2023 FR8 208 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 18th, 2023. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series will feature an exciting double-header Saturday afternoon at Atlanta Motor Speedway. As many are aware, Atlanta Motor Speedway went through a major reconfiguration and repave prior to the 2022 season. The track changes included increased banking and tons of grip which turned the 1.5 mile surface into a mini-superspeedway. As a result, both of this Saturday’s races should be extremely entertaining from a spectator standpoint as we anticipate Daytona-ish style racing and high rewards betting plays with our 2023 FR8 208 race picks!

Through the first two races this season, bettors have watched the overall race favorites win both races with Zane Smith at Daytona and Kyle Busch’s victory at Las Vegas. For this week’s return to the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway, I expect that we will see our first, perhaps somewhat, surprise winner of the season. While Zane Smith will be among the favorites again this Saturday, the odds are simply stacked against him to repeat the trend of outright favorites winning in the Truck Series. It’s about time for luck to turn back in favor of the bettors and I’m hoping that is the case for Saturday’s truck race.

However, I will admit that the likelihood for one of the heavy favorites winning is probably higher than most would like to admit especially with John Hunter Nemechek returning to the #17 truck this week as a part-time entry with TRICON Garage. Nemechek has been an excellent truck series driver throughout his career and will jump behind the wheel of the team (formerly Team DGR) that was very strong at the superspeedways last season. Speaking of TRICON Garage, they also return the defending race winner at Atlanta in 2022 in Corey Heim. Heim won last year’s inaugural race on the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway. At the time, Heim was driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports but has moved over to the #11 truck this season. Heim is among the others like Zane Smith and John Hunter Nemechek who are the primary group of favorites going into Saturday.

Betting Strategy

As stated earlier, the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway produces superspeedway style racing which means there will be plentiful opportunities for less favorable names to compete this weekend. In simply playing the numbers game, we are likely to see a name that is not mentioned above in victory lane. In any racing that produces superspeedway action which equates to volatile risk, we must ensure that our race picks are producing the highest ROI/value returns as possible. Therefore my major focus throughout the weekend will be towards taking aim at those drivers with the most valuable betting odds based on correlative winning probabilities.

Betting Targets

Based on team performances at the superspeedways in 2022 and the way trucks performed at Daytona combined with consideration of current betting odds, I am led to believe guys like Stewart Friesen, Nick Sanchez, Tyler Ankrum, Tanner Gray, and Jack Wood are the drivers that have the best value/probability averages. Obviously some of those drivers are not well-known Truck Series names, however guys like Sanchez, Gray, and Wood are in excellent equipment and have shown the ability to run upfront at these superspeedway style events where equipment/horsepower could produce the track position opportunity to make a run at a victory.

I mentioned the group of favorites above but it’s worth calling out that guys like Christian Eckes, Ty Majeski, Grant Enfinger, and Ben Rhodes have shown the speed/experience to warrant betting consideration. Personally, I just don’t like the betting value towards any of those drivers especially when you consider veterans like Crafton, Rhodes, and Enfinger have a horrible win percentage in recent years. As a result, I am mostly avoiding the overall favorites and looking for betting value which starts about mid-pack. My favorites that warrant betting consideration in all formats include Nick Sanchez and Jack Wood. Both drivers produce extremely high ceilings and have considerable value that will make them each viable options in all formats.

Draftkings FR8 208 Optimal Lineup

2023 FR8 208 Race Picks

**Final**

Christian Eckes +800 (1 unit)
Nick Sanchez +1800 (.75 unit)
Tyler Ankrum +3000 (.5 unit)
Tanner Gray +3000 (.5 unit)
Jack Wood +10000 (.25 units)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Nick Sanchez -115 over Layne Riggs (2 units)