2023 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 10th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: NBC

Last week, Kyle Larson kicked off the playoffs with his first victory at Darlington Raceway to secure his advancement to the Round of 12. However, several big names suffered disappointing results including the top two drivers from the regular season in Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin. Needless to say, the pressure will heat up again on Sunday when the Cup Series returns to Kansas Speedway for the running of the Hollywood Casino 400. For those that remember, Kansas produced one of the most exciting finishes of the season earlier this year when Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson tangled on the last lap. Therefore we are hoping for some excitement and better results with our bets this week!

For the 2nd straight week, Christopher Bell earned the Busch Light Pole Award. Bell posted a fast lap of 180.276mph to edge out Kyle Larson for the fastest time. Bell was among the drivers that failed to produce a strong result last week and suffered a 23rd place result. However if there is anything that we learned last week it was the fact that the Toyotas have shown great speed despite a few disappointing results. In Saturday’s lone practice, the Toyotas were fast once again with Bell, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr, Bubba Wallace, and Denny Hamlin all being among the fastest guys in lap averages. While we know raw speed is extremely important at the 1.5 mile speedways which appear to favor the Toyotas, we also cannot overlook the driver factor which will come into play on Sunday.

For those unfamiliar with Kansas Speedway, it is one of the common 1.5 mile speedways on the NASCAR schedule. Unlike some of the other 1.5 mile tracks, it has progressive banking which welcomes drivers to run multiple grooves. Often we have seen the fastest groove transition from the bottom of the track towards the top of the wall as the race progresses. It is very difficult to get a car comfortable in all grooves of the track and that is where the driver input will play a role on Sunday. In the Next Gen Car, drivers are nearly wide open which means the guys that make the fastest times will be those that can keep their foot in the throttle and can keep the car under control through the turns. As a result, we will be looking for a little bit of everything with our selections this weekend in the realm of speed, recent performance, and driver talent!

Kansas Speedway – Track History

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Kansas Speedway. Hamlin is also the most recent winner at Kansas.
• Kevin Harvick (3), Joey Logano (3), Kyle Busch (2), Martin Truex Jr (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Bubba Wallace are all former winners at Kansas.
• Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are tied for the best average finishing position (7.1) over the last 10 races at Kansas.
• Kyle Larson has finished 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 2nd in his last 4 starts at Kansas.
• Martin Truex Jr has finished in the top 9 positions in his last 8 starts at Kansas.
• Ross Chastain has finished 7th or better in each of his last 3 starts at Kansas.
• Toyota drivers have won 4 of the last 5 races at Kansas Speedway.
• There have been at least 7 cautions in each of the last 5 races at Kansas Speedway.

Dynamic Averages

If you look at our dynamic averages which reflect the last 5 races at 1.5 mile layouts, you will notice that Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Larson have outperformed the competition by a relatively wide margin. Both Larson and Truex have produced 113 driver ratings over the last 5 races at intermediate layouts which is very impressive. Behind that specific dynamic duo, I was also very surprised to see Bubba Wallace rated so high in the 3rd overall position. Wallace is the defending winner of the Hollywood Casino 400 which came as a surprise in this race one year ago. However, Wallace has not won in 2023 and honestly has not shown winning speed much at all this year. With that being said, Wallace seems to have a knack for getting around Kansas and has produced quality results in most of his recent starts.

If we look deeper into our dynamic averages, I was also surprised to see Ryan Blaney rated so high despite the fact that Team Penske’s performance has been somewhat lacking during the 2nd half of the season. Then again the Cup Series has not visited a true 1.5 mile speedway in several weeks. I would also give notable mentions to the likes of Ross Chastain and Ricky Stenhouse Jr who have performed better than their typical baselines. On the other side of the performance spectrum, I would be a fool to not acknowledge the rather poor results from some of the bigger names like Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick who have all produced sub 80 ratings.

Betting Targets

Based on all the handicapping angles that I believe are important going into Sunday’s 2nd race in the playoffs, I’m about as “big” on Kyle Larson as one can be in this new era of Next Gen racing. Granted, we rarely see the days where a driver is so dominant that the rest of the competition does not have a chance and I’m sure there are x-factors that could come into play on Sunday with track position. Since we cannot handicap those x-factors, Larson is checking all the boxes that I like to see and I think that team feels like they let one slip away back at Kansas earlier this year. Larson is my pick to get the job done and likely lead a lot of laps on Sunday.

If Larson falters or does not have the speed that I expect, Denny Hamlin should be one of the top guys once again. However, I have no appetite to take more than one heavy favorite. Instead, I would much rather seek betting value with drivers that should have enough speed to be within striking distance. I believe those guys surround the likes of Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, and perhaps Ross Chastain. Chastain may be the better H2H option as I expect he will get better as the race progresses. However, Reddick and Wallace have been flashing winning speed in recent weeks and I really like their momentum going into Kansas. For H2H specific options, I like Brad Keselowski especially in match-ups against other Ford drivers. I don’t expect the Fords to be as strong on Sunday but I still like how the RFK guys are trending. I also believe Erik Jones and Carson Hocevar may provide some deep H2H/fantasy value as well.

2023 Draftkings Hollywood Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +475 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +800 (.75 unit)
Bubba wallace +1400 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Brad Keselowski -125 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Kyle Larson -130 over William Byron (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -115 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -115 over Ryan Preece (2 units)
Carson Hocevar +1200 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)