2023 Goodyear 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 13th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s throwback weekend will conclude on Mother’s Day with the running of the Goodyear 400 at the infamous Darlington Raceway. So far this weekend, Darlington has produced some great racing and we should expect nothing less going into Sunday’s main event. Unfortunately, luck has not been on our side thus far this weekend. Some of our H2H targets have been caught up in wrecks, blown tires, and everything you can imagine. However, the track notoriously known as “Too Tough to Tame” remains a premium venue for handicappers and I’m hoping for a strong close to the weekend!

Earlier today, Martin Truex Jr won the Busch Pole in somewhat surprising fashion with a lap of 169.409mph. I say somewhat surprising not because of Truex’s speed nor talent but simply based on the fact Truex qualified in group B. If you have not followed practices and qualifying lately, drivers have been separated into two groups for both practice and qualifying sessions. The first group (A) has shown the advantage in qualifying especially at the higher track wear venues because they traditionally get more time to let their tires cool while Group B practices. However, Truex spoiled the show as the last car on the track by edging Bubba Wallace for his first pole in 22 career starts at Darlington.

Predicting Cup Series races have become increasingly difficult with the Next Gen Car and the razor thin margin of disparity. More times than not these Cup Series races are a battle for track position. However, The Lady in Black will challenge that narrative. While track position will always be important, the grip level at Darlington is minimal and the track’s aged surface eats tires like no other venue in the sport. Therefore, this track heavily favors the drivers with the best car control in low-grip conditions and those drivers that excel on the long-runs. Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr are among some of the top names that have the ideal skill set for this type of racing. If you can find the drivers that have that refined skill set, Darlington is traditionally a solid handicapping venue where the talent of the driver usually outperforms the equipment/track position narrative that we see week to week.

Handicapping Strategy

Throughout the weekend, I have preached a handicapping strategy that favors driving talent over other angles like practice speeds, starting position, or recent momentum. I am a firm believer that you never make bets (H2H match-ups) against superior drivers because the cream of pure racing talent rises to the top at Darlington. Though we have had some bad luck this weekend, I still believe that is the most reliable formula to a successful betting card at Darlington. Therefore, we will put heavy emphasis on exposing lines and match-ups where drivers are notably better wheelmen than their opposition.

Darlington – Cup Series Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 wins at Darlington. Kevin Harvick (3), Martin Truex Jr (2), Erik Jones (2), Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch are also former winners.
• Denny Hamlin has a lucrative career average finishing position of 7.5 in 21 career starts.
• Kevin Harvick has finished 6th or better in 8 of the last 9 races at Darlington
• Kyle Larson has finished runner-up in 3 of his last 5 starts at Darlington
• Tyler Reddick finished 2nd and 3rd in both Darlington races last year
• Christopher Bell finished 5th and 6th in both Darlington races last year
• Michael McDowell finished 6th and 7th in both Darlington races last year
• Ross Chastain has finished 15th or worse in 6 of 7 career starts at Darlington
• Ryan Blaney has just 1 top 10 finish in 12 career starts at Darlington

Low Grip Trends

I purposely put a few stats in the section above to highlight drivers that excelled in both of last year’s Darlington races because I find that trend important considering it was the first two Darlington races in the Next Gen Car. If you were to look back at historical trends, most trends are biased towards the top teams at the time and do not reflect the parity provoked by the Next Gen Car. Personally, I took it one step further and have analyzed all of the races at the low-grip/high wear speedways which include places like Fontana and Homestead among others.

In my analysis, Kyle Larson stood out as the driver that has excelled at these types of venues in the Next Gen Car. Larson won at both Fontana and Homestead. Larson had bad luck in last year’s Darlington races including a blown engine in the spring but I would still claim that he has been the most consistent front-runner at similar style tracks from a surface composition comparison. Other names that have consistently run upfront in those races include Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Erik Jones. Therefore, I think these names have established strong pedigrees with the new car at these low-grip venues.

Practice Observations

Practice observations were really tough to decipher because of the two group dilemma. I know the split practices have been ongoing throughout the season but Darlington’s surface can create very biased results at face value. For example, Chase Elliott posted the fastest lap of either practice with a speed of 168.232mph. Elliott was in the opening group and had the advantage of a clean track. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch led Group B with the fastest lap which was nearly 6 tenths of a second off of Elliott’s pace. Despite Busch being the fastest in Group B, he was only 12th fastest overall. Therefore, we must break down practice observations on a group by group basis because the track conditions were so different.

In the opening group of drivers, I thought Chase Elliott and William Byron were the best two of the bunch. Elliott and Byron displayed really strong race speed especially in the early portion of the run. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain were among the drivers that appeared to excel on the longer run. In Group B, I thought that Ryan Blaney had some of the best overall speed with Martin Truex Jr in close proximity. Truex definitely had better long-run speed which has become somewhat of a trademark for his driving style. I also thought Larson, Kyle Busch, and Christopher Bell were all solid as well from a holistic standpoint. Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano were some of the top names that appeared to be “off” in terms of lap times.

Betting Targets

In looking at this race from all perceivable angles, William Byron and Kyle Larson appear to be the top two threats going into Sunday. I think Martin Truex Jr deserves to be in that category as well. Truex will be starting with track position from the pole and seemingly gets better as these types of races progress. For that reason, Truex is a top-tier option for Sunday as well. Byron and Larson have been fast everywhere this season and I don’t expect that to change. Both drivers have been really good at Darlington in a short time frame despite neither driver getting a victory from the Lady in Black. However, that could easily change on Sunday.

I’m expecting guys like Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Chase Elliott to move forward from their starting spots. I think each one of those drivers deserves some fantasy variance but Hamlin is the only one that I think has a real shot to get a victory. If you want some potential dark horses for the outright win, I think teammates Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick are very capable of having great afternoons. Reddick is a top talent at low-grip venues and Bubba Wallace is looking better on a near weekly basis. I really like the H2H match-up upside for both Wallace and Reddick. However, they both have some long shot appear in futures formats as well.

Deeper H2H options that may yield the most value include the likes of Michael McDowell and Christopher Bell. I mentioned both Bell and McDowell earlier for their success in both of last year’s events. I think the Toyotas with Joe Gibbs Racing have found some added speed in recent weeks and that should boost Bell’s ceiling. The reason I have both drivers in the sharp H2H category is because neither driver displayed anything overly impressive on Saturday and posted mediocre qualifying efforts based on their expectations. However, I think both drivers are excellent choices in match-ups because they should beat the majority of drivers in their odds range! Lastly, I was not going to mention Erik Jones as a H2H target because he was overvalued going into the weekend. Jones has actually been battling an illness this weekend and had a rough Saturday in practice/qualifying. However, Jones has slid down to 50-1 odds and that may be a bit of an overreaction. As a result, Jones is sliding back in H2H option window.

2023 Draftkings Goodyear 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 Goodyear 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +750 (1 unit)
William Byron +900 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1200 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2800 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

William Byron -130 over Tyler Reddick (3 units)
Justin Haley +110 over Noah Gragson (2 units)
Austin Dillon -115 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Michael McDowell +600 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Any driver to win stage 1 & 2 +700 (.5 unit)