2023 Raptor King of Tough 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 18th, 2023. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will play second fiddle in Saturday’s double-header at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Shortly after the Craftsman Truck Series concludes the running of the FR8 208, the Xfinity Series will step into the spotlight for the running of the Raptor King of Tough 250. As described in our Truck Series preview, Atlanta Motor Speedway is now a superspeedway style event which means that this race will be similar to what you may witness at Daytona however it will be on a much shorter 1.5 mile surface which means things will happen extremely fast for drivers as they battle pack style racing in the Raptor King of Tough 250.

Last July, Austin Hill scored a victory in the most recent stop at Atlanta by winning the Alsco Uniforms 250. Hill was able to get the win at Atlanta in relatively dominating fashion by staying out in front of the chaos to lead 29 of the final 30 laps to bring home the checkered flag. In the races since last year’s win at Atlanta, I believe Hill has emerged as the best superspeedway talent in the Xfinity Series with back to back wins at Daytona last fall and in the season opener in February. With two wins already this season coming at Daytona and Las Vegas, Hill comes into Saturday’s race at Atlanta as an undeniable outright favorite ready to strike again.

Simply from a mathematical perspective, the odds would be against Hill continuing his winning streak at the superspeedways, especially when you consider the volatility that these races produce. However, I personally believe Hill is a rare superspeedway talent that will likely be in contention if he can survive all 250 miles. With that being said, there will still be plenty of competitors worthy of consideration this week. Back at Daytona, the J.R. Motorsports cars compiled 4 of the top 5 spots on the final restart but somehow failed to work together to get the job done. The J.R. Motorsports cars have traditionally been strong at the superspeedways and I would imagine there will be a better “team” focus this week in a redemption effort. Unfortunately between Hill and the J.R. Motorsports brigade, there is simply not a lot of betting value to support a normal range of betting for a superspeedway style race. Therefore, we are going to break-down a few potential betting targets among the favorites and look even deeper into the field for value in hopes to cash a betting ticket with better return.

Betting Strategy

As with any superspeedway style racing, we must approach betting with extreme caution. These races do not exactly favor handicappers because one big wreck can take out an entire betting lineup. With that thought in mind, I will say that Atlanta favors raw horsepower/speed more so than the traditional superspeedways like Daytona and Talladega which means track position will be important. If you look back at the July race at Atlanta, cars were not as bunched up as we witnessed in the spring race. There were several instances of breakaways from smaller groups of cars and I would imagine we will likely continue to see some variations of that racing as this track matures with this new pavement. The reason I mention these factors is because if we do see less pack-style racing then it will likely favor the fastest cars (AKA favorites) in this event and lessen the likelihood of a surprise winner. Therefore, we don’t want to just throw unnecessary risk towards this event just because it has the feeling of a “superspeedway” event.

Betting Targets

Despite the betting value, I am really leaning towards heavy stacking the J.R. Motorsports cars this weekend perhaps at lower risk plays. Justin Allgaier, Brandon Jones, Josh Berry, and Sam Mayer all looked incredibly strong at Daytona. Allgaier led 36 laps and was leading at the white flag. Berry has run surprisingly well at most of the superspeedways including Atlanta last summer. Meanwhile, Mayer has the highest betting odds out of the group which makes him a viable betting option. Despite odds and value, I just have a feeling that is going to come down to a few of those drivers this weekend if they can stay out of trouble.

Obviously there are numerous drivers throughout the field that deserve respect and there are too many names to mention who could potentially win this thing. Justin Haley returns to Kaulig Racing this week in the #10 car. Haley has been phenomenal at the superspeedways throughout his Xfinity Series career. Of course you also have the Joe Gibbs Racing brigade which has looked excellent this season with John Hunter Nemechek and Sammy Smith. Perhaps, one of the guys that deserves a potential call-out is Ryan Truex who will return to the #19 car this week with JGR. Truex got a runner-up finish last week in his first start with JGR this season. The runner-up position was the 3rd of Truex’s career despite never getting to victory lane. Truex finished 3rd at Atlanta last summer and definitely has the equipment to maintain track position this week. Needless to say, he is a name among the intermediate options that piques my interest.

As always with superspeedway racing, we have to consider the possibility of upset winners. Though I think it is statistically less likely at Atlanta, there is still a higher likelihood for a surprise winner this week when compared to our traditional ovals. A few drivers that have much higher ceilings than you would expect include guys like Ryan Sieg, Parker Retzlaff, and Jeb Burton. Each of those guys has consistently run towards the front at these types of races over the last year or so. Sieg and Burton especially have a lot of experience in these cars and have a habit of surviving until the closing laps which is often half the battle. Therefore, I would consider these guys as potential lottery options with some prop bet appeal as well.

Draftkings Raptor King of Tough 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 Raptor King of Tough 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Josh Berry +1000 (.75 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1000 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1600 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ryan Sieg +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Parker Retzlaff +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)