2023 NOCO 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 16th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FOX

After two straight days of night racing, NASCAR’s Cup Series will take over the afternoon spotlight on Sunday with the running of the NOCO 400 at Martinsville Speedway. One of the biggest storylines of the weekend surrounds Chase Elliott’s return. After missing 6 races from a broken tibia, Elliott has been deemed eligible to return to Cup Series action. As a result the former Cup Series champion, and fan favorite, will make his first appearance in nearly two months. Undoubtedly, Elliott’s return is big for the sport. However, our focus will not be on the main Elliott storyline. Instead, our focus will be to find every bit of betting value that Sunday’s NOCO 400 can provide.

Unlike most tracks, having success at Martinsville is about 50% driver and 50% equipment/setup. Bettors will see undeniable trends of certain drivers that have excelled at the ½ mile paperclip but from an analytical perspective. Every driver has peaks and valley ranges in their performance over a longer sample size. That is because no matter how good the driver is at Martinsville, that driver needs a car that is going to handle very well. Ideally teams want a car/setup that will rotate smoothly throughout the corner and not burn up the rear tires. Unfortunately, it is very hard for teams to always nail the equipment side of the picture and that often leads to disparity from historical averages.

As a result, we are going to look at everything from how drivers have performed historically at Martinsville combined with those teams that have looked solid through Saturday’s on-track sessions in effort to eliminate the equipment/setup concerns. Next we will take the opportunity to highlight the drivers that are trending higher in that handicapping formula and explore our betting opportunities. For now, I would just reiterate that futures bets remain difficult in the Cup Series from a risk/reward perspective. I don’t think much of our betting value this week will be derived in the futures market. Instead, we are going to highlight the drivers to target and potentially fade in the H2H department. We have a few drivers that should be excellent betting targets!

Martinsville Historical Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career wins at Martinsville Speedway. Martin Truex Jr (3), Brad Keselowski (2), Kyle Busch (2), Joey Logano, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick, and Alex Bowman are all former winners as well.
• Martin Truex’s 3 wins have all come in the last 7 races. Denny Hamlin has not won at Martinsville since 2015.
• Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are tied for the best average finish (6.5) over the last 10 races at Martinsville.
• Ryan Blaney has finished inside the top 5 in 6 of his last 7 starts at Martinsville.
• William Byron is the defending winner of the NOCO 400 and has finished in the top 8 in 7 of his last 8 starts.
• Despite having a 11.8 average finishing position over his last 10 starts at Martinsville, Hamlin has run much stronger leading at least 100 laps in 3 of the last 4 races.
• Chase Elliott will return to Martinsville as the driver that has led the most laps (765) over the last 5 races at the ½ mile paperclip.
• Despite winning in 2021, Alex Bowman’s victory remains his only top 5 finish at Martinsville in 14 career starts.
• Despite looking really strong on Saturday, Daniel Suarez has two top 10 finishes in 12 career starts with a career best finish of 9th. Suarez’s average position at Martinsville is a relatively poor 22.5.

Loop Data for Martinsville

Aside from average finish positions which are noted above, I wanted to provide a snapshot of the last 5 races at Martinsville Speedway from a loop data perspective which provides a better look at a driver’s performance throughout an entire race rather than where they finish. As you will see below, Chase Elliott has the best overall performance rating (126.1) over the last 5 races despite failing to crack inside the top 10 in each of his last 3 starts. Elliott is a perfect example of drivers that have performed much better than they have finished. A couple of other drivers that meet that same criteria include last fall’s winner Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, and Aric Almirola. Almirola’s name may be one to keep in mind considering what we learned during practice and qualifying on Saturday!

