2023 O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 8th, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
TV: FOX

Following an off week, the Craftsman Truck Series will return to action on Saturday for the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. Unlike Xfinity and Cup Series teams that have frequently competed at the road courses this season, Saturday’s opening act will feature the 2nd and final road course event of the season for the Truck Series. Back in March, Zane Smith won the first road course event of the season at Circuit of the Americas and Smith was thought to be the favorite going into the weekend. However, Corey Heim emerged as one of the surprise contenders on Friday by winning the pole with a blistering lap of 94.371mph and will lead the field to the green flag on Saturday!

With both the Xfinity and Cup Series competing at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend, Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 will comprise all full-time and part-time Truck Series competitors. Most importantly, there will not be any Cup Series drivers vulturing for a checkered flag. Going into the weekend, I think most expected Zane Smith to be the clear favorite to beat. After all, Smith has won 2 of the last 3 road course races in the series and is the only two-time road course winner in the field. The only other driver in the field with a road course win on their resume is Ben Rhodes stemming from his victory at Daytona’s road course in 2021. Needless to say, there are not a lot of well-known road course talents (at this stage in their careers) in this field.

However, I would warn bettors that I’m not sure that means this will be a layup for the defending Truck Series Champion in Zane Smith. The #38 team has been struggling in recent weeks and have rarely displayed “winning” speed. Furthermore, Friday’s practices perhaps shed light into more potential surprises than a runaway victory amongst the favorites. There were a number of drivers within a close margin of the fastest speeds in Friday’s lone practice. In fact, I think there may be 6-7 potential drivers that are capable of winning this race on Saturday. Essentially, I believe long-run speed and consistency will be the main ingredients for success around this 2.258 mile layout.

Practice Observations

In Friday’s practice, Ben Rhodes paced the field with the fastest lap of the afternoon. Rhodes posted a fast lap of 92.618mph to edge out the likes of Carson Hocevar, Nick Sanchez, Corey Heim, and Christian Eckes in terms of single lap speed. All of the lap times within the top 4-5 drivers were within a tenth to a tenth and a half of each other. Therefore, I expect long-run speed will be the true difference maker on Saturday. In terms of consistency in practice, I thought Corey Heim appeared to have the slight edge. Heim appeared to get better with each lap which could be a dangerous sign from the guy that will be leading the field to the green flag.

Outside of Heim, Grant Enfinger and Christian Eckes were equally impressive, especially on the shorter run. Meanwhile, Ben Rhodes, Carson Hocevar, and Zane Smith appeared to be in striking distance. Again, I thought Smith was probably the least impressive of that group despite still posting fast times. Therefore, I’m just not convinced Smith’s speed is indicative of an outright favorite going into Saturday. Bigger surprise stories include solid practice performances from the likes of Tyler Ankrum and Marco Andretti. Andretti actually improved throughout the afternoon and qualified in the 7th position which is a pretty big accomplishment going into his series debut.

Betting Targets

As I have alluded to throughout this preview, I don’t feel like I have a strong grasp on who will be the driver to beat on Saturday. I could potentially see many different storylines unfolding. I am leaning towards Corey Heim because he appeared to get better throughout the afternoon. However, I also believe guys like Ben Rhodes, Carson Hocevar, and Christian Eckes are all going to be in the mix of things. Even if I am not big on Zane Smith this week, we know he is still capable as well. Therefore, this race will be a very conservative approach from a futures (win) standpoint.

For betting targets, Christian Eckes is likely my favorite H2H option on Saturday based on current odds. I believe Eckes has winning upside and will likely be in the top 5 all afternoon. Meanwhile, I also have my eye on potential targets like Grant Enfinger and Tyler Ankrum. It just depends on the type of match-ups we can find for those guys. Lastly, Stewart Friesen and Colby Howard are two fantasy targets to keep on the radar with high upside due to their troubles on Saturday. Both drivers will start from the rear of the field and should produce the fantasy value that cannot be avoided.

Draftkings O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 Optimal Lineup

2023 O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 Race Picks

*Final*

Carson Hocevar +450 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +900 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +1000 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Daniel Dye -140 over Austin Wayne Self (3 units)
Christian Eckes -130 over Nick Sanchez (2 units)
Ty Majeski +150 over Zane Smith (2 units)