2023 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 19th,2023. 3:49PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FOX

On Sunday, NASCAR’s best drivers return to one of the most difficult and prestigious road courses in the country when the green flag waves for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. The 3.41 mile and 20-turn road course, known as COTA, has been a huge success for NASCAR since it was added to the schedule just two years ago. In last year’s race, Ross Chastain earned his 1st career victory in a thrilling overtime battle against AJ Allmendinger and Alex Bowman in what was one of the most exciting finishes of the year. On Sunday, NASCAR returns to Austin for the first road course race of the year and we are ready to breakdown the best betting plays for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix!

One of the important changes to the road courses this season is the fact that NASCAR will no longer throw cautions at the stage breaks. If you remember, we covered this rule change before the season started. NASCAR removed the cautions during the stage breaks at the road courses because they limited the amount of strategy that impacted the race. Old school bettors may remember road course races for the various strategies plays that often coincided with these events and the removal of the caution flags during the stage breaks will undoubtedly bring more strategy options back into play. As a result, bettors must consider strategy impacts, to a heavier degree, when betting Sunday’s return to COTA.

Unlike most weekends, Cup Series’ teams and drivers did get an opportunity for a full practice session on Friday. In practice, Tyler Reddick was the guy that posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 92.989mph. As most bettors recall, Reddick was the breakout driver of 2022 at the road courses. Reddick scored victories at Road America and at the Indianapolis G.P (road course) and was the only driver to score multiple wins at the road courses in 2022. Reddick backed-up his strong practice with a 2nd place qualifying effort and will enter Sunday as one of the overall favorites. Reddick will start beside William Byron who won the pole on Saturday with a lap of 93.882mph. Byron has been the breakout driver thus far this season. Interestingly, William Byron has scored 9 career poles and 4 of the 5 most recent pole wins have all come at road course venues. Therefore, perhaps Byron is a slightly underrated threat going into Sunday especially on the heels of an impressive start to the season.

Betting Strategy

Personally, I think all road course events offer sharp H2H value if you can find the right match-ups. Unlike most venues where equipment and setup are so important, the driver makes the majority of the lap time at the road course venues and that is usually advantageous for bettors if you simply handicap these races primarily by the driver skill set. Obviously, bad luck and mistakes can still happen just like any other week. Perhaps more than ever, it is difficult for drivers to overcome mistakes at road courses where track position is critically important. However, if we can avoid bad luck, this should be one of those events where we can highlight the drivers’ road course strengths and weaknesses to determine where value lies within betting match-ups and be relatively aggressive in our betting approach. As a result, expect more units focused on match-ups this week and better ROI plays for win (futures) bets.

Dynamic Averages – Road Courses

I believe our dynamic averages for the road courses is an important tool for our handicapping formula this week. Since our dynamic averages cover the last 5 races at road courses, I believe it is a perfect measurement of how drivers performed at the road course races in 2022 with the Next Gen Car. As many are aware, historical averages at road courses were often biased towards the better equipment. Equipment is not nearly as important in the Next Gen Car because teams are limited in the type of changes that can be manufactured opposed to the old car. As a result, our dynamic averages from the Next Gen Car from last year’s road course display a solid measurement for how drivers have performed most recently at these types of venues in the Next Gen Car.

As you see below, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Michael McDowell are the only 3 drivers that have averaged a triple digit rating at the road courses over the last 5 races. While Elliott remains sidelined with an injury, Reddick perhaps emerges into the number 1 spot but I was extremely surprised to see McDowell rated so high on this list. Obviously, McDowell is known for his road course skills but I must admit I was surprised to see his metrics in this breakdown. In fact, McDowell has finished 8th or better in 4 of his last 5 starts at road course venues which strengthens the betting case for McDowell this weekend. In reviewing more names in close proximity to the top guys, AJ Allmendinger and Kyle Larson are obvious well-known road course talents while guys like Daniel Suarez and Chris Buescher have surprisingly performed well at the road course venues.