*Loop data from last 5 races at Martinsville*

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	126.1	3.6	2.2	8.0	3.8	66	348	764	2404
Ryan Blaney	106.4	7.6	5.6	6.2	7.2	44	149	198	2404
William Byron	103.1	K	8.6	10.6	8.8	26	130	221	2343
Joey Logano	102.1	7.8	11.6	5.6	7.6	-16	66	34	2404
Denny Hamlin	100.4	9.0	7.2	14.4	9.8	104	232	624	2401
Kyle Larson	100.4	7.3	9.0	10.0	8.5	14	99	145	1904
Alex Bowman	96.4	12.8	7.3	13.3	10.0	17	115	10	1788
Martin Truex Jr	95.6	12.0	9.0	14.0	10.6	-4	152	158	2399
Christopher Bell	95.3	14.6	10.8	12.0	10.6	37	100	159	2403
Brad Keselowski	92.0	6.4	9.8	12.2	11.0	46	53	3	2289
Aric Almirola	85.1	18.2	10.4	11.4	12.0	-7	37	0	2403
Kyle Busch	84.9	11.4	12.6	11.6	14.0	18	29	5	2398
Kevin Harvick	79.7	7.6	16.6	13.8	14.0	-46	21	0	2404
Austin Dillon	78.0	17.0	14.4	17.4	16.2	-1	54	6	2218
Ross Chastain	73.0	19.8	20.8	13.5	18.0	2	46	0	1901
Bubba Wallace	69.1	23.8	18.4	17.4	17.2	5	29	23	2403
Chase Briscoe	68.1	17.0	19.5	17.0	17.3	-28	39	25	1895
Austin Cindric	65.4	21.5	19.0	19.0	19.0	2	8	0	900
Erik Jones	64.4	22.0	19.0	16.4	19.6	17	3	0	2305
Chris Buescher	62.7	16.8	22.2	20.0	20.6	-57	11	0	2047
Tyler Reddick	60.2	19.6	21.6	20.8	21.2	-30	16	0	2090
Harrison Burton	60.0	19.5	19.5	19.0	20.5	-3	4	0	900
Ryan Preece	57.2	21.7	31.7	30.3	27.7	-34	42	0	1295
Todd Gilliland	57.2	14.5	18.0	22.0	19.0	-18	5	0	899
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	56.8	21.6	20.6	20.8	21.6	-6	1	0	2398
Daniel Suarez	56.6	19.4	22.4	25.8	23.6	-39	67	0	2280
Corey LaJoie	50.8	25.8	23.4	27.4	24.2	-18	1	6	2268
Michael McDowell	48.2	17.2	25.4	25.6	25.2	-50	9	0	2283
Ty Dillon	47.7	30.3	25.7	23.7	26.7	-9	0	0	1367
AJ Allmendinger	46.9	28.5	29.0	24.0	27.0	9	10	0	899
Justin Haley	39.1	27.8	28.3	31.3	29.5	-1	2	0	1770
B.J. McLeod	30.9	33.3	34.5	32.3	33.8	-4	2	0	1331

Practice Observations

The winner on Saturday, following practice and qualifying, was easily the Stewart-Haas Racing drivers. All 4 of the Stewart-Haas Racing cars qualified in the top 10. In fact, Ryan Preece earned the first pole of his career with the fastest lap in qualifying at 94.780mph. Through watching lap times and the telemetry from the TV broadcast during qualifying, it simply appears the Stewart-Haas Racing cars were able to get back to the throttle better than anyone else. Which clearly points to a setup/equipment advantage going into Sunday’s NOCO 400. Harvick was easily the best of the SHR brigade in practice on Saturday if you look at just the empirical data.

However, Harvick was in the opening group (A) that practiced before group B. The opening group was considerably faster than Group B because of the rubber content on the track. If we look at lap times that were more consistent towards the end of practice (A) and throughout practice (B), it was pretty clear that Aric Almirola was among the best of the SHR cars in practice in truer race conditions. Beyond the SHR brigade, William Byron bested all drivers with the best lap averages in nearly every category. Byron was in group B which was part of the slower practice group which made his performance even more impressive. Byron has run really well at Martinsville over the last 4 races and perhaps deserves a “favorite” spot on Sunday. Other drivers that appeared to be really solid included guys like Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, and Tyler Reddick. Meanwhile, I would say the drivers that disappointed through Saturday’s sessions included names like Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, and Joey Logano.

Betting Targets

As we combine all of our handicapping angles that should hold credible weight, it appears that William Byron, Aric Almirola, and Bubba Wallace are the drivers that are hitting all the right indicators. Byron should be among the outright drivers to beat so we can find value in futures and H2H matchup options. Meanwhile, Almirola and Bubba Wallace are mid-tier to low-tier style drivers which should greatly outrun the current projections. Therefore, I believe Wallace and Almirola are excellent H2H options and could potentially yield prop bet potential as well.

Behind those names, I believe Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick are additional names that have shown “winning” speed thus far. I believe Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr are both within striking distance. If we get long green flag runs, Hamlin and Truex’s long run potential gives them better chances. Still, I just think predicting the winner this week is going to be the least effective ROI strategy. In the realm of H2H options and other drivers that could yield some ROI prop bet potential, I would say AJ Allmendinger and Ryan Preece definitely have some appeal. However, I believe Preece’s value was destroyed with his breakout qualifying effort. Instead, I would probably lean towards Corey LaJoie as a great betting option. LaJoie is a bottom-tier driver but should exceed expectations if he can stay out of trouble.

2023 Draftkings NOCO 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 NOCO 400 Race Picks

*Final*

William Byron +600 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1200 (.75 unit)
Martin Turex Jr +1200 (.75 unit)
Aric Almirola +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Aric Almirola -130 over Chris Buescher (3 units)
AJ Allmendinger -110 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -130 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
William Byron -185 over Christopher Bell (2 units)
Bubba Wallace +260 wins Group J (Keselowski, Buescher, Gibbs)(1 unit)