2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday August 6th, 2023. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: USA

This weekend NASCAR’s Cup Series will make their lone stop of the season at Michigan International Speedway for the running of the FireKeepers Casino 400. Last week, Chris Buescher secured a playoff spot with his upset victory at Richmond Raceway. Buscher’s victory cashed at 40-1 odds making it one of the biggest underdog cashes of the season. On Sunday, the opportunity for another underdog victory will be prevalent especially when you consider how many teams are desperate to secure their playoff hopes. Therefore, Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 should be an entertaining race from all viewing and betting perspectives.

As many are aware, Michigan International Speedway is a large two-mile oval that produces extremely high speeds. The banking at both ends of the speedway sits at a modest 18 degrees which yields very “loose” handling conditions behind the wheel. To put it in layman’s terms, this is one of those tracks where you have to keep your foot in the gas especially with the Next Gen Car that is more sensitive to momentum (low horsepower). As a result, we know there are some drivers that excel at these specific racing conditions that Michigan produces. However, we should also keep in mind that strategy is also an important factor at Michigan as well. Because of the track’s size and relatively mild tire wear, it provides opportunities for teams to gamble with strategy on pit road. As a result, we should keep an open mind towards long shots and other prop bets that have high return potential.

While driver input and strategy will be important on Sunday, we cannot overlook the biggest ingredient for success at Michigan which is “speed.” To be slightly more specific, Michigan is one of those “horsepower” venues where manufacturer performance gets a lot of attention. Perhaps more so in the Next Gen Car that has less amount of chassis adjustments, the raw speed component for Sunday’s field will purely be decided by the teams with the best aerodynamics and horsepower. Just last week, Ford teams had one of their best weekends of the season at Richmond Raceway. However, we have also seen the Ford manufacturers struggle all year at the “horsepower” style venues and I would be willing to bet that Ford’s success from last week will be short lived. Therefore, bettors must also ensure that our bets reside with the teams/drivers that have shown optimal “speed” throughout the season.

Michigan International Speedway – Betting Notes

• Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Michigan including an incredible run that has produced 5 victories in the last 7 races.
• Kyle Larson (3), Joey Logano (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Busch are all former winners at Michigan.
• Kyle Larson won 3 straight races at Michigan from 2016-2017.
• Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (8.0) of all drivers.
• Despite not having any wins, Martin Truex Jr has finished 6th or better in 7 of his last 10 races at Michigan.
• Denny Hamlin (2 career wins) has finished 6th or better in each of the last 5 races at Michigan.
• Tyler Reddick’s best finish at Michigan is 18th in 4 career starts.
• Ross Chastain’s best finish at Michigan is 24th in 5 career starts.
• Ford teams have won the last 8 races at Michigan.

Practice Notes

On Saturday, Cup Series teams had the opportunity to practice and qualify in preparation for tomorrow’s FireKeepers Casino 400. After both sessions, Christopher Bell earned his 2nd pole award of the season. Bell posted a blazing fast lap of 193.382mph to edge out Ross Chastain for the top spot. In reality, I’m not sure there were any big surprises on Saturday. Like I expected, the Ford teams struggled for the most part. Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher once again appeared to be the best of the Ford camp but I don’t think they have the speed to win without strategy.

In practice, William Byron continued to flex speed which has been the norm in practices throughout the year. Byron had the best speed overall but it was not by a wide margin. Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and Martin Truex Jr were all really fast on the stopwatch. Byron and Bell definitely had the best early lap speed. However after about 10 laps, things were very consistent among the majority of the top runners in practice. Needless to say, I think that points to how important track position will be on Sunday. Overall, the Toyotas definitely had the speed advantage when comparing the manufacturers. I thought all the Toyotas were really strong and I think they may warrant the sharp betting consideration on Sunday.

Betting Targets

Aside from Kevin Harvick and his incredible resume at Michigan, I don’t have enough confidence to bet on any of the Ford teams this week despite the fact they have won 8 straight races and they were strong last week at Richmond. The Ford teams have consistently struggled at the horsepower tracks this season by a significant margin and I just don’t believe they have made up enough ground to warrant high confidence this week. In fact, I will likely be looking for betting opportunities to fade most of the Ford teams and drivers if we can find the right targets in opposing match-ups.

For the outright victory, I tend to lean towards the Toyotas who have produced the best outright speed throughout the season. The Toyotas were also really strong at Michigan in last year’s race which should benefit both Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr who are performing better than anyone in the Cup Series right now. Obviously, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and a few others are top-tier threats at a place like Michigan which deserve rightful consideration. However, I would just lean with the likes of Truex and Hamlin out of the “favorites” group with the best possibilities to win. After winning the pole on Saturday, Bell has also emerged as a contender but I fear we may have missed the value on the #20.

Behind the group of favorites is where our betting value increases whether we are talking about H2H match-ups or prop bet opportunities. Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace are two guys from the Toyota camp that should produce sharp H2H value. Wallace finished 2nd in last year’s only race at Michigan in the Next Gen Car. Further on back, Erik Jones and Austin Dillon are some low-tier drivers that could produce enough upside to target in H2H or prop bet formats. Dillon saved us from a terrible day last Sunday at Richmond by cashing a near 5-1 prop bet (Top 10 finish) and he definitely has similar upside again this week. Meanwhile, Jones has always produced solid results at Michigan despite driving inferior equipment. As a bottom-tier option, Jones could be worthy of consideration in most match-ups.

2023 Draftkings FireKeepers Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +800 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1000 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1400 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1600 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -115 over William Byron (2 units)
Christopher Bell -130 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger -115 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Erik Jones +450 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +1400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)