2023 Grant Park 220 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 2nd, 2023. 5:30PM (EST)
Where: Chicago Street Course
TV: NBC

In a transcendent move for the sport, NASCAR will host the first-ever Cup Series street course race on Sunday in downtown Chicago with the running of the Grant Park 220. The Chicago Street Course was once a virtual concept on Iracing but that concept was brought to reality this weekend with the creation of a street circuit which has literally brought racing to the streets of downtown Chicago. Earlier today, we witnessed Cup Series teams get the opportunity to practice and qualify for Sunday’s Grant Park 220. Additionally, we also got the first look at how the racing will look on the Chicago Street Course courtesy of Saturday’s inaugural Xfinity Series race. Therefore, let’s dive into what bettors and fans should expect on Sunday for this historic event!

Earlier today, Denny Hamlin won the pole for Sunday’s Grant Park 220 with a lap of 89.557mph. Hamlin appeared to be the best driver in both practice and qualifying on Saturday. However, there were a lot of drivers within striking distance and we would imagine speeds will continue to increase as drivers get accustomed with the circuit. One of the drivers that also stood out on Saturday included newcomer Shane Van Gisbergen. I say “newcomer” because this will be Van Gisbergen’s first Cup Series start on Sunday but those in the racing world knows that Van Gisbergen is anything but a newcomer. Van Gisbergen is a 34 year old from New Zealand with an impressive driving pedigree that stems from open wheel, supercars, and more.

Van Gisbergen actually posted the fastest lap in practice on Saturday with a lap of 89.419mph and had the pole position until both Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick nudged him on their last lap during the final round of qualifying. Needless to say, the New Zealand standout has quickly become one of the surprise stories of the weekend driving the #91 for TrackHouse Racing. However, Van Gisbergen is not the only driver that has impressed thus far this weekend. Jenson Button, the former Formula One veteran who made his first NASCAR start at COTA earlier this year, also showed plenty of speed and made the final round of qualifying. Therefore we will have a lot of betting considerations on Sunday and not just from the regular Cup Series competitors.

Chicago Street Course

In Saturday’s Xfinity Series preview, I highlighted the layout of the Chicago Street Course and I think it is worth discussing again so that bettors and fans know what to expect on Sunday. For starters, the street course circuit is a 2.140 mile and 12-turn layout. The majority of the racing will take place on S. Columbus Drive, S. Lake Shore Dr., and on S. Michigan Avenue of downtown Chicago. There are also short segments of the circuit that run north on E. Balbo Drive, south on E. Roosevelt Rd, and north again on E. Jackson Drive. The majority of the circuit is composed of abrupt 90-degree right and left-hand turns. However, there is an “inner-loop” shaped section of the track from turns 8-10 which will be important to some of the key areas of “speed” around the circuit.

The main thing that everyone should know about the Chicago Street Course is like most street circuits the racing groove is extremely narrow. In practice on Saturday, we saw both Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick clip the inside wall while trying to flare their cars out for sharper entrances into the corner. There is simply not a lot of room and there are not a lot of passing zones. Therefore, track position will be extremely important and strategy may be equally important towards gaining that track position. Bettors should not expect a lot of passing in this event especially the further you get towards the front of the field. Therefore, starting positions do have a premium and should be considered in the grand scheme of things.

Road Course Loop Data

For this event, I wanted to bring in our dynamic averages for the road courses which show how the Cup Series drivers have competed over the last 5 races at road course venues. While Sunday’s venue is not considered a “road course,” the style of racing is very similar. In our loop data rankings, Tyler Reddick remains in the top spot which he has held throughout the season. Reddick’s road course streak had been somehow forgotten after a disappointing effort at Sonoma. However, Sonoma is a road course that is mostly filled with s-shaped turns and less heavy braking zones compared to most road courses. At another street circuit that has minimal grip and heavier braking zones throughout the entire course, Reddick’s insane talent for this type of racing should not be forgotten.

Behind Reddick, Chase Elliott has perhaps the most prestigious road course resume in the Cup Series. However, Elliott has just one win in the Next Gen Car at the road courses as well. In recent races, I have been more impressed with guys like AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell, Christopher Bell, and Chris Buescher who have really benefited from the Next Gen Car to produce quality results at the venues with this style of racing. Therefore, keep those drivers on your radar going into Sunday’s Grant Park 220 and lastly don’t overlook the dismal results from guys like Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and the road course talent of Austin Cindric who have all struggled significant in recently road course style races.

Practice Observations

The significance of practice speeds varies from venue to venue. However, I do believe that Saturday’s practice times are important. It highlights the drivers that have done their homework on this layout, the cars that have outright speed, and those drivers/teams that have adapted to this unique layout. With that being said, Denny Hamlin was the best overall driver in practice on Friday as I mentioned earlier. Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr appeared to be among the best in practice as well. Both drivers had excellent lap times despite rather disappointing qualifying efforts.

I also thought Christopher Bell, Michael McDowell, and Tyler Reddick were all really solid from a consistency standpoint. I thought all 3 of those guys were within striking distance in terms of overall speed. Meanwhile guys like Van Gisbergen, Button, and Ty Gibbs all showed strong fast lap times but I was a bit concerned with their consistency. Further back in the field, I thought the likes of Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric were among the most disappointing drivers on the speed charts based on opening betting odds.

Betting Targets

While I understand why Tyler Reddick is the overall betting favorite, I must say that I like the winning probability of Hamlin going into Sunday’s event at 2nd favorite betting odds. Hamlin was the fastest car/driver on Saturday and got the pole which will be huge for the track position battle. I’m expecting minimal passing among the leaders tomorrow and Hamlin has the potential to go wire to wire under the right circumstances. Therefore, I believe he should be the outright favorite in all betting formats. Behind the clear top two guys, I really like the speed and driving ability of Christopher Bell as a mild dark-horse in this event. Bell is another one of the guys that qualified well on Saturday and has shown all the road course performance metrics to warrant betting consideration. I personally think Bell has more value in H2H formats but I will concede that his odds also justify a play for the outright victory.

Behind the names listed above, I think the mid-half of the field is going to be stacked with talent and fast race cars. Van Gisbergen, Martin Truex, Kyle Larson, Jensen Burton, and Michael McDowell are all drivers with top 5 upside. I believe the Cup Series veterans’ seat time will likely prevail over the course of 220 miles on Sunday. Perhaps, McDowell has the biggest upside based on current betting odds. McDowell has been close in a few road course races already this season and I believe he will be strong on Sunday so his odds yield value in all formats.

Deeper into the field, Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick offer some fantasy appeal due to their issues in qualifying. However, I believe the likes of Todd Gilliand and Corey LaJoie offer some bottom-tier betting opportunities. Both drivers have shown excellent speed this weekend despite being weekly bottom dwellers in the Cup Series. Gilliand has shown exceeding expectations in all the road course events and LaJoie has the qualifying effort/starting position to likely beat all lower-tier match-ups. Therefore, I mention both Lajoie and Gilland as drivers that could yield both fantasy and betting value!

2023 Draftkings Grant Park 220 Optimal Lineup

2023 Grant Park 220 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +600 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1000 (.75 units)
Kyle Larson +1200 (.75 unit)
Michael McDowell +1800 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Kyle Larson -110 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Michael McDowell +300 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Starting position of race winner under 4.5 +145 (1 unit)
Any driver (+500) to win both stage 1 and stage 2 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick to be Top Toyota, Michael McDowell to be Top Ford, and AJ Allmendinger to be Top Chevrolet +6600 (.25 unit)