NASCAR Cup Series Driver Notes
*Notes reflect the start of the 2023 season*
As the calendar turns to 2023, I wanted to take the time to update our driver notes for the upcoming season in the Cup Series. As many are aware, each year I provide an brief overview of each driver mixed in with some thoughts and predictions for handicapping purposes. If you are new to NASCAR betting or just want a baseline for expectations for each driver, take a look as I run through the entire 2023 roster for NASCAR’s Cup Series drivers!
Alex Bowman #48: Officially entering 8th full-time season (drove for BK Racing 2014-2015) and 6th season with Hendrick Motorsports. Bowman will return from a 2022 campaign that was curtailed 5 races due to concussion effects stemming from a wreck at Texas Motor Speedway. Expected to be fully healthy going in 2023, Bowman is on the heels of a disappointing 2022 season. After winning a career-high 4 times in 2021, Bowman captured an early victory at Las Vegas last March but only captured 3 additional top 5 finishes throughout the remainder of the year. With parity increasing as a result of the Next Gen Car, Bowman appears to have taken a step back in the new equipment. Still, Bowman is a universal talent and perhaps one of the more underrated road course talents in NASCAR’s top division.
AJ Allmendinger #16: Allmendinger will make his full-time return to the Cup Series in 2023 with Kaulig Racing. After losing his long-time ride in 2018, Allmendinger revived his career in the Xfinity Series with 10 wins over the last two seasons with Kaulig Racing. Perhaps more importantly, Allmendinger proved he could still get it done at the Cup Series level with his 2nd career Cup Series victory at the Indianapolis G.P in 2021. In his prior Cup Series experience, Allmendinger was always battling an equipment disadvantage but has the talent/experience to perform in a more level playing field produced by the Next Gen Car. Allmendinger closed out the 2022 season with top 10 finishes in 6 of his last 8 starts. As a result, I think Allmendinger will be sneaky good in 2023. Look at the road courses, superspeedways, and Martinsville to be where Allmendinger is at his best!
Aric Almirola #10: Entering his 12th full-time season in the Cup Series, Aric Almirola returns to the no. 10 car with Stewart-Haas Racing for 2023 after considering retirement. Though nothing has been announced, many feel this will be Almirola’s final season in competition. Almirola is a 3-time Cup Series winner with victories at Daytona, Talladega, and New Hampshire. The majority of Almirola’s success has been produced at the superspeedway venues but he always performs better on the flatter surfaces where drivers must really be patient and roll the corners. Therefore, Almirola may be a valuable consideration at places like New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix.
Austin Cindric #2: Entering his 2nd season in the Cup Series, Cindric returns to Team Penske following a successful rookie campaign that produced a victory in the Daytona 500. Cindric ended his rookie season with 1 victory, 5 top 5 finishes, and 9 top 10 finishes including 1 pole. Cindric was really impressive on the superspeedways during his rookie campaign and is a notoriously strong road course talent which was proven with strong finishes at the Indianapolis G.P (2nd) and Sonoma (5th). With a full year of experience under his belt, Cindric is a guy that could easily take another step forward in 2023. He definitely has the talent to win at the superspeedways and road courses. Additionally, don’t rule out surprise potential at places like Phoenix and Pocono based on his Xfinity Series career.
Austin Dillon #3: Entering 10th full-time season in the Cup Series with Richard Childress Racing, Dillon finally got back to victory lane during the 2022 season with a clutch victory at Daytona to earn a playoff spot. Dillon is now a 4-time winner in the Cup Series with two victories coming at Daytona. However, I believe Dillon’s 2022 campaign was disappointing from a handicapping or evaluation perspective. In a year where many underdogs took advantage of the parity produced by the Next Gen Car, Dillon’s performance was still subpar at best. Dillon has been an above average talent at some of the most difficult venues in NASCAR at places like Darlington, Homestead, and Chicagoland. With that being said, Dillon’s does not appear to be benefitting from the Next Gen Car and that is perhaps a reflection of talent more so than anything.
