Shriners Children’s 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Shriners Children’s 200 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +250 (2 units)
Justin Allgaier +800 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Sheldon Creed -105 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Sam Mayer -110 over Austin Hill (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -115 over Corey Heim (2 units)