2023 Rackley Roofing 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday June 23rd, 2023. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Superspeedway
TV: FS1

Following the last off week of the season, all of NASCAR’s touring series will return to action this weekend at Nashville Superspeedway for 3 straight days of racing. The opening action kicks off Friday evening with the Craftsman Truck Series running of the Rackley Roofing 200. Friday’s return to Nashville will mark just the 16th Truck Series race in Music City and just the 3rd since NASCAR returned regularly to Nashville in 2021. Current Cup Series driver Ryan Preece won both of the prior two races (2021/2022) at Nashville. However, Friday’s entry list features all Truck Series regulars which means we will witness a new winner at the conclusion of 200 miles of racing.

For bettors, Nashville Superspeedway is a relatively unique 1.333 mile speedway. From a geometric standpoint, Nashville is shaped like most of your normal 1.5 mile intermediate speedways. However, the true size of the speedway is 1.333 miles which is more similar to the likes of Darlington Raceway. Like Darlington, the speedway itself races differently at both ends of the speedway. Unlike Darlington, the track features a concrete surface that is relatively flat with just 14 degrees of banking. Needless to say from a driver perspective, Nashville is one of those venues that really favors the aggressive drivers that have strong car control on the flat surface.

The Cup Series made its debut at Nashville in 2021 and the first two winners have featured two of the sports’ best in Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. Likewise, we could argue that Ryan Preece (winner of the last two CTS races) was likely the most talented driver in each of those races. Therefore, I believe bettors should realize that these races at Nashville typically favor the top driving talents and that is something that is information that should be retained for all 3 races this weekend. While Truck Series’ teams will not officially hit the track until Friday afternoon for the opening practice, I wanted to go ahead and discuss betting expectations going into Friday night’s main event!

Nashville Handicapping

Personally, I believe Nashville drives a lot like Dover with significantly less banking. The concrete surfaces are comparable but we must yield handicapping expectations to those drivers that also run well on flatter surfaces. The Truck Series was last in competition nearly 3 weeks ago at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway. In that race, Grant Enfinger surprisingly emerged with his 2nd win in just the last 5 races. Enfinger has been an exceptional driver on flatter surfaces throughout his career and I believe he is worthy of consideration yet again simply based on similar handicapping metrics.

With that being said, I expect that the field will be chasing Zane Smith with all things considered. Smith won at Dover back in 2020 as a newcomer in the sport. More importantly, Smith has run very well in each of his prior two starts at Nashville. In last year’s race, Smith led 70 laps, posted an outstanding 133.8 driver rating, and averaged a running position of 2nd. Smith posted slightly less impressive results in his 2021 debut at Nashville which resulted in a 5th place effort and 114.1 driver rating. Judging by the talent in Friday’s entry list, I can say with full confidence that Smith should be the driver to beat, especially given the fact that Nashville favors driver input more so than equipment. The #38 team has had a couple of “off” races in recent weeks but this should be a prime bounce back spot for the best driver in the series.

There is a long list of drivers that I will be watching closely going into Friday’s practice as potential spoilers. Ty Majeski, Carson Hocevar, and Christian Eckes have nearly proved consideration worthy on a weekly basis at this point. Riding a wave of momentum in recent months, Carson Hocevar has posted 4 straight top 5 finishes and definitely has the aggressive driving style suitable for Nashville. However, if I am being honest, Majeski likely has the best driving style of the group of drivers behind Smith to make a run at a Music City trophy. Another driver that may not be in the conversation for the outright victory but should be on everyone’s radar from a H2H perspective includes the driver of the #11 in Corey Heim. Heim won earlier this year on the concrete at Martinsville and has a win at Gateway which draws some comparisons to Nashville as well. Heim is another one of those drivers, like Hocevar, that has been running very well in recent weeks and I believe he will produce considerable H2H value going into the weekend.

Betting Targets

Based on current betting odds, I was shocked to see Corey Heim receiving the overall favorite odds. I guess I was spot-on with my H2H dark horse however I had no idea that he would be getting such short odds. Though Heim’s value is less than expected, Zane Smith at 5-1 odds is actually better than expected. At such odds, I think Smith can be taken early and can even be considered in H2H formats. Unfortunately, Smith is the only guy that I would pull the trigger on going into Friday’s on-track activities. I will be looking forward to practice to possibly shed light on other betting options, among the favorites. As of now, the betting odds are simply not good for the top 6-8 drivers to warrant early action.

For other H2H options, I have some early expectations that Christian Eckes will be among the drivers that emerge from the favorites’ group as a surprise contender. The #19 team had an excellent run at Nashville last year with Derek Kraus and Eckes has the talent to win. In my opinion, anything less than a top 5 effort would be a disappointment for Eckes on Friday. Meanwhile deeper in the field, I will be closing watching the likes of Stewart Friesen, Chase Purdy, and Daniel Dye as the guys that should bring maximum H2H value. Any others that potentially arise as betting options, will be determined following practice and final observations which will be updated Friday afternoon.

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Update: Qualifying just concluded at Nashville Superspeedway and Nick Sanchez earned the pole with a lap of 29.571 (160.98mph). Ultimately, qualifying results were a mixed bag of volatility. Bayley Currey and Rajah Caruth had surprisingly strong efforts qualifying 2nd and 3rd. Meanwhile, there were several drivers that qualified worse than most would have expected. However, I would not worry too much about qualifying as single lap times are not indicative of race speed.

In practice prior to qualifying, Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith posted the fastest lap times and showed the best race speed by a significant margin. Both Hocevar and Smith were among our only two betting targets prior to Friday’s on-track activities and I am very pleased with the early value. It appears that Zane Smith’s truck does not fire off as well as some of the others but he showed really strong lap times after 4-5 laps. Outside of the Hocevar and Smith duo, Christian Eckes also showed really good “race” speed. Other drivers that appeared to have solid speed that may yield fantasy value includes the likes of Bayley Currey, Dean Thompson, and Taylor Gray.

2023 Draftkings Rackley Roofing 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Rackley Roofing 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Zane Smith +500 (1.5 units)
Carson Hocevar +800 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ty Majeski +155 over Christian Eckes (2 units)
Hocevar +250 wins Group B (Enfinger, Friesen, Sanchez)(1 unit)