Brad Keselowski #6: Entering his 14th full-time season in the Cup Series, Keselowski is coming off one of the worst seasons of his professional career after moving to Roush-Fenway Racing in a driver/owner style role. The former 2012 Cup Series Champion was winless for the first time in his career as a full-time driver and produced just a single top 5 finish on the season. Obviously, performance has been a huge issue at RFK Racing but there is reason to be optimistic going into 2023 with better technical alliances at RFK Racing. Still, I think bettors should have a “wait and see” approach to see if Keselowski can contend for victories on a more consistent basis. Until then, Keselowski remains a superior superspeedway talent with 6 career wins at Talladega.
Bubba Wallace #23: Entering his 6th full-time season in the Cup Series, Wallace had a breakout stretch through the 2nd half of the 2022 season which featured a win at Kansas to capture the 2nd win of his Cup Series career. During the 2022 season, Wallace was best on the intermediate ovals where it appeared that Toyotas excelled as an organization. Wallace has traditionally only been a threat at the superspeedway venues but that appears to be changing with Wallace at 23XI Racing. I am cautiously optimistic that Wallace will have the best season of his career in 2023, at least statistically. Whether or not that leads to more checkered flags, remains to be seen.
Chase Briscoe #14: Entering his 3rd season in the Cup Series, Briscoe captured his first career victory in the spring race at Phoenix last season. However, Briscoe did not have many bright spots following that performance at Phoenix as the Stewart-Haas Racing cars struggled as an organization. Personally, I still believe Briscoe is top talent in the sport but the performance must improve holistically to uphold that argument. In two seasons in the Cup Series, Briscoe has produced just 6 top 5 finishes. From a handicapping perspective, it’s really hard to pinpoint Briscoe’s strengths because the performance has been so inconsistent. With that being said, Briscoe has been best on the shorter layouts regardless of track type.
Chase Elliott #9: Entering 8th full-time season in the Cup Series, Chase Elliott proved that he is far beyond a talent just because of equipment. In the most competitive season in NASCAR history, Elliott led the way with 5 victories and won the regular season title. The former 2020 Cup Series Champion has fully established himself as one of NASCAR’s elite talents that can win on any surface. Elliott remains one of the best road course talents in NASCAR history but actually performed best on the short tracks in the Next Gen Car. Either way, Elliott remains a weekly threat no matter the venue.
Chris Buescher #17: Entering his 8th full-time season in the Cup Series, Chris Buescher should have opportunities to improve his career trajectory. Buescher captured his 2nd career victory in 2022 with a breakthrough win at Bristol and often outperformed teammate/owner Brad Keselowski. I have always thought Buescher was much better than the equipment he pilots and RFK Racing still needs to make a lot of improvement to get Buescher where he needs to be. However, Buescher is one of those drivers that has benefitted from the Next Gen Car. For now, Buescher usually offers some really good underdog H2H value any time the Cup Series visits a road course venue.
Christopher Bell #20: Entering his 4th full-time season in the Cup Series and 3rd with Joe Gibbs Racing, I would argue that Christopher Bell made one of the biggest steps forward out of any driver in the Cup Series garage last season. Bell caught fire during the 2nd half of the season with victories at New Hampshire, the ROVAL, and Martinsville. The wins at the ROVAL and Martinsville were the ultimate clutch victories to keep his championship hopes alive. While Bell fell short of the championship, the drive to earn a spot in the Championship 4 was impressive and perhaps an omen of things to come. I would classify Bell’s talent as “elite” on the short tracks and I expect he will be a better universal talent as he continues to gain experience.
Corey LaJoie #7: Entering his 7full-time season in the Cup Series, Corey LaJoie nearly got his first career victory at Atlanta but tangled with Chase Elliott on the last lap. Unfortunately, LaJoie did not show major improvements with the Next Gen Car like some of the other low budget teams. However, LaJoie was a more constant threat in the top 20 which is better than previous years. Unless anything changes, LaJoie’s biggest chance at quality performances will likely be at the superspeedways.
