2023 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 9th, 2023. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: NBC

The Cup Series returns to Atlanta Motor Speedway for racing under the lights on Sunday with the running of the Quaker State 400. Atlanta Motor Speedway has produced superspeedway style racing since the track’s repave and reconfiguration prior to the 2022 season. In both of last year’s races at Atlanta, the new style of racing produced 73 combined lead changes. Needless to say, Atlanta is now one of the “wild card” type races that yields the opportunity for any driver to visit victory lane and earn a playoff position. As we anticipate thrilling superspeedway action under the lights at Atlanta, let’s discuss what bettors should expect with our 2023 Quaker State 400 race picks!

Back in March, I advised that bettors should expect slightly less chaotic racing at Atlanta than they did a season ago. My reason for that expectation is that Atlanta no longer has the brand new pavement and I expected that the grip level would not be quite as strong. In the spring race, Joey Logano delivered an impressive performance by leading 140 of 260 laps en route to victory. Logano was able to maintain track position for the majority of the afternoon and I think that will be extremely important again on Sunday. Obviously, drafting will still be a factor however I do believe that drivers will have to come out of the throttle slightly and handling will be more important than last year’s events.

If you just look at the past two races at Atlanta, both winners (Chase Elliott and Joey Logano) started from the pole position in each race which only proves the track position importance narrative. Now obviously starting position does not correlate to automated success and track position can be flipped with strategy along with other factors. However, it is much easier to hold onto track position compared to driving through the field at a superspeedway style event that has a relatively narrow racing surface. Therefore, don’t be surprised if this race is a little less hectic than most would like you to believe going into Sunday!

Qualifying Results

Unlike most racing formats this season, Cup Series’ teams and drivers did not have any practice time at Atlanta Motor Speedway this week. However, qualifying was held earlier this afternoon which officially set the lineup for tomorrow’s Quaker State 400. In qualifying on Saturday, Aric Almirola earned the pole with a fast lap of 177.346mph marking just the 5th time Almirola has won the pole in his 12th and final season in Cup Series competition. As you will see in our loop data below, Almirola has always been a solid superspeedway driver and will have perhaps his best opportunity of the season to get a victory.

Surprisingly, Ford drivers captured the top 6 positions in qualifying which includes some superspeedway heavyweights in Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Kevin Harvick. The speed from the Fords is somewhat surprising considering their well-documented struggles this season. However, superspeedways generally have a tendency of eliminating weaknesses especially in race conditions. Outside of the top 6, Ford drivers also took 9 of the top 11 positions to clearly signal their strength in qualifying. Meanwhile, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing each had just 1 driver in the top 15 which is also surprising considering they have been the dominant teams throughout the season. Perhaps more than anything, we learned that qualifying is just qualifying. Still, the track position will be helpful if those drivers starting upfront can avoid mistakes.

Superspeedway Loop Data

For this race, I think our dynamic averages for the superspeedways are a noteworthy handicapping tool. As stated before, I don’t necessarily believe this race is a full-blown superspeedway race but I do believe it is worth considering how drivers have performed, in this car, in the last 5 superspeedway races including the spring race at Atlanta to identify both driver and team performance. As you will notice, Denny Hamlin leads all drivers with a 94.9 average rating. Meanwhile most recent winners Joey Logano and Chase Elliott round on the top 3 positions. Ryan Blaney, who has been one of the best at superspeedways in recent years, clocks in at 4th and Aric Almirola surprisingly locks into the number 5 position in our loop data performance metrics.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Erik Jones, and Austin Cindric have also posted relatively strong results. All 3 of those drivers are former Daytona winners and believe it or not: Atlanta races fairly close to Daytona in its current layout. On the other side of the spectrum, I would also point to the terrible metrics showing for drivers like Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Michael McDowell among others. Larson specifically has been terrible at the superspeedways throughout his career. In fact, Larson has just a single top 10 finish in his last 12 starts at superspeedways which is perhaps something to remember for bettors brave enough to bet H2H match-ups this weekend.

Betting Targets

I’m not sure if the speed from the Ford camp will translate into a strength during race conditions. However, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are always near the top of my favorites at the superspeedways. Both drivers are just special at this type of racing and will be starting at the front of the field. If the Fords have any advantage in race conditions, it just strengthens the argument for two of the best superspeedway talents in the field. If they do not have a “advantage,” they are both still more than capable of getting the job done. Blaney has actually finished 8th or better in each of his last 4 superspeedway starts including two runner-up finishes. Therefore, I give him the nod as the deserving top favorite going into Sunday.

Obviously, there are cases to be made throughout the field but I am not going to talk about the various possibilities that could unfold on Sunday. Instead, I am going to highlight the names that deserve attention based on all the handicapping metrics and current betting odds. For example, Ross Chastain finished runner-up in both Atlanta races last year and also had a strong run in the spring before a rather disappointing finish. I really like Chastain’s driving style for Atlanta which is checkers or wreckers. Along with Chastain, Denny Hamlin and William Byron are excellent pivot options from the outright favorites that are among the best talents in the field.

For better value, we have a ton of guys to consider. Aric Almirola was a driver I was really looking at going into the weekend. Unfortunately, his pole win on Saturday took away his betting value. Deeper into the field, I really like Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Corey LaJoie, and Austin Hill as the guys that could provide prop bet opportunities and warrant fantasy consideration. Stenhouse is the reigning Daytona 500 winner and is having an excellent season. LaJoie has finished in the top 5 in 2 of the last 3 races at Atlanta and nearly won this race last year. Meanwhile, Austin Hill has been the best superspeedway driver in recent memory in the Xfinity Series in recent years. Obviously, Hill is competing in inferior equipment this week in the #62 car but I would not be surprised if he makes the most of his opportunity if he can stay out of trouble.

Draftkings Quaker State 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1400 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +2000 (.75 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +2500 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3000 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -105 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1600 finishes as Top Chevy (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2000 finishes as Top Chevy (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +950 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Total cautions over (-145) 6.5 (2 units)