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2023 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

2023 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday August 20th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: NBC

For the 2nd week in a row, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go road course racing. Last week, Michael McDowell delivered one of the most popular underdog victories of the season by capturing the checkered flag at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. This week the Cup Series returns to one of the traditional road course venues at Watkins Glen International for the Go Bowling at the Glen. Just like last week’s race, Sunday’s return to Watkins Glen will be an important chapter in the battle to make the playoffs as just two races remain in the regular season!

Among the major storylines is the playoff drama surrounding Chase Elliott who is in a must-win situation at either Watkins Glen or next week’s stop at Daytona. Elliott posted one of his best performances of the season last week at Indianapolis by running 2nd to Michael McDowell which has raised expectations for Sunday’s return to the Glen. As many are aware, Elliott’s first career win came at Watkins Glen in 2018. Elliott backed up that win with another victory at the Glen in 2019 and has posted strong finishes of 2nd and 4th in the two races since those victories. In many ways, Watkins Glen has been Elliott’s best track and this Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen may be the best opportunity for NASCAR’s most popular driver to earn his way into the playoffs.

However as we have seen through the Cup Series throughout the year and throughout the era of the Next Gen Car, these races are increasingly difficult to win. In recent weeks, the underdogs have been hitting in big ways with Chris Buescher scoring two straight victories followed by McDowell’s breakthrough victory. From a betting standpoint, we must be mindful of the other potential betting options in Sunday’s field because we have already witnessed some uncommon names towards the top of the speed charts including Corey LaJoie who made it to the following round of qualifying on Saturday. Therefore, let’s jump into our handicapping and expectations for another round at road course racing!

Watkins Glen – Fast Facts

  • Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch lead all active drivers with 2 career victories at Watkins Glen.
  • Elliott (2018-2019) and Larson (2021-2022) have won the last 4 races at Watkins Glen.
  • Martin Truesx Jr, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and AJ Allmendinger are all former winners at the Glen.
  • Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick have finished in the top 10 in both career starts at the Glen.
  • Elliott has the best average finishing position (5.7) among active drivers.
  • Truex has finished 3rd or better in 4 of the last 5 races at the Glen.
  • Hamlin (pole sitter) has finished top 5 in 4 of the last 6 races at the Glen.
  • Alex Bowman’s best career finish at Watkins Glen is 14th. Bowman needs a win to make the playoffs.
  • Bubba Wallace’s best career finish is 23rd at Watkins Glen in 4 career starts.
  • There have been 5 cautions or less in each of the last 5 races at Watkins Glen.

Road Course Dynamic Averages

Similar to last week’s handicapping formula at Indianapolis, I believe bettors should give considerable credibility to our road course dynamic averages which reflects the last 5 races at road courses this season. Last week, I made note of names like Michael McDowell, Chase Elliott, and Christopher Bell who have been competing much better than the public realizes at the road courses. Needless to say, it was not very surprising to see several of those guys fighting for the win all afternoon. For this week, I believe a similar handicapping strategy is necessary as we should be adhering to these performance metrics. The only difference is that we should also give some credibility to track history as well. Watkins Glen has some very unique portions of the road course with heavy braking areas and some drivers just typically do better at these areas of the track seemingly every race. Therefore, don’t completely forget the track history narrative along with our dynamic averages this week.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On Saturday, Denny Hamlin won the pole for the Go Bowling at the Glen with a fast lap of 125.172mph. Despite not being known as a superb road course talent, Hamlin does have a prior win at Watkins Glen and Saturday’s pole was the 2nd of his career at the Glen. Behind Hamlin there were a lot of known road course talents like Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Larson, AJ Allmendinger, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Kyle Busch who all qualified in the top 10 positions.

Before qualifying, it had appeared that AJ Allmendinger might make a run at the pole. Allmendinger was the fastest car in practice in both single lap and multi-lap metrics. The Dinger’s first career win came at Watkins Glen back in 2014 and we know he is one of the premier road course talents in the field. Behind Allmendinger, I personally thought William Byron and Larson were the most consistent front-runners on the stopwatch. Larson has obviously become the man to beat at Watkins Glen in recent years and it appears that he will be tough again this weekend.

There were a lot of top names that were very close to the top of the speed charts on Saturday. It would probably be easier to name the drivers that did not impress on Saturday. Among those names included top road course talents like Martin Truex Jr and Chase Elliott who simply did not have the speed that many expected going into the weekend. Meanwhile, guys like Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, and Aric Almirola were among the names that I thought were even worse than opening betting odds would have suggested for their expectations. All 3 of those names were pretty bad at Indianapolis last week so it appears those teams are missing something at the road courses as things currently stand.

Betting Targets

If we go by the handicapping indicators, Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, and Christopher Bell should be among our top targets this weekend. However, I’m just not confident enough in Elliott at his current betting odds. Meanwhile, guys like Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have shown terrific speed thus far this weekend and are perhaps much better candidates. Somehow Larson’s streak at Watkins Glen has been lost in all the storylines this weekend but he may be one of the best in the field going into Sunday. Hamlin does not have some of the handicapping indicators that screams towards a possible win, however Hamlin has a history of hit or miss at the road courses. Following a pole run on Saturday and speed in practice, Hamlin is a guy that looks like he will contend.

Back in the field, we will continue to look for optimal H2H opportunities for betting purposes. I really like Christopher Bell in H2H match-ups more so than his chances of winning outright. Meanwhile, Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones are a pair of guys that have shown really strong trends both in the track history and in our dynamic average handicapping metrics. After a subpar afternoon on Saturday, Jones is currently listed as a bottom-tier driver which could be useful for H2H and fantasy racing purposes. Additionally, Corey LaJoie and Bubba Wallace are a few drivers that over–achieved in Saturday’s sessions. I’m still very hesitant of both drivers putting together a complete race this weekend but perhaps Wallace deserves some consideration for mid-range match-up purposes due to the points’ urgency.

2023 Go Bowling at the Glen Optimal Lineup

2023 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +650 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +800 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1400 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Joey Logano -115 over Ross Chastain (3 units)
Christopher Bell +115 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Austin Dillon -130 over Erik Jones (2 units)