2023 Pala Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday February 26th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Auto Club Speedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will take center stage Sunday afternoon for the running of the Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway. Sunday’s return to Fontana will mark the ending of an era for Auto Club Speedway as track officials have announced that the track will be reconfigured into a half-mile short track following this weekend’s events. In fact, Auto Club Speedway has been completely removed from the Cup Series schedule in 2024 to allow for this historic transition to take place. As a result, Sunday’s Pala Casino 400 will be the last of its kind on the famous two-mile surface.

While I always enjoy short tracks, I have always enjoyed the racing that Auto Club Speedway produced. The track is one of the few rare 2-mile ovals in the sport along with Michigan International Speedway. The track has a ton of character with an old rugged surface that creates low-grip conditions and significant tire wear. Perhaps more importantly, there are numerous racing grooves that are equally fast which has produced fantastic racing throughout the years. While those track characteristics may be going away in the future, they will be in full force for this Sunday’s Pala Casino 400 which should be fun for bettors and spectators alike.

Historically, Auto Club Speedway has been one of those venues that has favored handicappers because you can usually count on the elite talents emerging at the front of the field. Even with the debut of the Next Gen Car in last year’s race, Kyle Larson, who is considered one of the most talented drivers in the sport, came away with his 2nd career victory in Fontana. Throughout last year, I consistently discussed how insignificant historical trends were with the transition to the Next Gen Car. However, Auto Club Speedway was among the few venues that seemed to still favor trends from the old car. While there are obviously nuances to that storyline, I will say that historical performance is worth keeping on the radar for this weekend’s selection process.

Auto Club Speedway – Cup Series Notes

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 4 wins at Auto Club Speedway and also has the best average finishing position (9.8).
• Former winners at Auto Club Speedway include Kyle Larson (2), Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr, and Alex Bowman.
• Last year’s race at Auto Club Speedway tied the record for number of cautions (12). The prior 3 races before 2022 produced 12 cautions combined.
• Erik Jones has the 2nd highest average finishing position (10.2) among active drivers including a career-best 3rd place finish last year
• Austin Dillon has finished in the top 10 in 3 of his last 4 starts at Auto Club Speedway including a career-best 2nd place finish last year.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 5 in 5 of his last 6 starts at Auto Club Speedway.
• Tyler Reddick led a race-high 90 laps in last year’s race in the Next Gen Car but cut a tire down late which resulted in a 24th place finish
• William Byron’s best finish at Auto Club Speedway is 15th in 4 career starts. (Statistically his worst track with more than 2 career starts)
• Christopher Bell has blown an engine in each of his prior two starts at Auto Club Speedway resulting in finishes of 36th and 38th.

Handicapping Strategy

While the Next Gen Car has arguably made things more difficult to predict on a week to week basis, I’m approaching Auto Club Speedway with optimism. The reason for my optimism is because Auto Club Speedway is a very gritty 2.0 mile speedway that is rugged and worn down. The size of the speedway produces fast speeds but cars will be “loose” throughout the afternoon and tires will wear out relatively fast. As a result, these conditions really favor those drivers with excellent car control and consistency which is also the reason we have seen a lot of the same drivers emerge at the front of the field at Auto Club Speedway, including last year’s debut in the Next Gen Car.

As a result, bettors can cling to the fact that our betting targets should have a handicapping edge this week. The one red flag that I will mention is that Auto Club Speedway is still a large 2-mile oval. Like any of the big ovals, track position and the potential for fuel mileage is never out of the question. However I believe if we get normal racing conditions and perhaps a little bit of luck, this should be a good track from a handicapping perspective. I also believe there is enough evidence to warrant targeting a few underdogs this week to elevate our potential ROI. While the majority of our bigger wagers will be focused on H2H match-ups, I do believe bettors should sprinkle in “win” bets due to favorable betting odds.

Practice Notes

Unfortunately, both practice and qualifying was canceled on Saturday meaning the first laps of on-track activity will take place when the green flag waves on Sunday. Personally, I already had the majority of my betting targets pegged going into the weekend however I was looking for practice observations to solidify those betting targets. Instead, we will roll with our handicapping strategy as discussed above with more acute focus on H2H match-ups since we are unable to add any confidence towards futures (win) for the Pala Casino 400.

Betting Targets

On the bigger ovals, Kyle Larson has arguably been the best driver in NASCAR over the last few years. Larson has won twice at Auto Club Speedway in the last 5 races and has also racked up 3 wins at Michigan which is similar in layout. I think it would be pretty foolish to ignore Larson’s chances for a repeat this weekend and he gets my nod as the #1 ranked driver from a handicapping perspective. Behind Larson, I believe Kyle Busch and Joey Logano are likely your best options since we are going into the weekend blind. Logano seems to crank out top 5 finishes every year in Fontana and is always a threat to win on any given weekend. Meanwhile, I am probably one of the few guys that believes Busch’s move to RCR will not negatively impact him. In fact, I would not be surprised if Busch has a return to prominence type season. Combine that speculative narrative with the fact Rowdy has always been awesome in Fontana and you can easily make the argument for backing the #8 team on Sunday.

Behind a few of the top names described above, I am heavily invested into the likes of Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, and Kevin Harvick in the form of H2H match-ups. Jones is one of my favorite dark horses of the weekend in all betting formats. Jones has always excelled at these low-grip/high-wear venues which is evident by his success at Darlington, including last year’s victory in the Next Gen Car. At Fontana, Jones has never tasted victory lane but has posted top 10 finishes in 3 of the last 4 years. Jones’ consistently overachieved in Fontana with inferior equipment with the old car and turned in a 3rd place finish in his debut with the Next Gen Car last season. Needless to say, I think Jones is one of the top pure talents at tracks with this type of asphalt composition. Dillon and Harvick are additional options that are showing higher ceilings than were current betting odds suggest for similar reasons.

Draftkings Pala Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Pala Casino 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +1000 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1200 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2000 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3000 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kyle Busch -110 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Austin Dillon -110 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Joey Logano -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +350 is top Toyota (1 unit)
Erik Jones +250 wins Group D (Bowman, Wallace, Suarez)(1 unit)
Austin Dillon +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)