2023 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday May 26th, 2023. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

This weekend NASCAR returns home to Charlotte Motor Speedway to celebrate one of the biggest motorsports weekends of the season which will culminate on Sunday with the running of the Coca Cola 600. However, the first racing action of the weekend will take place late Friday when the Craftsman Truck Series goes under the lights for the running of the NC Education Lottery 200. For the first time in several weeks, there will not be any Cup Series drivers competing which means we should see an exciting battle from the Truck Series regulars and perhaps better betting opportunities!

Unlike the Xfinity and Cup Series, the Craftsman Truck Series has frequented the 1.5 mile venues this season. In fact, Friday’s running of the NC Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway will be the 4th race of the season on a 1.5 mile oval. Personally, I think that is an advantageous factor for bettors because we have had enough races on similar layouts to gauge expectations despite the matter of limited practices. For Friday’s Truck Series race, we will look back at performance on the 1.5 mile speedways this season to set our baseline of expectations and perhaps add some thoughts following Friday’s early practice and qualifying sessions.

From a handicapping standpoint, I really like using in-season performance trends at the 1.5 mile tracks especially in the Truck Series because drivers are nearly full throttle all the way around each lap. Therefore, those trucks with the best raw speed are usually going to keep running at the front of the field barring any misfortune. As a result, we must aggregate our performance data and find value in the drivers that have far outrun what current betting odds would suggest and then find the best disparate value in H2H match-ups to put together a sharp betting card. With that being said, let’s jump into the performance trends thus far in 2022 on the 1.5 mile surfaces.

Truck Series Loop Data – 1.5 Mile Speedways

There have been 3 races this season on 1.5 mile speedways stemming from events at Las Vegas, Texas, and Kansas. At Las Vegas, Kyle Busch dominated the race to score a victory over Zane Smith and Ben Rhodes in the Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200. At Texas, Nick Sanchez dominated the race by leading 168 or 172 laps. However, Sanchez and Smith got into each other battling for the lead on the final restart and Carson Hocevar escaped with his 1st victory of the season. Then most recently at Kansas, it was one of the more chaotic races of the season filled with attrition. In the end, Grant Enfinger emerged with a somewhat surprising victory over Corey Heim and Zane Smith.

From those races, we didn’t have any single driver that simply looked head and shoulders above the competition. Zane Smith was the most consistent front-runner in those events but he was far from outright better than anyone. In each of those races, there were several drivers capable of winning and I believe the same thing should be expected again on Friday. In the table below, I have compiled loop data statistics from all 3 races earlier this year at the tracks previously mentioned. While there was some attrition in those events which will have some impact to the results, I wanted to put together an aggregate view to evaluate performance results on the 1.5 mile speedways to this point in the year.

