2023 Pit Boss 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 19th, 2023. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FS1

Once again the Xfinity Series will closely follow the Truck Series in back to back races this week at Circuit of the Americas. Shortly following the XPEL 225, the Xfinity Series will have its turn at the challenging 3.4 mile and 20-turn road course located in Austin, Texas. So far this season, the Xfinity Series races have been difficult to predict due to the off-season attrition and multitude of young drivers in top-tier equipment. For Saturday’s return to COTA, the Pit Boss 250 will offer a new array of handicapping challenges as the likes of Aric Almirola, William Byron, AJ Allmendinger, and Ty Gibbs all step-down from their Cup Series’ roles to fine-tune their road course skills before Sunday’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix.

In the last two races at COTA, the outright betting favorites took the checkered flag in both races. Kyle Busch won the inaugural Xfinity Series debut at COTA back in 2021 at a mere 2-1 odds as a betting favorite. Last year, AJ Allmendinger replicated the feat by dominating the Pit Boss 250 at the exact same 2-1 odds. For Saturday’s Pit Boss 250, AJ Allmendinger (+200) and William Byron (+300) are the individuals getting the short odds. Allmendinger is the defending winner of the race and one of the best road course talents in the sport. Meanwhile, William Byron seems to be a threat any time he suits-up in Xfinity Series competition and has really improved as a road course threat in recent years. If the winning trend is going to continue from the heavy favorites, it will have to come from either Allmendinger or Byron this week.

Personally, I believe there are a number of potential challengers to the top two favorites of Allmendinger and Byron. Ty Gibbs is a phenomenal road course talent and a great pivot option among the favorites. Meanwhile, there are numerous drivers throughout the field that are betting road course talents than current betting odds suggest. Cole Custer has been strong in nearly everything he has driven at COTA over the last two years. Not to mention, I could make the case for several drivers that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests. As a result, I think bettors should seek refuge in betting value this week because it is something that we have not received from the Xfinity Series thus far this season!

Betting and Handicapping Strategy

Similar to my narrative in our Truck Series event today, I think our sharpest betting strategy will be putting the majority of our wagers on H2H match-ups this week. Road courses are notorious for playing into the strengths of a handicapper that understands each drivers’ road course skill set and I think that is where we will shine again this week. Specifically, we have some drivers that have shown excellent road course skills through other forms of racing which are getting simply disrespected from a betting standpoint. Therefore, we are going to identify these drivers with high potential that offer the most value in select H2H match-ups and lay down some higher confidence sized wagers by exploiting H2H mismatches.

Betting Targets

For the outright win, I do believe Ty Gibbs is a playable option despite your strategy this week. I believe Gibbs has the equal winning likelihood of Allmendinger and Byron. Yet, Gibbs is getting twice the betting value combined of both Allmendinger and Byron. Keep in mind, the history of heavy favorites have been consistent with the last two races at COTA. If we believe the favorites are the play this week, we simply have to give exposure to Gibbs for being the best value of the group. Personally, I think Allmendinger deserves to be the overall favorite. I just don’t have much value to gain at 2-1 odds unless I am putting Allmendinger in H2H match-ups at a better price.

For my H2H targets, I have reviewed this field carefully to find drivers that are being vastly under-appreciated for their road course skills. The drivers that are simply bubbling with value include the likes of Justin Allgaier, Sammy Smith, and Brett Moffitt. Allgaier has consistently performed well at the road courses throughout his career and has one of the best teams in the garage. Meanwhile, Sammy Smith is having a breakout season with the #18 team at Joe Gibbs Racing. Smith has shown several strong runs this season which was highlighted by his win at Phoenix. What others may not know is the fact that the rookie has shown some solid road course skills in a few ARCA performances earlier in his career. As a result, I think Smith provides sharp value in all betting formats.

For deeper H2H match-up or DFS gems, Brett Moffitt and Miguel Paludo are options that cannot be overlooked. Paludo will be competing in the #88 car for J.R Motorsports this weekend which means the part-time driver will be stepping into elite Xfinity Series equipment. Additionally Paludo has shown improvement in each of his 8 career part-time starts in the series and is coming back to Austin following one of the best finishes (9th) of his career in last year’s Pit Boss 250. For Brett Moffitt, the reason for throwing his name into the market for deep H2H value is the opposite of Paludo’s. While Paludo will be stepping into top-tier equipment, Moffitt continues to be limited by first year organization AM Racing. Fortunately, this position is nothing new for Moffitt in the Xfinity Series and he has routinely been able to overcome the equipment disadvantage at the road courses/shorter tracks. In both prior races at COTA, Moffitt was able to post finishes of 7th and 12th with two different inferior race teams. Therefore, I’m expecting this will be another opportunity for Moffitt to overcome the disadvantages around him and produce a finish with much higher upside than his 100-1 betting odds suggests.

Practice and Final Observations

Following Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions, I don’t think a single thing has changed from a betting perspective. The overall betting favorite in AJ Allmendinger proved that he was the driver to beat. Allmendinger posted the fastest lap in practice and then followed things up with a pole winning effort in qualifying. Behind Allmendinger, both Ty Gibbs and William Byron showed the type of elite speed potentially needed to win this event. Both Byron and Gibbs were the receiving favorite style odds before the weekend starts and it is safe to say that the top 3 drivers’ expectations have remained unchanged. In reality, I don’t think many things changed at all from practice observations. I will say that Cole Custer and Sheldon Creed appeared to be slightly better than myself or odds-makers expected. Both drivers showed really solid lap times though I would warn bettors that Creed often shows speed in practices but often fails to produce the finishes to show for it. Therefore, I’m not necessarily steering away from any of our pre-Friday expectations.

Draftkings Pit Boss 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 Pit Boss 250 Race Picks

*Final*

William Byron +450 (1 unit)
Ty Gibbs +550 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +2200 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -135 over Cole Custer (3 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -125 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Brett Moffitt -105 over Sage Karam (2 units)