2023 Long John Silver’s 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday April 14th, 2023. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FS1

All 3 of NASCAR’s touring series will be competing this weekend at Martinsville Speedway for a full weekend of racing festivities. On Friday, the Craftsman Truck Series will kick off the weekend with the running of the Long John Silver’s 200. Truck Series teams will practice mid-afternoon on Friday which will immediately be followed by impound qualifying. Afterwards, the Xfinity Series teams will host practice and qualifying sessions before things are turned back over to the Truck Series to complete 200 laps of racing!

For Friday night’s race at Martinsville, Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain will return to Truck Series competition. Busch has competed twice already in the Craftsman Truck Series this season which resulted in a win at Las Vegas followed by a runner-up finish at COTA. As always, Busch will be the heavy favorite yet again on Friday when he attempts to make a run at his 64th series victory. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain will also be making his 3rd CTS start of the season. Chastain had a rough outing at Las Vegas earlier this season but managed a 5th place result at COTA after leading 10 laps early in that event. Niece Motorsports as a company has not been as strong at the bigger tracks which may have shown some bias in Chastain’s results. However, equipment is less of a factor at the ½ mile paperclip which means Chastain will likely be a threat when the green flag waves.

Obviously, there are plenty of other drivers in Friday’s field that are capable of pulling out upset style victories especially since track position is critically important during the final laps. Zane Smith, Grant Enfinger, and Matt Crafton (2) are all former winners at Martinsville. Smith dominated the 2021 race by leading 65 of 200 laps en route to victory. Smith also led 55 laps in last year’s event despite only having a 9th place result to show for his efforts. Needless to say, we must give all the former winners and some of the other Truck Series regulars consideration this weekend especially when determining potential H2H betting targets. Therefore, let’s jump into a few early expectations for Friday’s Long John Silver’s 200!

Truck Series – Martinsville Notes

• Kyle Busch has two wins and finished 3rd or better in each of the last 5 CTS starts at Martinsville. Busch has also posted a 100+ driver rating in each of his last 8 starts at Martinsville.
• Ben Rhodes has produced some of the best statistics among all Truck Series regulars the paperclip. Rhodes has finished in the top 5 in 4 of his last 6 starts and produced a 100+ rating in 6 of his last 7 races at Martinsville.
• Matt Crafton has a 7.8 average finishing position over his last 15 starts at Martinsville.
• Zane Smith has led at least 20 laps and posted a 100+ average rating in each of his 3 career starts at Martinsville.
• Ford drivers have won just once in the last 12 races at Martinsville
• Historically CTS races have a direct correlation with qualifying position. However, the race winner has started 8th or worse in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
• There have been at least 11 cautions in each of the last 4 CTS races at Martinsville.

Betting Outlook

As mentioned above, bettors will have a relatively tight window between the conclusion of qualifying and the start of the Long John Silver’s 200. Therefore, we may be waiting until very close to race time to finalize our betting plays. In these tight windows which often happen in the Truck Series, I try to get the majority of our betting lineups posted before qualifying. However, I will admit that practices at Martinsville are usually somewhat telling. While Martinsville is a driver’s racetrack, it is also very reliant upon a good handling car that will rotate throughout the corners. Therefore, I do believe practice observations hold some value but I will not be able to post those observations until late Friday afternoon. Prior to practices, our betting plays will be focused on betting value and H2H targets. However, there will likely be even sharper plays available following Friday’s on-track sessions.

Betting Targets

As things currently stand, Kyle Busch is a disgusting even money favorite. While Busch deserves the betting respect, I simply cannot justify even money bets at a place like Martinsville where a driver can easily lose track position and control of the race. As a result, I am forced to look for better opportunities behind Busch that produce some ROI friendly value. I mentioned earlier that Zane Smith has been very good at Martinsville through each of his 3 career starts and Ben Rhodes has really excelled in recent races at Martinsville as well. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain is not known as an excellent short-track talent. However, Chastain has consistently improved throughout his career at Martinsville in the Truck Series and posted a career best runner-up finish in his last CTS outing at Martinsville in 2019. I believe all of those drivers are excellent pivot options against Busch and Rhodes is one of my sharpest H2H targets among the 2nd-tier drivers.

Speaking of H2H options, I believe we need to be very sharp with our selections this week. If Busch manages to dominate this event and we are playing a pivot strategy, that means our H2H selections need to compensate. Along with Rhodes, I believe Matt Crafton is a strong H2H target. Crafton’s stock has fallen in recent years and I must admit that I hate betting on him because he mostly disappoints me. However, I do believe Crafton’s skill set is best suited for the short-flat layouts where long run speed holds a premium. As things stand before practice, I’m not making too many bold predictions as I would like to see on-track observations before I finalize my racing thoughts. However, I do believe the group of drivers that consists of Christian Eckes, Tanner Gray, and Hailie Deegan are those that I have penciled in that should run much better than current betting odds suggest.

Final Thoughts

Practice and qualifying just concluded for tonight’s Long John Silver’s 200 at Martinsville Speedway. Zane Smith won the pole in qualifying with a lap of 95.651mph and will have the opportunity to lead the field to green. Overall, I believe our early picks and predictions were really solid. Smith obviously looks like Kyle Busch’s biggest challenger tonight. Ty Majeski had an excellent practice and led all drivers in 5 and 10 lap averages though I believe Majeski benefited from track conditions to a degree. Ross Chastain and Ben Rhodes were not quite as strong as I expected on the lap charts however I still believe both drivers will race well.

From a totality standpoint, I don’t think we necessarily learned of any “new” betting targets. However, I did make notable mention of a few drivers that appeared to be well off the pace that we expected going into the weekend. Among those names included the likes Stewart Friesen and Carson Hocevar. For transparency, Friesen has never excelled at Martinsville and has produced just 1 top 5 finish in 9 career starts. Hocevar has shown the ability to run upfront at Martinsville but has failed to finish in the top 10 in either of his 3 career starts. Obviously practice speeds and racing at Martinsville are two different things but I both drivers really struggled on the stopwatch. Therefore, both drivers may be among our “fade” options going into tonight’s race.

2023 Long John Silver’s 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Zane Smith +600 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1000 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ben Rhodes -115 over Grant Enfinger (3 units)
Christian Eckes -125 over Corey Heim (3 units)