*Loop data averages from the last 5 road course races

DRIVER	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	114.7	4.2	10.0	6.2	74	121	460
Tyler Reddick	110.8	3.8	10.4	9.0	51	77	447
Michael McDowell	104.1	6.2	10.4	7.2	13	14	460
Chris Buescher	97.4	10.8	6.6	14.0	27	4	460
Daniel Suarez	96.1	9.6	15.0	11.8	21	47	455
AJ Allmendinger	93.1	14.0	8.2	12.8	34	27	460
Kyle Larson	88.8	11.0	17.8	14.8	30	31	426
Austin Cindric	88.3	9.0	9.6	13.2	5	0	460
Noah Gragson	87.5	29.0	23.0	15.0	1	0	112
Christopher Bell	86.7	19.4	13.2	14.6	17	19	460
Ryan Blaney	82.3	14.2	18.6	13.4	7	21	460
Joey Logano	79.2	10.6	14.2	16.0	6	46	460
Kevin Harvick	78.9	23.0	12.2	16.4	6	4	438
Ross Chastain	78.6	13.6	19.2	15.2	6	3	451
William Byron	76.7	15.6	18.8	17.2	13	0	453
Chase Briscoe	75.9	10.2	16.8	16.0	3	16	460
Austin Dillon	74.3	17.8	19.8	16.8	2	6	457
Martin Truex Jr	71.8	22.4	20.0	16.6	4	0	460
Alex Bowman	70.2	16.5	18.5	18.0	3	0	327
Kyle Busch	69.4	13.0	21.0	19.2	12	0	459
Brad Keselowski	67.0	18.2	19.2	19.6	10	3	456
Justin Haley	62.9	19.0	15.6	21.6	6	0	460
Denny Hamlin	62.3	17.0	19.0	20.4	3	1	460
Erik Jones	61.8	30.4	16.8	20.2	7	1	460
Ty Dillon	60.5	30.0	23.6	21.8	0	0	434
Ty Gibbs	58.8	19.3	21.7	21.7	3	0	288
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	54.0	29.8	18.2	22.8	0	0	460
Harrison Burton	52.8	23.0	21.8	23.4	0	1	459
Bubba Wallace	50.5	21.6	23.6	24.8	0	0	344
Corey LaJoie	50.2	31.6	25.0	26.2	2	0	446
Aric Almirola	47.5	26.2	24.8	28.2	4	0	398

Practice Observations

I mentioned earlier that Tyler Reddick was the fastest guy in Friday’s practice session. What I may have failed to mention is that Reddick posted the best 5 and 10 lap consecutive averages as well. Therefore, Reddick’s fast time was not any type of one hit wonder. Behind Reddick, last year’s winner Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch were among the drivers that appeared to be very strong on the speed charts. Busch is piloting the same #8 that Reddick had so much success with last year and perhaps that should be accounted for in this weekend’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix.

To make things brief, I will say that William Byron and Kyle Larson were among others that looked pretty strong in terms of lap times. I was also surprised to see Bubba Wallace much higher on the speed charts than most would expect. Wallace has never shown any great signs at the road courses but was a top 10 car in practice. Meanwhile drivers that we expected to be strong like Martin Truex Jr, AJ Allmendinger, and Daniel Suarez, did not show the speed that we expected to see from those talents. All 3 of those drivers were trending in the wrong direction going into Sunday.

Betting Targets

In review of current betting odds, I agree that Tyler Reddick should be Sunday’s outright favorite but I disagree with the 3.5 to 1 betting odds he is currently receiving. I’m not sure if we should have a 3.5 to 1 betting favorite in any Cup Series race with the Next Gen Car so I’m led to believe Reddick is unplayable from a futures (win) standpoint especially considering strategy could be an even bigger factor this week. In my opinion, AJ Allmendinger is the best road course talent in tomorrow’s field behind Reddick. The problem with the case for Allmendinger is that Kaulig Racing’s Cup Series program has struggled heavily this season so I’m not sure if I can back the Dinger at “favorite” style odds for those reasons. Instead, I am leaning towards William Byron and Ross Chastain as the skillful favorites that make the most “betting” sense among the favorites.

As stated earlier, I strongly believe H2H match-ups will produce the most value this weekend. Alex Bowman and Denny Hamlin are some strong intermediate options in match-ups. Hamlin actually took our top spot in our dynamic averages over the last 5 races with a 101.9 average rating. Hamlin’s road course skills have improved tenfold in the last few years and he is a far cry better than those drivers in his current odds range. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman is one of those intermediate options that is a much-better road course driver than most perceive. Bowman has been exceptional at COTA on the long-runs and Sunday’s race has a high probability to play into Bowman’s strength. Consider both Bowman and Hamlin options that produce great ROI in all formats.

Deeper options in the form of H2H plays include guys like Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher. Both drivers are much better road course talents than current betting odds suggests.

Draftkings EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Optimal Lineup

2023 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Race Picks

*Final*

William Byron +650 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1000 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +1600 (.75 unit)
Michael McDowell +4000 (.5 unit)
Denny Hamlin +5000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -140 over Jimmie Johnson (3 units)
Bubba Wallace -115 over Jenson Button (3 units)
Tyler Reddick -130 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Michael McDowell +200 over Daniel Suarez (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +900 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +1400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)