2023 Food City 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday September 15th, 2023. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to step into the primetime spotlight late Friday with the running of the Food City 300 at Bristol Motor Speedway. Unlike the Craftsman Truck Series and Cup Series which are both already in the thick of the postseason, the Xfinity Series’ playoffs will begin Friday night which means 12 drivers will be fighting over the next several weeks to keep their championship hopes alive. However, the beginning of the playoffs is not the biggest storyline going into Friday. Instead, all eyes will be on Dale Earnhardt Jr who will return to Bristol to compete for the first time since retiring back in 2017.

As many are aware, active Cup Series drivers are not allowed to compete in the Xfinity Series once the playoffs begin. Obviously, Earnhardt Jr does not fall into that criteria and he will join a number of part-time entries that includes Trevor Bayne, Derek Kraus, and others. Needless to say, Earnhardt’s sheer popularity as one of the biggest names in the sport’s history will make this race intriguing on many different fronts from a fan perspective. From a betting perspective, I don’t believe there are any clear betting favorites that deserve a high degree of confidence. The Xfinity Series has not competed at Bristol since last year and there are not any venues that closely compare to the half-mile bullring to formulate expectations.

If we look at the track history at Bristol Motor Speedway, the last 19 winners in the Xfinity Series consists of current Cup Series drivers. As a result, we do not have any former series winners competing Friday night or drivers that have proven to be a justified betting favorite. If you read yesterday’s Truck Series preview, I put a heavy emphasis on driving styles that are favorable for succeeding at Bristol. Those characteristics surround incredible car control and being able to carry maximum speed with limited rear grip. I believe that is why we see a correlating trend of the top talents consistently winning these Xfinity Series races whether they are current or future Cup Series talents. As a result, I think we have to stick with those driving characteristics when formulating our betting picks again on Friday!

Betting Strategy

In yesterday’s Truck Series preview, I broke down many reasons that I believe handicapping races at Bristol are difficult, especially in the lower series. Basically, the smallest mistakes can lead to non-recoverable issues. Last night’s UNOH 200 produced a great example. Zane Smith led the majority of the 2nd stage and finished 2nd in the stage after staying out on old tires. However, Smith was penalized for pitting outside of the box and lost all of his track position. Because passing is very difficult at Bristol, Smith was never in contention for the rest of the evening and even lost a lap in the closing moments as lap traffic piled up. The point is that simple mistakes at Bristol can lead to big consequences and the same can be said for pit strategy that can be used to flip track position.

Therefore, I encourage bettors to stay conservative even if we see match-ups or specific bets that yield high confidence. Likewise, I think it is also worth mentioning that the race schedule for Friday’s Food City 300 will be very similar to Thursday’s trucks schedule. Practice and qualifying will take place Friday afternoon leaving just a few short hours before the green flag. Therefore, bettors may want to get the majority of their bets in before on-track activities begin. As we have seen throughout the year, odds makers are not always great at getting odds reposted in the short windows between qualifying and the green flag for these same day formats.

Betting Targets

In reviewing prior Bristol races and performances at other tracks that produce some of the driving style characteristics that we desire, I think it is worth noting that Justin Allgaier’s performance stats have been incredible at Bristol despite failing to get to victory lane. Allgaier has posted a 125 average driver rating or better in each of his last 4 races at Bristol which is simply something we rarely see. It does not take a rocket scientist to understand that Allgaier will eventually find victory lane at Bristol if he keeps posting those types of numbers. As a result, I give Allgaier my nod of the cap as the deserving favorite on Friday. Unfortunately, Allgaier’s current betting odds do not leave a lot of room for value. As a result, I believe he may be best suited as a H2H betting target against other favorites like John Hunter Nemechek and Josh Berry.

Another driver that I believe has a high ceiling for Friday includes Sam Mayer in the #1 car for J.R. Motorsports. Mayer is having a breakout season with two wins already. Many may not remember but Mayer’s first NASCAR win came in the Truck Series at Bristol. In fact, that surprise win at the time is really what got Mayer going with better opportunities. In Xfinity Series competition, Mayer has always been really solid at Bristol and I believe based on the way this team is starting to perform, this could be another breakout opportunity at one of Mayer’s better tracks. As a result, Mayer can be targeted in all betting formats. While Mayer is my 2nd favorite pick behind Allgaier, I will also mention that guys like Brandon Jones and Anthony Alfredo appear to have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Jones is having a disastrous season and is probably worth fading most weeks. However, he has been a top performer at Bristol in recent years. Meanwhile, Alfredo is a bottom-tier talent that is really good at Bristol and likely has top 10 upside.

2023 Draftkings Food City 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Food City 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +350 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +800 (1 unit)
Brandon Jones +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Justin Allgaier -130 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
Riley Herbst +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Derek Kraus +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)