2023 GEICO 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 23rd, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega SuperSpeedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will visit the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday for the running of the GEICO 500. Following a relatively terrible race at Martinsville which was dominated by track position and just 7 lead changes, NASCAR’s Cup Series will attempt to revitalize the competition factor by visiting one of the biggest wild-cards on the schedule at Talladega which has produced a minimum of 35 lead changes in each of the last 8 events. For bettors, the return to volatile superspeedway racing will present some of the best odds of the season and we hope to hit a lottery style winner on Sunday!

On Saturday, Cup Series’ teams competed for the Busch Pole despite not having any on-track time for practice this weekend. Obviously, practices are not necessarily important for superspeedway racing but I just wanted to point out that there were no practice sessions for the weekend. At the end of qualifying, Denny Hamlin emerged from the field with the fastest lap of the afternoon at 180.751mph. The pole winning lap was Hamlin’s 1st of the season and his 1st pole at Talladega Superspeedway where he is a two-time winner. Hamlin was accompanied by JGR teammates Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, and Martin Truex who all flexed their speed on Saturday by qualifying in the top 7 positions.

One observation that is worth noting from qualifying is the fact only one Chevrolet team qualified in the top 10 and that was last week’s winner Kyle Larson. The Chevrolet teams did not appear to be fast in single car qualifying but we have seen throughout the season (and historically) that qualifying holds minimal weight towards race speed. In fact, I would argue that race speed is mostly pretty equal across the field. Sure there will be cars that draft better, handle better, or potentially have a slight end in speed. However, the key to superspeedway racing is avoiding the mistakes and putting yourself in position for the win in the closing laps. Obviously, this style of racing is not tailored to handicappers but betting odds help support the volatility with a potential appetizing reward.

Talladega Historical Notes

• Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with 6 wins at Talladega. Joey Logano (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Chase Elliott (2), Ryan Blaney (2), Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, Ross Chastain, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr are all former winners as well.
• Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (14.2) among active drivers with more than 2 career starts.
• Ryan Blaney’s 96.1 average rating is the best among active drivers over the last 6 races at Talladega. Blaney has also led the most laps (138) in that same time period.
• Erik Jones has produced an impressive 9.2 average finishing position over the last 6 races at Talladega.
• Ross Chastain finished 1st and 4th in last year’s Talladega races which was the best among all drivers.
• Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Larson have career +20 average finishing positions at Talladega which is among the personal worst for each driver.
• Ford drivers have won 10 of the last 15 races at Talladega
• There have been single digit cautions in 9 of the last 10 races at Talladega with no more than 7 cautions in each of the last 4 races.

Superspeedway Dynamic Averages

When we try to determine potential betting targets, it’s always a good idea to look at recent superspeedway races (not just Talladega) and the drivers that have consistently put themselves in a good position to win races. Obviously, historical trends do not guarantee continuance but it does shed light on the drivers that are not making mistakes which is imperative for this style of racing. In looking at our superspeedway dynamic averages, perhaps there are no surprises in the top 5 names which include Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Ross Chastain. I think I mentioned each of those driver’s success at Talladega above with the exception of Logano who remains one of the best in the business at this style of racing.

If we look at the list more closely to potentially identify outliers, I would make notable mentions towards Aric Almirola, Alex Bowman, and Erik Jones who are sitting right outside the top names described above. Almirola and Jones have some superspeedway reputation due to prior wins in their career. However, Alex Bowman is not a name that typically comes to mind for this type of racing and will probably stay off everyone’s radar after a relatively disappointing qualifying effort. Additional observations for our dynamic averages would tilt to the other end of the spectrum. Drivers that have shown very poor trends at the superspeedway events include names like Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Bubba Wallace which is somewhat surprising considering each of those drivers are former superspeedway winners.

Betting Targets

In superspeedway racing, bettors can make legitimate arguments for almost anyone and hope for the best. Personally, I am always going to look for an ROI sufficient lineup. I tend to lean towards Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney as your best options at Talladega among the favorites. Both drivers are outstanding superspeedway racers and have shown the ability to work together often as well. Despite my eagerness to chase value, I also like to have some heavy hitters on my lineup and the Team Penske duo is some of the best options on the board outside of Hamlin and Elliott.

As we look for better value throughout the remainder of the field, I am inclined to lean towards the talents of Martin Truex Jr, Erik Jones, and Aric Almirola as the drivers that meet the ROI sufficient threshold. All of those drivers have shown better superspeedway talent than most statistics or average finishing positions would suggest. Additionally, I would add that long shots like Ty Gibbs, Corey LaJoie, and Harrison Burton all deserve consideration for prop bets or potential lottery style payouts. If we are looking for the best value in the lower-tier options, I think Gibbs and LaJoie are your best bets.

2023 Draftkings GEICO 500 Optimal Lineup

2023 GEICO 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1600 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2000 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +3000 (.5 unit)
Martin Turex Jr +3000 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Stenhouse Jr +300 Group C Winner (Chastain, Wallace, Larson)(1 unit)
Harrison Burton +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +240 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
B.J. McLeod +200 finishes Top 20 (1 unit)
Number of drivers to finish on lead lap over (-110) 23.5 (2 units)