Daniel Suarez #99: Entering his 7th full-time season in the Cup Series, everyone’s favorite “Amigo” finally captured his first career win in 2022 with a victory at Sonoma. Similar to teammate Ross Chastain, Suarez also captured the best season of his career with TrackHouse Racing producing 6 top 5 finishes and 13 top 10 finishes. Without question, Suarez is a threat at the road courses especially under today’s circumstances with the Next Gen Car. However, don’t look past Suarez at the bigger tracks like Michigan and Pocono where he has always performed better than expected!
Denny Hamlin #11: Entering his 18th full-time season in the Cup Series, Denny Hamlin let another championship caliber season slip away. With 48 career victories, Hamlin is undoubtedly the best driver to never win a championship and continues to perform at a championship level. With that being said, I highly doubt we will see Hamlin post big win totals that we witnessed from 2019-2021 as the Next Gen Car simply does not provide those opportunities any longer. Still, Hamlin is an “elite” talent that can win at any track. I would pinpoint Hamlin’s skill set as being best at the low-grip surfaces (Darlington, Homestead, etc.) and shorter/flatter venues.
Erik Jones #43: Entering his 7th full-time season in the Cup Series, Erik Jones enters 2023 following a successful season that featured an impressive victory at Darlington. The victory was Jones’ 3rd win of his career and 2nd at Darlington Raceway. Needless to say, Jones’ has clearly produced his best performances and finishes at Darlington which makes him a solid underdog threat any time the Cup Series visits the Lady in Black. Jones has also always performed well at Bristol and Pocono from a historical perspective. I believe Jones is a driver that will benefit from the parity that the Next Gen Car provides and crew chief Dave Elenz has possibly done one of the best jobs out of any crew chief in the garage.
Harrison Burton #21: Following a rookie campaign that produced just one top 5 finish and two top 10 finishes, Harrison Burton returns to the #21 car with Wood Brothers Racing. Personally, I thought Burton’s transition to the Cup Series was premature and he definitely appeared to be under the bell curve compared to most rookies. The 2023 season will likely be more telling to Burton’s true talent compared to other Cup Series drivers. For now, Burton’s best opportunities at quality finishes will likely reside on the short tracks.
Joey Logano #22: Entering his 15th full-time season in the Cup Series, Joey Logano is now a two-time Cup Series champion following last year’s title run. Logano ended the 2022 campaign with 4 victories becoming just the 17th driver to win multiple championships at NASCAR’s highest level. I’m not surprised that Logano was among the drivers to compete for a championship with the Next Gen Car because he has always been one of the best universal talents across all layouts and track types. Logano’s position as one of NASCAR’s best is unlikely to change any time soon. Historically, Logano has scored 16 wins on NASCAR’s intermediate 1.5 mile style layouts but remains an exceptionally strong all-around talent especially at the superspeedways along with places like Phoenix and Richmond!
Justin Haley #31: Entering his 3rd full-time season and 2nd with Kaulig Racing, Justin Haley returns to the #31 car for the 2023 season. Personally, I thought Haley would benefit a great deal from the move to the Next Gen Car and while his stats did improve; he was never a serious threat for wins outside of his 3rd place finish at Darlington. Haley did capture a win at Daytona in the summer of 2019 thanks to a rain-shortened pit strategy. However, Haley is an exceptional superspeedway driver which has been evident by his success in the Xfinity Series.
Kevin Harvick #4: Entering his 23rd full-time season in the Cup Series, Kevin Harvick is coming off one of his worst (statistical) seasons of his career. Harvick salvaged the 2022 campaign with victories at Michigan and Richmond. However, Stewart-Haas Racing struggled mightily as an organization with the Next Gen Car. The former 2014 Cup Series Champion is entering the twilight years of his career and perhaps is trying to make one final run at a championship. Throughout his career, Harvick has been best at Phoenix where he owns the most wins (9) all-time among all NASCAR drivers. Harvick has also excelled on the flatter surfaces with low-grip conditions which is constantly found at places like Michigan, Richmond, and as mentioned before Phoenix!