As you will see below, Zane Smith has unsurprisingly emerged with the top average rating among drivers with an impressive 115.0 rating. However, I was slightly surprised to see Corey Heim in the 2nd position with a 108.9 rating. Heim has been solid this season and has already scored a victory at Martinsville. However, he is not one of those drivers that usually comes to mind at the 1.5 mile tracks but perhaps he should. Behind those guys, you will see plenty of drivers that have shown winning speed at times this season in the likes of Grant Enfinger, Christian Eckes, Ben Rhodes, Nick Sanchez, and Ty Majeski. The problem with those guys is the consistency. Despite having somewhat of a down season, Rhodes has the best average running position (7.7) out of that group and potentially deserves more attention.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Zane Smith	115.0	10.7	10.0	6.3	5.0	33	39	14	440
Corey Heim	108.9	10.3	8.3	4.3	7.3	44	13	13	440
Grant Enfinger	103.8	13.7	8.0	9.0	8.7	44	34	68	439
Christian Eckes	103.7	6.3	6.0	17.0	9.3	14	26	8	384
Ben Rhodes	101.1	8.0	14.3	9.7	7.7	24	24	20	439
Nick Sanchez	97.2	3.0	10.0	17.3	10.3	-31	44	176	408
Ty Majeski	95.8	5.3	17.0	11.3	9.7	61	33	12	437
Chase Purdy	89.6	6.7	13.7	14.3	13.0	24	10	0	384
Stewart Friesen	89.6	14.3	13.0	7.0	12.0	-11	14	1	439
Carson Hocevar	84.0	11.0	14.0	13.0	13.0	43	6	20	384
Jake Garcia	80.8	9.0	12.3	7.7	13.3	-7	1	0	440
Matt Crafton	78.8	17.7	13.3	11.7	13.3	40	4	0	440
Taylor Gray	76.8	18.0	15.5	16.5	12.5	-12	2	0	300
Matt DiBenedetto	72.8	23.3	11.0	24.3	17.3	47	1	0	336
Dean Thompson	72.1	21.0	5.0	25.3	16.3	10	7	0	354
Rajah Caruth	71.0	17.3	14.3	27.3	18.3	19	3	0	363
Tanner Gray	69.2	11.7	13.3	19.3	14.3	-22	4	3	427
Tyler Ankrum	67.0	16.3	8.0	17.0	16.7	-29	0	0	431
Hailie Deegan	61.3	15.3	19.7	16.7	20.0	-22	0	0	365
Daniel Dye	56.6	16.7	27.0	19.0	22.3	-23	0	5	430
Colby Howard	54.5	22.0	23.0	24.3	21.0	-25	1	0	357
Lawless Alan	52.8	24.7	24.7	18.3	21.3	-10	1	0	435
Bret Holmes	49.1	15.3	25.0	23.7	24.3	-50	0	0	316
Kris Wright	46.1	25.3	24.3	22.7	25.3	-19	1	0	389
Brennan Poole	38.4	30.0	25.5	26.5	26.5	-30	0	0	153
Spencer Boyd	36.0	33.7	26.7	23.7	27.3	-11	0	0	429
Josh Reaume	32.8	30.3	32.0	26.7	30.3	-3	0	0	304

Betting Targets

One guy that is not mentioned in the upper echelon of guys, from our loop data, is former Texas winner Carson Hocevar who has produced a mediocre 84.0 average rating and 13.0 average running position at the 1.5 mile venues. Personally, I think these stats are reflective of Niece Motorsports struggles which have been shown in Ross Chastain’s results in the Truck Series this season. While I’m not sure if we can trust the speed of the #42 team to produce winning speed, it is worth noting that Hocevar has been really good at Charlotte. In fact, Charlotte has arguably been Hocevar’s best track at this point in his career. After a 3rd place finish in 2021, Hocevar led 57 laps before getting into a late race incident. Therefore Hocevar’s history at Charlotte provides enough support to target the #42 in all formats, especially in H2H match-ups.

In terms of the outright win, I think you can lock-in Zane Smith as the driver to beat before we even see practice or qualifying. Smith is the best in the Truck Series and it shows on a near weekly basis. For potential dark horses outside of the #42 mentioned above, I think Grant Enfinger and Corey Heim are excellent choices. Personally, I may wait until practices conclude early Friday before finalizing any potential dark horses. I think practices will be worth watching to potentially identify those drivers that have unloaded with advantageous raw speed. Therefore, be sure to check back for “Final Thoughts” which will be updated following practice observations. For now, I have jumped on a few early plays and will update the rest later on Friday.

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Practice and qualifying just concluded for tonight’s NC Education Lottery 200. Surprisingly, Tanner Gray emerged with the pole award which marks the first of his career. Ultimately, I don’t think we witnessed any significant changes from our expectations noted above. I would say that Zane Smith appeared to show less speed than we expected in practice and Ty Majeski was a bit faster than perhaps expected. Majeski and the #98 team rolled out a brand new truck for the first time this week and it did not disappoint in the speed department. Expect Majeski to be a contender later tonight!

Our early plays in Corey Heim and Carson Hocevar both looked really solid. I thought Hocevar ended practice very strong and I look for him to be better in race trim. Another driver that also deserves some attention is Christian Eckes. Eckes appeared to have really good speed after the first 1-2 laps and I’m expecting the #19 truck to run well this evening. There were also some others that struggled in practice including Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Stewart Friesen from lap time observations. Hopefully we get a variety of H2H match-ups tonight to find some additional value!

2023 Draftkings NC Education Lottery 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Zane Smith +550 (1 unit)
Corey Heim +600 (1 unit)
Carson Hocevar +1200 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Zane Smith -130 over Ty Majeski (3 units)
Jack Wood +160 over Rajah Caruth (2 units)
Grant Enfinger -105 over Nick Sanchez (2 units)