2023 Pacific Office Automation 147 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 3rd, 2023. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Portland International Raceway
TV: FS1

Shortly after the Craftsman Truck Series concludes the running of the Toyota 200 at Gateway, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will step into the afternoon spotlight with the running of the Pacific Office Automation 147 at Portland International Raceway. Following a postponed and late race on Monday at Charlotte, Xfinity Series teams face a tough turnaround across the country for the 2nd road course race of the season and just the 2nd Xfinity Series race at Portland International Raceway!

Last year, AJ Allmendinger scored a victory in the inaugural Xfinity Series debut at Portland. Allmendinger also won earlier this year at Circuit of the Americas which was the first Xfinity Series race of the season on a road course. Not only will Allmendinger not be participating this week due to his Cup Series obligations at Gateway but I would also point out the fact that the Xfinity Series also lost Ty Gibbs to Cup Series competition this season. Allmendinger and Gibbs have combined for 8 of the last 9 wins at road courses in Xfinity Series competition with Kyle Larson being the only other driver to score a victory during that stretch.

I think it is important that bettors pay attention to the fact that the Xfinity Series no longer has the heavy hitters that we have been accustomed to in recent years. Even before Allmendinger and Gibbs’ dominant stretch, the Xfinity Series had premium road course talents like Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe which both had combined stretches of dominance. However, that is not the case this season going into this weekend’s race at Portland where there are not any Cup Series entries. GIven the fact that the Xfinity Series frequents road courses throughout the season, this will be an important race for potentially establishing the next driver that could step up as the driver to beat at road courses in Xfinity Series competition.

Handicapping Strategy

Personally, I think the amount of unknowns and lack of heavy hitters could benefit bettors on Saturday. Granted, odds-makers have taken a very conservative approach in terms of early betting odds with 9 drivers listed at less than 12-1 odds. However, I expect that number will spread after Saturday’s early practice and qualifying sessions. While we may not know the exact favorites yet barring speculation, I do notice a lot of disparity with current odds that could drive some early value in match-ups. I mean there are some questionable road course talents with limited experience getting favorite style betting odds and others that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. As a result, we may pull the trigger on some early H2H match-ups and see how practice/qualifying unfolds Saturday before finalizing line-ups.

Betting Targets

There are a lot of drivers getting short betting odds going into Saturday which is somewhat surprising. Myatt Snider finished 2nd in this race last year in the Portland debut and is listed as a mere 6-1 betting favorite. Personally, I think this is relatively absurd despite the fact JGR equipment has been phenomenal this season and this will be Snider’s best opportunity to date. However, many people fail to realize last year’s race was in the rain with slick conditions. On Saturday, there will be clear skies and relatively warm temperatures. When we consider Portland International Raceway has minimal heavy braking zones which tends to set apart the real road course talents. I think this race will be more finesse and speed as opposed to just a full showcase of the best road course drivers.

With that being said, I am looking for those drivers with a good mixture of everything working in their favor from seat time, to speed/momentum, and the road course pedigree to warrant betting consideration. With that formula in mind, I believe Sheldon Creed and Sammy Smith are among the guys that have sharp value in all formats. Creed is likely the best overall road course talent in Saturday’s field from a stock car perspective and I believe Smith is one of the talents that is going to surprise a lot of people on these layouts as well. Both drivers ran very well at COTA earlier this year which is one of the hardest road courses in America and have the speed to contend on Saturday.

Among other drivers that I will be closely watching for potential H2H value includes the likes of Austin Hill, Brett Moffitt, and Stefan Parsons. I throw Hill into the discussion because he could be a pivot against some of the overall favorites in H2H formats. I just wished Hill had more outright value for the win than the disgusting 6-1 odds based on last year’s 3rd place finish. Obviously, Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, and Justin Allgaier are among the others that could potentially hit a home run on Saturday. I just think Hill has an excellent shot to run much better than anyone would expect. Meanwhile, Brett Moffitt and Stefan Parsons are some deep H2H and fantasy options that I am confident will outrun current expectations.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Update: Practice and qualifying just concluded for the Pacific Office Automation 147. At the end of both sessions, our early pick Sheldon Creed appears to have emerged as the driver to beat. Creed posted the fastest 5 and 10 lap averages in practice and backed it up with a pole winning effort in qualifying. However, I would warn bettors that Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, and others were all within striking distance especially. During my preview above, I talked about the lack of heavy hitters for road courses in the field and there were numerous drivers within striking distance especially if they can get the track position in today’s race. So while I don’t believe much changed, I would just reiterate the fact that the top half of the field is very close.

In observing both sessions earlier, I do believe Cole Custer will be the biggest challenger to Sheldon Creed in straight-up race conditions. Custer had the speed and the consistency to contend. John Hunter Nemechek and Austin Hill were among a few others that I thought impressed as well. With that being said, I still believe the top half is extremely close and therefore we might not want to take too many match-ups among the top half of the field. Perhaps our H2H efforts will be better served deeper into the field where guys like Connor Mosack, Daniel Hemric, and even Ryan Sieg appeared to be better than I would have expected going into the weekend.

Draftkings Pacific Office Automation 147 Optimal Lineup

2023 Pacific Office Automation 147 Race Picks

*Final*

Sheldon Creed +600 (1 unit)
Sammy Smith +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Sammy Smith -110 over Parker Kligerman (3 units)
Cole Custer -140 over Austin Hill (2 units)
Chandler Smith -115 over Brandon Jones (2 units)