Kyle Busch #8: Entering his 19th full-time season in the Cup Series, Kyle Busch will officially move on from Joe Gibbs Racing and join Richard Childress Racing in 2023 which will undoubtedly be a new era for one of NASCAR’s all-time best talents. Busch’s 2022 campaign was marred by bad luck, misfortune, equipment failures, and other forgettable moments. Busch did capture a victory on the dirt at Bristol and flashed stretches of championship worthy performances. However, Busch will now move to RCR to potentially conclude his illustrious career. The good news is that RCR captured multiple wins with Tyler Reddick in the Next Gen Car in 2022 and Busch remains one of the most talented drivers in the series. Busch has always been one of those drivers that can win at any venue but I am eager to see how consistent he can be at RCR. For now, we know that Busch is one of the best talents to ever pilot a car at places like Bristol and Richmond.
Kyle Larson #5: Entering his 9th full-time season in the Cup Series, Kyle Larson took a big step backwards following his 2021 championship season. After dominating the sport with 10 victories in his first season at Hendrick Motorsports, Larson regressed to just 3 victories in 2022 which included wins at Fontana, Watkins Glen, and Homestead. While those 3 wins may have felt like a setback, I would chalk that up to a product of the Next Gen Car. With all competitors on a more level playing field, it is just harder to dominate with the new car. Needless to say, I still believe Larson is among the top 2-3 drivers in the sport and he thrives at any venue where driver input makes the biggest differences from a lap time perspective!
Martin Truex Jr #19: Entering his 18th full-time season in the Cup Series, Martin Truex enters 2023 following a depressing season that did not produce a win for the first time in Truex’s career since the 2014 season. As many are aware, Truex strongly considered retirement but chose to come back for the 2023 season. As a result, many expect the 2023 season to be Truex’s farewell tour. While I have always liked Truex the driver, the Next Gen Car has not provided any benefit to Truex’s driving career and that was evident in the fact Truex produced just 4 top 5 finishes through the 2022 campaign. In the later stages of his career, Truex has been best on the road courses and short tracks. I think that will be the case again in 2023 but I’m not expecting any huge changes in terms of performance trends.
Michael McDowell #34: Entering his 10th full-time season in the Cup Series, Michael McDowell returns for his 6th season with Front Row Motorsports on the heels of his best professional season that produced two top 5 finishes and 12 top 10 finishes. Without question, McDowell and the Front Row Motorsports organization benefited from the move to the Next Gen Car as they are no longer at an extreme disadvantage as seen in previous years. McDowell was surprisingly strong at various track styles but historically he has been best at the superspeedways and low-grip venues.
Noah Gragson #42: Noah Gragson will graduate from the Xfinity Series and make his rookie debut in the Cup Series in 2023 with Petty GMS Motorsports. Gragson was the most dominant driver in the Xfinity Series during the 2022 season capturing 8 victories and a NASCAR record tying 4 straight wins during the 2nd half of the season. Gragson got a few starts in the Next Gen Car in a relief role for Alex Bowman last year and performed pretty well. While Gragson will have to deal with the growing pains of a new team, he has serious talent that will likely be displayed at the low-grip venues where the young driver thrives.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr #47: Entering his 11th full-time season in the Cup Series, Ricky Stenhouse Jr returns to JTG Daugherty Racing in 2023. Unlike most drivers on our list, Stenhouse’s performance during 2022 did not change much from previous seasons in a good nor bad way. In fact, Stenhouse nearly mirrored his 2021 stats producing a single top 5 finish and 5 top 10 finishes. Personally, I’m not sure if Stenhouse’s decline is equipment based with a low funded team in JTG Daugherty or if it’s more talent based. If you consider all of the other low budget teams that made improvements with the Next Gen Car, we may consider the latter as the more rational reason. In today’s environment, Stenhouse is no more than a superspeedway threat.
