2023 Kansas Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday September 8th, 2023. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: FS1

This Friday night the Craftsman Truck Series will return to racing with the running of the Kansas Lottery 200 at Kansas Speedway. Through the opening two races of the Truck Series playoffs, Grant Enfinger and Ty Majeski are among the drivers that have already advanced due to their wins at Milwaukee and Lucas Oil IRP. Meanwhile, there are 6 other drivers that are looking to keep their championship hopes alive. As things currently stand, Ben Rhodes and Matt DiBenedetto are the drivers on the outside of the cutoff line who need to make up ground to keep their championship hopes alive!

While I love the playoff drama, our betting focus surrounds the fact that the Truck Series is returning to one of the cookie-cutter 1.5 mile venues. Interestingly, the Truck Series has not competed at a 1.5 mile venue since back in May at Charlotte. In that race, Ben Rhodes was able to capture his lone victory of the season and the #99 team desperately needs to bring some similar speed again this week as they are currently 3 points outside of the cutoff. For bettors, the 1.5 mile venues are all about the speed factor in the Truck Series. The majority of these drivers are nearly wide open, on the throttle, every lap. Obviously, drivers still have to hold a steady wheel but speed is typically made by the setup/equipment that teams bring to the track.

For these reasons and more, I like to pay close attention to in-season performance trends at this juncture in the season. While it has been a few months since the Truck Series last competed at a 1.5 mile venue and teams could have obviously made improvements in the speed department, we can still rely on performance metrics to establish a solid handicapping foundation to help set expectations for Friday’s 200 mile race under the lights. We will utilize these performance metrics combined with some track history trends to try and identify advantageous betting value. Therefore, let’s not waste any more time and jump right to the analytics.

Truck Series Loop Data

As we look at the loop data from the 4 previous races this season at 1.5 mile venues which include Las Vegas, Texas, Kansas, and Charlotte, notice that Corey Heim stands on top of the performance metrics by a decent margin. Typically, Heim is not someone that we consider a huge threat at the 1.5 mile tracks. Heim’s only victories this season have come at the shortest track on circuit at Martinsville and on the road course at Mid-Ohio. However, Heim has shown some terrific in-season performance metrics at the 1.5 mile venues which includes an impressive 3.8 average finishing position.

Behind Heim, Ben Rhodes clocks in at the #2 position which is slightly surprising considering the veteran is having a down year. Behind Rhodes, you have more of the usual suspects in the likes of Zane Smith, Christian Eckes, and Grant Enfinger. Enfinger won the Heart of America 200 at Kansas back in May in dominating fashion. Enfinger led 65 of 134 laps and had a 5 second margin of victory when the checkered flag waved. As a result, Enfinger has to get some increased love this week especially with our performance metrics supporting the narrative.

If we look deeper into the field, Nick Sanchez and Chase Purdy are the guys that clearly stand out among the less popular names. Sanchez has flashed incredible speed at the 1.5 mile tracks especially with his performance at Texas. However, the rookie has been slightly inconsistent as well. Meanwhile, Purdy is a driver that may not be living up to the Kyle Busch Motorsports expectations but has put together several quality runs in recent weeks. As a result, I believe both Sanchez and Purdy are among the guys that are worthy of H2H consideration going into the weekend if we can find them in advantageous match-ups.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Corey Heim	115.4	8.5	6.5	3.8	6.0	54	23	62	574
Ben Rhodes	106.8	10.8	12.5	7.5	7.5	32	30	57	573
Zane Smith	104.6	11.5	8.8	10.5	7.0	49	41	14	574
Christian Eckes	102.2	6.3	8.3	14.3	9.0	7	26	8	518
Grant Enfinger	100.7	13.0	10.3	8.0	9.8	56	34	68	573
Ty Majeski	96.7	4.5	15.5	10.3	9.8	77	33	12	571
Carson Hocevar	96.0	11.3	11.0	10.8	10.5	53	54	63	518
Nick Sanchez	94.4	10.8	9.5	15.3	12.5	2	51	176	542
Stewart Friesen	86.7	12.0	11.3	10.8	11.8	-16	15	1	573
Chase Purdy	84.6	8.3	12.8	14.8	13.5	12	11	2	518
Taylor Gray	84.5	17.7	11.3	14.3	11.0	-10	2	0	434
Dean Thompson	83.1	17.5	4.8	19.8	13.3	22	14	0	488
Matt Crafton	77.6	19.3	13.5	11.8	13.8	47	4	0	574
Jake Garcia	77.1	10.5	14.3	9.5	15.0	-11	1	0	574
Matt DiBenedetto	76.5	22.5	11.3	20.3	16.0	55	2	0	470
Rajah Caruth	74.3	14.0	18.0	23.3	17.3	41	7	0	497
Tanner Gray	69.4	9.0	17.8	21.3	14.5	-45	5	6	560
Tyler Ankrum	61.8	21.0	11.8	19.8	18.5	-6	1	0	563
Hailie Deegan	57.5	16.8	20.0	20.8	20.8	-27	0	0	493
Colby Howard	56.6	22.0	21.8	23.3	20.8	-28	2	0	491
Daniel Dye	56.5	17.0	25.8	19.0	22.3	-40	0	5	564
Lawless Alan	56.2	22.5	23.3	18.0	20.5	-20	3	0	569
Bret Holmes	49.8	18.0	25.5	23.0	24.5	-61	0	0	450
Kris Wright	44.3	24.8	24.5	25.0	25.5	-23	1	0	519
Matt Mills	36.2	30.3	28.7	29.0	28.3	-28	0	0	394
Spencer Boyd	34.7	31.5	27.5	25.5	28.5	-18	0	0	560
Josh Reaume	33.4	29.5	32.5	27.3	30.8	-3	0	0	435

Betting Targets

Despite having superb in-season performance metrics at the 1.5 mile tracks, being the defending winner at Kansas, and winning 3 of the last 7 races, Grant Enfinger is receiving very generous betting odds compared to the other top names. Enfinger is currently listed as the 6th betting favorite behind the likes of Carson Hocevar, Corey Heim, Ty Majeski, Zane Smith, and Christian Eckes. Personally, I believe Enfinger may be the best value on the board when you consider the other options. Heim definitely deserves a lot of consideration as well. Meanwhile, I don’t believe guys like Hocevar, Smith, Majeski, and Eckes have shown enough consistent speed at the 1.5 mile venues to produce high confidence.

If we are going to take some shots at potential dark horses, Ben Rhodes and Nick Sanchez are the only guys that deserve consideration based on prior speed and performance. I really like Ben Rhodes’ current betting odds which are just south of 20-1. Despite the fact the #99 team has not performed to expectations this season for the former champion, they have still been very competitive on the 1.5 mile layouts. Outside of futures (win) picks, I also believe Chase Purdy and Dean Thompson are the drivers that are trending in all the right directions. I mentioned Purdy above in our loop data metrics and believe he is capable of continuing their improving trajectory. Meanwhile, Thompson has been on a similar trajectory and had his best performance of the season back at Charlotte. Consider both drivers relatively sharp H2H targets going into Friday!

2023 Kansas Lottery 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Kansas Lottery 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Corey Heim +425 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +700 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Grant Enfinger -115 over Christian Eckes (2 units)
Ben Rhodes +250 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)