2023 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 12th, 2023. 5:30PM (EST)
Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course
TV: USA

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will step into the spotlight at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course for the running of the Pennzoil 150. As many are aware, NASCAR’s road course races have grown significantly in popularity the last several years and Saturday’s Pennzoil 150 has the ingredients to be a spectacular event. The entry list is filled with big names from the Cup Series that will take advantage of the extra seat time in preparation for Sunday’s Verizon 200. Those big names include the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, and Ross Chastain. As we prepare for another road course event, let’s take the time to discuss prior road course performances this season and find the best betting targets for the Pennzoil 150!

The Xfinity Series has frequented the road courses this season more than any other touring series in NASCAR. In total, there have been 5 road course races already this season if you include the Chicago Street Course in that total. Interestingly, the Xfinity Series has produced 4 different winners through 5 road course races this season. Cole Custer is the only driver with multiple road course style victories this season thanks to wins at Portland and Chicago. Meanwhile, AJ Allmendinger (COTA) and Sam Mayer (Road America) have also scored wins already this season at road course venues. Obviously, Allmendinger is perhaps the most talented road course driver in the field. Allmendinger won earlier this year at Circuit of the Americas and he has won 4 of the last 8 road course races in the Xfinity Series as well.

If you consider the fact that Allmendinger also owns wins in both the Xfinity and Cup Series at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, it would be easy to see why he is the deserving favorite going into the weekend. However, we have learned that these road course events in the Xfinity Series are anything but a sure thing. In fact, I would argue that guys like Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, and Sam Mayer have proved they can win at nearly any road course venue. Not to mention, Ty Gibbs’ career was literally established on the road courses. As a result, we will have a lot to consider going into Saturday’s Pennzoil 150 with a very competitive field that should provide numerous betting opportunities and possibly valuable opportunities specifically in the realm of H2H match-ups.

Handicapping Indianapolis Road Course

From a handicapping perspective, we will not have the opportunity to observe practice and qualifying observations until early Saturday. I will update my thoughts following on-track activities on Saturday but if you want to get inside the handicapping think tank ahead of time; I will outline my handicapping thoughts for Indianapolis. For starters, this road course is a 2.439 mile circuit that combines part of the traditional Indianapolis oval along with the infield course. In many ways, this circuit is very similar to Charlotte’s ROVAL both in layout and design. Therefore if you want to look at prior races at comparable venues aside from Indianapolis, look no further than to see how drivers have performed at the ROVAL.

Betting Targets

I don’t really expect practice or qualifying observations to change my handicapping thoughts. I put minimal merit towards practice speeds when handicapping road course venues. Nevertheless, I will update everyone with final thoughts following sessions early Saturday so be sure to check back for final thoughts. For now, I think we can confidently call AJ Allmendinger the guy to beat despite the significantly talented field. If you look at Allmendinger’s history at Indianapolis and compare it to the ROVAL where he has won 4 straight races, it is easy to see that this layout favors Allmendinger’s style likely due to the heavy braking areas around the track. Therefore, I would not fault anyone for targeting the Dinger on Saturday despite the value, or lack thereof, in terms of betting odds.

Behind Allmendinger, I really like Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer as potential spoilers. I’m sure Ty Gibbs deserves some attention as well but I think Gibbs’ has not been as impressive in his part-time Xfinity Series starts this season. Instead, I like the Allgaier/Custer combination and lean towards Allgaier from a value standpoint. Deeper in the field is where I expect our H2H opportunities to arise, I have pegged several drivers that are much better road course talents than current betting odds suggest. Among the list of drivers that I believe is undervalued includes a group of names like Austin Hill, Parker Kligerman, Sage Karam, and Brett Moffitt. Hill and Kligerman actually have some of the best average running positions among all Xfinity Series regulars this season at the road courses. Meanwhile, Karam and Moffitt are excellent deep options that could produce value in betting and fantasy formats.

Practice Observations – Final Thoughts

Without much surprise, AJ Allmendinger proved to be the fastest man in Indianapolis leading up to today’s Pennzoil 150. Allmendinger posted the fastest lap in practice and backed it up with his 3rd straight pole at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. Needless to say, Allmendinger remains the clear favorite for the victory. Behind Allmendinger, perhaps is the bigger question mark. Ty Gibbs looked really solid in both sessions today and is likely a deserving 2nd ranked favorite. I also thought Sam Mayer showed excellent speed among the guys I would consider are dark horses.

Ultimately, I don’t think we “learned” anything from practice this morning. Unfortunately, Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer did not look quite as strong as I had hoped. Custer appeared to bounce back with a solid qualifying effort but Allgaier appears to be struggling a bit. Aside from Allmendinger and Gibbs, I don’t think there were many clear dark horses to consider. Obviously, that could change once the race begins and strategy comes into play. However, I just did not see anything on the stopwatch that screamed in favor of betting consideration. As a result, we are going to roll with the majority of our early picks and potentially look to add another H2H match-up!

2023 Pennzoil 150 Optimal Lineup

2023 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks

*Final*

Ty Gibbs +350 (1 unit)
Cole Custer +800 (.75 unit)
Justin Allgaier +800 (.75 unit)
Austin Hill +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Austin Hill -110 over Sheldon Creed (3 units)
Riley Herbst -110 over Chandler Smith (2 units)
Sam Mayer -110 over Sammy Smith (2 units)
Justin Allgaier +150 finishes Top 5 (2 units)
Brett Moffitt +350 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)