Ross Chastain #1: Entering 5th full-time season in the Cup Series, Ross Chastain enters 2023 as one of the most popular names in the sport. Chastain made a lot of noise last year with breakout wins at Circuit of the Americas and at Talladega. Chastain made even more noise throughout the year with constant run-ins with competitors and perhaps delivered NASCAR’s biggest highlight with the wall riding on the last lap at Martinsville to knock Denny Hamlin out of the playoffs. Either way, Chastain has proven to be a much better talent now that he is no longer at a huge equipment disadvantage. Chastain has proven serious road course skills and been fast on nearly every layout. If you had to buy stock in any NASCAR drivers, Chastain is one to own going into 2023!
Ryan Blaney #12: Entering his 8th full-time season in the Cup Series, Ryan Blaney will likely look back on the 2022 season as a disappointment. The #12 team was extremely fast during the beginning of the year and produced 12 top 5 finishes. However, Blaney never punched a ticket to victory lane following a 2021 campaign that produced 3 victories. With that being said, Blaney has become one of the best pure superspeedway talents in the sport and also thrives on the 1.5 mile layouts.
Ryan Preece #41: In the latest silly season move, Ryan Preece will return to the Cup Series in the #41 car for Stewart-Haas Racing. Preece previously competed 3 full-time seasons with JTG Daugherty with minimal success and competed in a few Truck and Xfinity Series races during 2022. Evidently, owner Tony Stewart really pushed for Preece to pilot the #41 car and now Preece will get one of the best opportunities of his career going into the 2023 season. I would be lying if I stated that I had a strong understanding of Preece’s skill set but perhaps we will know more as the season progresses.
Todd Gilliland #38: Entering his 2nd full-time season in the Cup Series, Todd Gilliland returns to Front Row Motorsports following a rookie campaign that produced just one top 5 finish (Indianapolis G.P) and another top 10 finish at Talladega. Personally, I never thought Gilliland deserved a Cup Series ride but that is not my call nor would I blame someone for accepting that opportunity. However, I don’t believe Gilliland is a true threat anywhere.
Ty Gibbs #54: In many ways, Ty Gibbs is the reason for so many huge moves this offseason. The rookie sensation took the Xfinity Series by storm in 2021 winning in his first career start at the Daytona road course and then backed it up with a 2022 campaign that featured 7 wins including an Xfinity Series Championship. Due to that success, Joe Gibbs Racing’s contract negotiations with Kyle Busch soured and now Ty Gibbs will get the opportunity to drive for his grandfather at just 20 years old. Gibbs also filled in for Kurt Busch throughout the 2nd half of the 2022 campaign in the Cup Series which means he will come in with some experience to this Next Gen Car. Personally, I am eager to see how Gibbs performs and I would assume he will be very good out of the gates at the road courses and shorter tracks.
Tyler Reddick #45: Entering his 4th full-time season in the Cup Series, Tyler Reddick will make the move over to 23XI Racing following the most successful season of his Cup Series career which produced 3 victories with Richard Childress Racing. If anyone recalls, I actually predicted Reddick would be the breakout driver of the 2023 season. I have always thought Reddick was the ultimate “wheelman” but rarely got a chance to showcase his talent with the prior package. With the Next Gen Car, Reddick shined, showing speed everywhere especially on the road courses which produced wins at the Indianapolis G.P and Road America. Going into 2023 in perhaps even better equipment, Reddick’s ceiling is sky high and he will definitely be a huge threat at places like Darlington and Homestead.
William Byron #24: Entering his 6th full-time season in the Cup Series, William Byron enters 2023 following his first multi-win season. Byron captured victories at Atlanta and Martinsville. The relatively young Cup Series driver has now captured 4 career wins with two of those coming on the superspeedways. While Byron continues to show improvement, the #24 team did struggle during the 2nd half of the season so it will be interesting to see how the 2023 campaign begins. To this point, Byron has been best at the superspeedways and on the concrete surfaces like Bristol, Dover, and Martinsville (partially).
