2023 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 9th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: NBC
While both the Craftsman Truck Series and the Cup Series are already in the midst of the playoffs, the Xfinity Series will close out their version of the regular season on Saturday with the running of the Kansas Lottery 300 at Kansas Speedway. As things currently stand, just 1 point separates Riley Herbst and Parker Kligerman who will battle for 300 miles for the final playoff position. For the rest of the competition, Kansas Speedway will provide an important performance assessment at an intermediate (1.5 mile) speedway which will compose 3 of the next 5 races in the playoffs!
Interestingly, the Xfinity Series has only visited two 1.5 mile speedways this season when you exclude Atlanta Motor Speedway which races like a superspeedway. The two appearances at 1.5 mile speedways is less than both the Truck and Cup Series. In fact, the last time the Xfinity Series competed at one of the intermediate venues was back in May at Charlotte. If you happened to read my Kansas Lottery 200 preview for the Truck Series, I mentioned that I often rely on in-season performance metrics for handicapping the 1.5 mile tracks during the latter part of the season because they are so similar to each other. Needless to say, we do not have a ton of performance metrics at the 1.5 mile venues to build a strong trend line because there simply has not been enough races at similar layouts.
Earlier this year, Austin Hill and Justin Allgaier scored victories at Las Vegas and Charlotte which are the two races that I alluded to at previous 1.5 mile venues. In looking at those two races combined, Hill, Allgaier, and John Hunter Nemechek were easily the class of the competition which has been the case for the majority of the season. Allgaier actually finished in the runner-up position at Las Vegas which gives him an impressive 1.5 average at the two 1.5 mile venues. With that being said, I would still point to the fact that it has been several months since the Xfinity Series has competed at a track like Kansas and that means plenty of time for teams to have gained/lost speed going into Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300.
Handicapping Note
Personally, I don’t have a really good feel about this race from a handicapping perspective due to the time distance between the last 1.5 mile venue and the infrequency of these types of races on the Xfinity Series schedule. Therefore, I’m expecting to take a cautious approach to this race and potentially use this as a learning event for the upcoming races at the 1.5 mile tracks over the next few weeks. With that being said, everything is dependent upon betting odds and closer to race time when H2H match-ups are offered. If we can find some significant mismatches in the form of H2H match-ups, we still may have a decent size betting card. However, I would plan for this to be a conservative betting event if that does not happen.
Betting Targets
When I look through the past couple of races at Kansas Speedway, it appears the top talents finished at the top in every event. While most 1.5 mile speedways are very speed dependent, Kansas Speedway has multiple grooves and drivers can manhandle the car through the corners. With those things in mind, I would have to consider John Hunter Nemechek the overall justified favorite going into Saturday before practice. I would probably have Justin Allgaier and then a coin toss between Austin Hill/Cole Custer as my next best options. However, I am sure that a Sam Mayer or dark horse will emerge from sessions on Saturday with a really fast car that perhaps elevates them into contention status. For now, I am not stepping out on many long limbs.
I am more confident towards identifying potential dark horses in the realm of H2H match-ups that may bring the most betting value to our lineups on a per dollar basis. Riley Herbst has been really solid at all the speed tracks this year and has finished 6th or better at the last 4 traditional ovals. An even sharper H2H target this week includes Jeb Burton in the #27 car for Jordan Anderson Racing. I don’t think many people realize how well this young team has run in recent weeks and Burton is typically listed against bottom-tier talents in H2H match-ups. Despite that fact, Burton has finished inside the top dozen in 6 of the last 8 races and continues to fly under the radar. Other potential H2H targets at different betting odds ranges that I will be watching in practice include guys like Cole Custer, Sammy Smith, Derek Kraus, and Parker Retzlaff.
Practice Notes – Final Thoughts
Update: Practice and qualifying has concluded at Kansas Speedway with Justin Allgaier earning the pole with a fast lap of 176.206mph. Allgaier appeared to be fast in practice and happy with his car which we sort of expected based on prior performances at Las Vegas and Charlotte this year. Behind Allgaier, it becomes more of a guessing game. Josh Berry, Cole Custer, and Sammy Smith all displayed strong speed in practices. However, lap times were really inconsistent across the board and I believe that is because the track was changing (heating up) throughout practice.
I will say that Austin Hill and Chandler Smith did not look nearly as good as we would expect. Both cars seemed to be down on speed. I am confident that Hill will make the most of the situation but Chandler Smith could be worthy of fade consideration. Also, I would not pay too much attention to qualifying results because the cars that went late were at a disadvantage based on the track temperature. As a result, don’t rule out the chances of guys like John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer from competing for the win this afternoon.
2023 Kansas Lottery 200 Race Picks
*Final*
Justin Allgaier +350 (1 unit)
Cole Custer +500 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Sammy Smith -140 over Chandler Smith (2 units)
Austin Hill -125 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Riley Herbst +115 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Jeb Burton +145 over Ryan Sieg (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
