2023 Pocono Mountains 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 22nd, 2023. 5:30PM (EST)
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: USA

The Xfinity Series will hold the 2nd leg of Saturday’s double-header at Pocono Raceway with the running of the Pocono Mountains 225. On Friday, Xfinity Series teams participated in practice and qualifying sessions in preparation for 225 miles of racing. At the end of the afternoon, Josh Berry earned just the 2nd pole of his career by posting a fast lap of 167.951mph in qualifying. Despite having a disappointing season to this point in the year, Berry should not be considered a qualifying wonder. Instead, Berry leads a group of drivers that deserve sharp betting consideration going into Saturday’s Pocono Mountains 225 at the Tricky Triangle!

One of the big storylines going into Saturday is that Chase Elliott will be behind the wheel of the #17 for Hendrick Motorsports. Elliott is among a group of Cup Series drivers that will be competing on Saturday which includes the likes of Daniel Suarez and Ty Dillon. Elliott obviously gets the nod as the most talented driver in the field and will likely be the overall favorite when the green flag waves. If Elliott is unsuccessful at capturing a win on Saturday, Pocono could provide an important points opportunity for guys like Josh Berry, Daniel Hemric (starting 2nd), Sam Mayer, Sheldon Creed, and others who are still searching for their first victory of the season to secure their playoff fate. For bettors, I’m not exactly sure if Friday’s on-track activities solidified any drivers as the overall favorite going into Saturday but perhaps that could be a good thing.

If you read my Truck Series preview, I broke down the different types of handicapping angles that I look for at a place like Pocono. In summary, it’s a pretty even mixture of equipment, horsepower, and driver talent. The best driver in the world cannot win at Pocono without the speed under the hood and a good handling race car. With that said, drivers can still make a ton of time, behind the wheel, at Pocono’s 2.5 mile layout that produces lap times in the 53 second bracket. As a result, we have to consider a little bit of everything before feeling confident towards betting selections.

Practice Observations

In Friday’s practice, Justin Allgaier edged out Cole Custer for the fastest lap of the session at 164.471mph. Allgaier has been fairly strong at Pocono in recent years. Despite not having a win at the Tricky Triangle, Allgaier has a 110.8 average performance rating at Pocono over the last 3 Xfinity Series races which is the best among the series. Meanwhile, Cole Custer is the only former winner in Saturday’s field. Custer went to victory lane at Pocono back in 2019 and is the only former Xfinity Series winner that is not in the Cup Series.

While both Allgaier and Custer’s fast laps in practice are not surprising, Austin Hill emerged as one of the most impressive cars on Friday. Hill is actually competing in both races at Pocono on Saturday and I have to assume that is because he enjoys the venue. Hill has been very strong in all of his former starts at Pocono and is probably one of the drivers that deserves H2H consideration. Meanwhile, guys like Chase Elliott, Josh Berry, and Allgaier all appeared to have speed worthy of contending upfront. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I thought drivers like Chandler Smith, Cole Custer, and Brandon Jones had less desirable results in practice. All of those drivers have shown success at Pocono in the past but failed to show the consistency in race trim to yield much confidence going into the weekend.

Betting Targets

Despite the poor season, I’m actually pretty high on Josh Berry’s chances of winning on Saturday. Berry has the driving style that is suitable for racing at Pocono which is critical upon hitting your lift points. In terms of betting value, Berry is still listed behind the likes of Nemechek, Elliott, Custer, and Allgaier with decent ROI upside. As a result, I think Berry is a must consideration for the outright win and perhaps could be a target in H2H formats as well.

Obviously, I think Chase Elliott’s talent will be tough to hide on Saturday. Remember these Xfinity Series cars favor guys with excellent car control and Elliott is among the best in that department. Therefore if anyone wants to back Elliott on Saturday, then it is a justifiable selection. However, I believe the best betting value will come in the form of H2H match-ups for the Pocono Mountains 225. Austin Hill and Corey Heim are the drivers that I have selected that should shatter their current projections. I mentioned Hill’s speed from practice and his strong resume of performance at the Tricky Triangle yet he is in a similar betting range of guys like Sheldon Creed and Daniel Hemric. Simply put, Hill has a good shot at beating everyone that he will be matched-up against in H2H formats.

For deeper H2H and potential fantasy options, I believe Corey Heim will be an excellent low-tier option for Saturday. Heim will be making a rare Xfinity Series appearance and one of his stronger tracks. Despite being in rather inferior equipment, Heim displayed plenty of speed in practice on Friday and appears to be trending towards overachieving expectations like we have seen from several of the Truck Series drivers recently. If you want even deeper H2H targets and potential fantasy plays, don’t overlook the likes of Ryan Sieg (H2H value) and Ty Dillon (fantasy value) as solid targets.

Draftkings Pocono Mountains 225 Optimal Lineup

2023 Pocono Mountains 225 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +350 (1 unit)
Josh Berry +600 (1 unit)
Austin Hill +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Elliott -110 over John Hunter Nemechek (3 units)
Austin Hill -130 over Chandler Smith (2 units)