2023 Production Alliance Group 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday February 25th, 2023. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Auto Club Speedway
TV: FS1

Last week, Daytona International Speedway proved to be unpredictable yet again as our betting picks were spoiled by Ricky Stenhouse’s victory in the Daytona 500. Despite missing out on a winner, we managed to minimize losses thanks to a 3-unit prop bet that I felt was one of the easiest bets of the weekend on the over (13.5) race leaders. With the thought of superspeedway racing behind us, bettors can rejoice in the fact that true handicapping begins on Saturday with the return to traditional oval racing when the Xfinity Series waves the green flag for the running of the Production Alliance Group 300 at Auto Club Speedway!

The 2023 Xfinity Series driver line-up is absolutely stacked this season and this Saturday’s entry list for the Production Alliance Group 300 will be even more stacked as the likes of Austin Dillon, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick join the competition from the Cup Series. Among this year’s Xfinity Series’ cast includes Cole Custer who returns to the #00 at Stewart-Haas Racing after losing his Cup Series ride, John Hunter Nemechek will be with the #20 team at Joe Gibbs Racing, Chandler Smith in the #16 with Kaulig Racing, and the rest of the Xfinity Series’ veterans which includes big names like Austin Hill, Justin Allgaier, Josh Berry, and others who will get the opportunity to trade paint on a weekly basis this season. Needless to say, this Saturday’s field does not lack talent by any stretch of the imagination and we should expect a great race!

For those that may not be aware, this weekend’s stop at Auto Club Speedway could be the last of its kind. Track officials announced a few weeks ago that Auto Club Speedway would not host a race in 2024 because the facility will be transitioning to a short-track. Currently, Auto Club Speedway is among the few 2-mile speedways in the sport and personally one of my favorites because the track has plenty of character and tire wear. However, the speedway will be going through an extensive transition to bring another short track to the west coast. Therefore, this weekend’s race on the big oval will likely be the ending of an era in Fontana, California!

Auto Club Speedway – Xfinity Notes

• The last 23 winners at Auto Club Speedway have started inside the top 8 positions. The front row starting spots have produced winners in 12 of the last 23 events as well.
• Cole Custer (2) and Austin Dillon are the only former winners participating in Saturday’s event. Dillon won the 2016 race in Fontana while Custer has won 2 of the last 3 races including last year’s Production Alliance Group 300.
• Riley Herbst has strong finishes of 2nd and 9th in his only two starts at Auto Club Speedway which both occurred with different racing teams between Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing
• Justin Allgaier’s best finish at Auto Club Speedway is 2nd (2018). Allgaier has finished 8th or worse in 12 of 13 career starts in Fontana.
• Austin Dillon has finished inside the top 5 in 4 of his 5 career starts at Auto Club Speedway including his win in 2016. All of Dillon’s prior starts were with Richard Childress Racing however Dillon will join Kaulig Racing for this week’s event.
• Brandon Jones best career finish at Auto Club Speedway is 7th in 6 career starts. Jones joins the elite group at J.R. Motorsports for the 2023 season.
• The last two races at Auto Club Speedway have averaged 10 cautions. Prior to those events, Auto Club Speedway had produced 8 cautions or less in 11 straight races.

Handicapping Fontana

The real handicapping begins with this week’s races at Auto Club Speedway though we must remain cautious because it is the first traditional oval race of the season. For the Cup Series, we can look at last season’s performance trends at the horsepower tracks to find teams that seemingly performed better at the larger tracks in the Next Gen Car. After all, the Cup Series will return a very similar package in 2023 meaning that I don’t believe bettors should expect any difference in the racing product this season. For the Xfinity Series, teams and organizations have a lot more opportunity to change or modify those cars because of the rules differences. Therefore, trends that we may have witnessed last year are not guaranteed to carry over to the new year. While we could expect Joe Gibbs Racing and J.R. Motorsports to return as the top teams in the series, nothing is guaranteed especially at the start of the season.

If we are to remain cautious in our performance expectations at the team/organizational level, we can take full advantage of the fact that Auto Club Speedway is a drivers track. The two-mile surface has minimal grip, multiple lanes to choose from, and tire fall off which will favor the better driving talents in Saturday’s event. Last year, Cole Custer drove to victory lane with SS Green Light Racing which is an underfunded team under Bobby Dotter. The win was Dotter’s first as a team owner in 30 years of racing which proves just how valuable it is to have a guy like Cole Custer behind the wheel. Needless to say, we will take driver talent over equipment in every scenario this week and really exploit that narrative in terms of H2H match-ups.

Betting Targets

There are a lot of big names to choose from this week when determining the top “talents” to target from a betting standpoint. In fact, top talents may not even be the best way to describe what we are looking for this week. Instead, I would consider our focus to be towards the drivers that excel at the low-grip/high tire wear venues. Auto Club Speedway has a track surface that compares to places like Homestead, Chicagoland, or even the old Atlanta Motor Speedway. Racing on extremely old and worn surfaces, like those named above, requires a ton of car control to maintain lap times and limit tire fall off. When I think of the drivers’ competing this Saturday that fit that description, guys like Cole Custer, Austin Dillon, and Josh Berry standout as potential targets. Obviously, Custer’s track record at Auto Club Speedway has been phenomenal and he will be the overall favorite this Saturday. While other bettors will gravitate to other big names like Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, and even John Hunter Nemechek this week, I would lean towards Austin Dillon and Josh Berry being the sharper choice among the “favorites.”

Behind the top names is where I expect to take advantage of variance in H2H match-ups. Based on current betting odds, Austin Dillon, Sheldon Creed, and Ryan Sieg are my picks for H2H targets because their ceilings are much higher than betting odds would indicate. I have mentioned Dillon throughout this preview as a sharp play and yet Dillon is receiving generous 15-1 odds which is the same neighborhood as guys like Austin Hill and Brandon Jones. Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed is a driver that just had awful luck in 2022 but it was rarely due to a lack of speed. More importantly, Creed excelled at these low-grip venues which was evident in his near win at Darlington against Kyle Larson. I believe Creed has higher upside this week than the 30-1 odds suggest and can be backed with full confidence in H2H match-ups. Lastly, I’ve thrown Ryan Sieg’s name into this discussion simply because Sieg has always performed really well at Auto Club Speedway. As things currently stand, Anthony Alfredo and Brett Moffitt are the types of names within the same odds range as Sieg and that is enough to give some attention towards the #39 car in lower-tier match-ups.

Practice Notes

Update: Practice and qualifying was cancelled on Saturday. Rain is expected to continue throughout the afternoon. Therefore, there is nothing to add in terms of on-track observations prior to the green flag!

Draftkings Production Alliance Group 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Production Alliance Group 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Cole Custer +500 (1 unit)
Josh Berry +800 (1 unit)
Austin Dillon +1500 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Cole Custer -125 over Justin Allgaier (3 units)
Austin Dillon -110 over Austin Hill (2 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -115 over Ross Chastain (2 units)